This Week's Weather Forecasting 12th - 16th March 2012

[JennyLeez]

It’s not looking quite as rainy today for New Zealand as it originally looked.

Going into this past weekend, it looked like Monday was going to be a very wet day.  It will still be a somewhat showery day, but not nearly as wet as it looked 48 hours ago.

So, here’s what to expect;

For the North Island, showers will ease as we head into this afternoon.  Some brief heavy falls could be about the Coromandel Peninsula early this morning, but those could be gone as early as mid-morning.

The showers will ease across the west and south first, with Waikato, Taranaki and Wellington standing the best chance of seeing a dry afternoon.  By late this afternoon, just a few passing showers should be left about Auckland, The Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty.

By the time we get to this evening, a few passing showers will still be possible about Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.  Otherwise, most of the island will be looking at a settled, but somewhat muggy evening.

For the South Island, a few showers will hang around Nelson, Canterbury and Marlborough this morning and then clear out this afternoon.

Then it will be the far south getting wet.

Showers are expected to push into Southland this afternoon and then move into Otago for this evening.

By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph
Weatherwatch

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[Te Puke Weather]

You are right there, muggy night so far here in Te Puke, Humidity is 87% and the current temp is 19.5c @ 9:02pm

[TokWW]

Humidity 98% here in Tokoroa and 16.3ºC outside and steady light rain. 

[ato2]

Different story my side: cool, clear evening, 14.5 degrees at the airport, humidity around 85%. Almost calm. Saturn rising, Mars a bit of the way up the sky.

[Te Puke Weather]

11:30 pm on the 12.3.2012 and it 19.6c outside, no rain, light winds from the SW, Humidity 78%

[Dusty]

A large high is moving towards the country and will bring more sun, less wind and less rain this week to New Zealand.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the high - or anticyclone - will lift the air pressure over the country and that usually brings in settled weather.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says it won't be perfectly sunny for everyone though.  "Around the edges the high will be knocked around a bit - so a weak front is likely to push in to the south during Wednesday bringing wind and rain or showers.  Easterlies will also pick up a little in the Far North at times and some cloudy areas are expected in coastal areas - but for the most part the next five to seven days look settled".

Mr Duncan says most regions should see "great Autumn weather" this week.

The high does bring with it some cloudy periods, which tend to affect coastal areas and regions closer to sea level.

Daytime highs will be back to slightly higher levels too, roughly 20 to 25 degrees for many areas - although some areas further south are expected to have a few cooler days thanks to that weak front mid-week.

However overnight lows will remain at the cooler levels as the length of the nights nears the same length as daylight hours - which means less daytime heating and more time for the heat to escape at night.

- WeatherWatch.co.nz

[TokWW]

That's good, we need a settled week of "nice" days.

[Te Puke Weather]

A large high which will lie over the country for the next five days is almost entirely removing the risk of severe weather...almost.

The high will stop most rain clouds from spreading across the country - and will flatten out the air pressure - which means lighter winds, generally speaking.

But the central area of the high - where winds are at their lightest and where rain is less likely - only just covers the entire country.  That means the edges (Far North and Deep South especially) are vulnerable to being exposed to the weather surrounding the high, which is often windier and cloudier.

The only area of concern for severe weather is the south western corner of the South Island - mostly around Fiordland where heavy rain and strong winds could make for a rough day on Wednesday - but certainly nothing out of the ordinary for the region.

Parts of Southland may be a bit windy on Wednesday but well below warning threshold.

At this stage the only areas that may experience gale force winds will be Stewart Island on Wednesday.

Those winds, to a much lesser degree, may push into central New Zealand on Thursday (Wellington for example) but again will be well below warning threshold.

The high is predicted to last until at least the weekend.


- WeatherWatch.co.nz

[Tony]

Great news, we've had some nice days down here, though with a definite Autumnal feel to them.

[TokWW]

It was sunny all day here but that easterly breeze made it feel cold outside despite the sun. Only reached 21.1ºC here today, thought it would get to at least 22, possibly 23deg.  Autumn has arrived, but so has the settled weather which is a bonus!

[Te Puke Weather]

Like someone pushing their finger into the side of an inflated balloon a front will today push into the high currently over New Zealand - and while it won't pop it, it will let some air out.

The fronts, associated with a low well south of NZ in the Southern Ocean, will bring in rain and showers later today and overnight for Southland and parts of Otago.

