This Week's Weather Forecasting 12th - 16th November 2012

[Te Puke Weather]

Issued by The MetService

Monday
Northland to north Taranaki, also Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Taupo
Occasional showers, but fine spells increasing tomorrow.

Gisborne and Hawkes Bay
Mainly fine with high cloud today. Tomorrow, isolated showers, then rain spreading north from afternoon.

South Taranaki and Taihape to Wellington, also Wairarapa and Marlborough
Outbreaks of rain, heavy and squally with hail for a time tomorrow morning.

Nelson, Buller, Westland and Fiordland
Mainly fine in Nelson and Fiordland. Showers elsewhere clearing in Westland overnight and elsewhere tomorrow morning.

Canterbury
Rain, heavy at times, easing to showers in the morning and clearing tomorrow afternoon.

Otago and Southland
Isolated showers clearing early tomorrow morning, then mainly fine.

Chatham Islands
Cloudy. Occasional rain developing in the morning.

Tuesday
Rain or showers for most of the North Island. Mainly fine for the South Island, but isolated afternoon and evening showers inland.

Wednesday
Rain or showers for most of the North Island, but clearing from Gisborne to Wairarapa. Mainly fine for the South Island, but isolated afternoon and evening showers inland.

Thursday
Rain or showers for most of the North Island. Mainly fine for the South Island, but isolated afternoon and evening showers inland.

Friday
Rain or showers over the North Island clearing, then mainly fine. Drizzle gradually spreading north in the west of the South Island, then turning to rain south of the Glaciers, high cloud increasing in the east.

Chatham Islands
Unsettled, with some rain or showers on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Southerlies tending easterly on Tuesday. Easterlies dying out on Wednesday, westerlies developing on Thursday.

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[OhauitiWeather]

A shot of cold air is expect to spread across the South Island today and tonight.
 
As we mentioned earlier, this could be the spark that sets off a few thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening about eastern Canterbury and eastern Otago.
 
This new air mass is cold enough that some of the precipitation may come down in the form of flakes rather than liquid. Current indications lead WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters and MetService forecasters to believe brief period of snow is possible for the Canterbury High Country during the overnight hours. Accumulations of 4 to 6 cm are possible above 900m with lesser amounts down to 600m. No snow is expected below 600m.
 
As a result, government forecaster MetService has issued the following Road Snow Warnings:
 
Lewis Pass- A period of rain is expected Monday morning with accumulations of 1cm of snow possible near the summit

Porters Pass- Rain is expected to develop this evening and turn to snow for a time Monday morning. 4 to 6cm of snow is expected to accumulate near the summit during Monday morning with lesser amounts further down.

Lindis Pass- Patchy rain is expected this evening with 1cm of snow possibly accumulating near the summit.

Farmers should be aware that cold, snow and breezy conditions may also put stress on livestock.
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...d-blast-south-island

[OhauitiWeather]

The same cold front that is expected to bring the cold change to the South Island tonight, will be the focus for showers about the North Island tomorrow.
 
The day is expected to start with showers scattered about much of the island. As we get into the afternoon hours, the precipitation will likely become more focused on the eastern and southern parts of the island. This is thanks in part to a piece of energy that will move from west to east across the island during the day. That will help to support the development of precipitation and could actually lead to some brief heavy rain for Hawkes Bay and Gisborne during the late afternoon and evening.
 
On the Mainland, the day will start pretty chilly with snow in the higher elevations of the Canterbury High Country. Snow levels could fall to 600m, but most of the accumulations should stay above 900m. Government forecaster MetService has issued Road Snow Warnings for Lewis Pass, Porters Pass and Lindis Pass.
 
The spotty precipitation about the upper South Island should move off fairly early tomorrow, leaving behind dry, breezy, cool and cloudy conditions, although the skies should brighten as the day wears on. The lower Mainland is likely to see a mix of sun and clouds with a rather chilly start.
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/a-wet-monday-parts-ni

[OhauitiWeather]

Often we are looking for where the most interesting weather will be being weather geeks, that may entail hail, lightning and strong winds. But where will the sunniest and most settled weather be tomorrow and Wednesday?
 
The winner or winners I should say are Southland, Otago and along the West Coast of the South Island. Tomorrow conditions are likely to be sunny and settled in these regions, northeasterly breezes may pick up a little along the Otago coastline in the afternoon. There is also the chance of an isolated shower or two about the ranges late afternoon and evening running down the centre of the South Island and about some inland hills in Otago, often these are the result of such settled still conditions and warming of the lands surface.
 