The isobars will also squeeze up over the South Island and central parts of New Zealand.   Gales are unlikely for most places but they are possible about Stewart Island and through the Southern Alps.  Those brisk winds will also build around Wellington later today and early Thursday.

But by the end of Thursday the high will start to inflate once again - and Friday and Saturday both look more settled, ahead of the next low which will develop around Sunday or Monday in the Tasman Sea.

- WeatherWatch.co.nz

[JennyLeez]

Major Aussie rainstorms are set to return this week across northern regions thanks to at least three tropical lows - one of which is likely to become a tropical cyclone - and WeatherWatch.co.nz says the rain will do its best to head towards New Zealand too.

The incoming rain for already soaked parts of Australia is likely to cause more flooding issues with the risk extending from Darwin across Queensland and parts of New South Wales.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says this weekend a new low will form in the Tasman Sea and will deepen into a significant low and will have some connections to the big rainmakers in Australia and the sub-tropics.

Its natural path will be to take it towards New Zealand early next week - in between a high to our south west and another to our east.

A few models show a high chance of at least a couple of days of heavy rain - while others show a 60% chance of rain or showers next week in the upper and western North Island, coupled with building nor'easters.

Either way, the weather next week looks significantly different to this week.

The models do also indicate a significant surge in tropical activity - as we continue through what is traditionally the peak of the cyclone season.

WeatherWatch.co.nz predicts the heavy rain forecast for northern and eastern Australia will also move into the Pacific Islands to our north and north west over the coming 10 days.

Weatherwatch

[Te Puke Weather]

Going to get wet next wet... O joy   :-[

[Deano]

Ditto.

[David]

Bring it on, might help boost the lowish rain total so far this year (144mm here)

[Te Puke Weather]

Wow you total is low for the year, ours here in Te Puke is up to 256.2mm

[JennyLeez]

Update 15th March 2012

- two incoming systems look set to bring heavy rain to both northern and western New Zealand as early as this Sunday - with some models predicting rain, showers and strong winds could linger for many regions throughout much of next week.
- The long range models show not only a front moving in from the south west towards the West Coast, but also a new low predicted to form north west of Cape Reinga this weekend - and could prompt rain warnings as it slowly moves over the country and quickly deepens.
- the upper North Island and lower and western South Island will see the rain clouds and winds increasing on Sunday and into Monday.
- the incoming low has the potential to grow into a storm with gales and heavy rain.  "This predicted low will be fuelled by sucking down warm, humid, tropical air - but it will also be slow moving, held up - or cradled - by large highs to the south, west and east of New Zealand".

Weatherwatch

[Te Puke Weather]

Windier weather coming next week

Posted by hitadmin on Thu, 15/03/2012 - 14:03
Filed in:National News
While the jury is still out on a possible rain event next week the models are today still suggesting next week will be windier - especially for the top half of the North Island - then, the rest of the nation.

A shallow but large area of low pressure is predicted to form to the north and north west of New Zealand this weekend - while at the same time a large high is expected to move in south of this low.

Between the two pressure systems a strengthening easterly flow is forecast for the top half of the North Island, bringing windy weather to Auckland, Northland, the eastern Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula.

The easterlies are likely to develop gently on Saturday and Sunday then strengthen on Monday and Tuesday.  Damaging winds are not currently predicted.

On Wednesday a fairly breezy to brisk easterly flow should cover the North Island - but for the eastern South Island winds will be more from the north east - and will be fresh but not strong.

By Thursday the strongest winds should hug the North Island's entire eastern coastline while winds temporarily ease elsewhere.

But by next Friday a strong westerly change is likely across the entire country - heading into the weekend - as a large low approaches.

And what about that forecast rain?  Well the models are still picking some bands of heavy sub-tropical rain - but they aren't sure about exactly where that rain will fall.  Most data we've analised shows the risk if greater just to the north east of of the North Island - and although it looks as though it may mostly fall offshore there is a risk to those regions that hug the north eastern coastline of the North Island, from Northland to Gisborne.  One to watch.

Heavy rain is also likely along the West Coast on Sunday.

Confidence in the accuracy of the models should lift significantly by late Friday.

There is still uncertainty around the incoming rain and winds - so keep up to date with our daily news updates at www.weatherwatch.co.nz


- WeatherWatch.co.nz