For Wednesday inland areas right up and down the South Island look to be the most settled with light winds. In coastal areas, winds may pick up a little during the afternoon with east to northeast winds on the east coast and west to southwest winds on the West Coast. There is a chance of isolated showers late afternoon and evening in inland parts of the South Island once again however.
 
As to reasons why the North Island is not looking as settled, on Tuesday a broad area of low pressure lies over the Island. To start on Tuesday it may appear settled with some sun in the west however in the afternoon showers are likely to develop possibly becoming heavy and thundery in many places especially about the Central North Island into the Waikato and up into Auckland. The east coast from Gisborne through to Wairarapa will be dogged by showers and cool south to southeasterly winds for most of the day.
 
Wednesday has the broad area of low pressure mentioned above slowly moving out east, rain heavy at times will ease during the day on the east coast of the North Island. Elsewhere has a the odd shower easing and clearing in the afternoon, breezy west to southwest winds for the rest of the day with cloudy and sunny areas.
 

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...-sunniest-weather-be

[JennyLeez]

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:17am 13-Nov-2012
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN: Gisborne, Hawkes Bay

FURTHER HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN HAWKES BAY AND SOUTHERN GISBORNE
TODAY
A trough lies just northeast of the North Island with a band of rain
covering Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Significant rainfall has already
affected northern Hawkes Bay and southern Gisborne overnight and
earlier this morning, with further periods of heavy rain expected
today. The largest amounts are likely about the hills and ranges
between Gisborne City and Mohaka ( and thats Wairoa alas )where another 30 to 60mm may
accumulate on top of what has already fallen. People in the area are
advised to watch for already swollen or rising streams and rivers,
and that surface flooding and slips are possible.

[OhauitiWeather]

Just when you think the weather might be settling down as we approach summer think again as this weekend is set to spoil quite a few outdoor plans
 
An incoming low is looming large and is on its way to move over the country on Saturday and its lasting effects will still be felt on Sunday.
 
Rain is moving over western and northern areas late Friday/early Saturday and at first it's looking promising out east.

It's just a false sense of security as rain should also spill eastwards over the divide over both islands and then if that's not enough a southerly following the front will drop temperatures yet again.
 
"It seems after a bit of a break fronts and lows are back in the picture and this weekend it's yet another in the series but perhaps with a bit of a bite" says weather analyst Richard Green.
 
Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says" I've just arrived back in the country and this sort of weather pattern was exactly what we were having before I left".
 
Both Mr Green and Mr Duncan say this isn't exceptional for spring but seems ongoing and disruptive for quite a few people and events across the nation."A lot of work goes into all sorts of events at this time of year but year after year they're vulnerable to all sorts of conditions" says Philip Duncan."The tour of Southland cycle race is a classic example and gets hit each time with a combination of sunny and warm breezes but also atrocious conditions. I wonder if organisers could perhaps alter the event on the calendar?"
 
Temperatures overall have remained a smidgen below normal for the early part of November as these frontal systems aren't allowing too much warmth to hang over the country.
 
Before the weekend arrives another front is moving across the country during Wednesday and Wednesday night. Nor' westers will see cloud thicken pretty smartly in western areas during the day and/ or night before the rain hits western and northern regions
 
WeatherWatch.co.nz believes this front will be shortlived but enough to certainly wet the concrete and more.
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...-spoil-weekend-plans

[OhauitiWeather]

Yesterday we announced that an incoming low could cause problems for outdoor events this weekend and at the moment the timing still appears to be on track as previously mentioned.
 
It's not overly vigorous however it's enough to bring rain and strong winds to almost all places however not all at once.
 
The depression appears to approach the country late on Friday and West Coasters are the first ones to see the clouds rolling in off the Tasman.
 
All western and northern areas should see clouds thicken and rain fall overnight Friday or Saturday morning with winds picking up pace.
 
There's still a chance of rain spilling over to eastern areas during Saturday which doesn't often happen ina nor' west flow.
 
When the front sweeps northwards temperatures will fall over southern and eastern areas later on Saturday and on Sunday with either showers or rain across these districts.
 
The amount of rain will vary from place to place but a decent dollop is likely for many rain guages and heaviest falls are likely to be out west.
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...-still-track-weekend

[OhauitiWeather]

Tomorrow will see a front move over the North Island while a couple of dags or showers if you will hanging out the back will affect the South Island.



To be a bit more specific the North Island is going to be mostly cloudy tomorrow in the west, the odd shower develops in the morning then in the afternoon winds change west to southwest. Expect showers to clear by evening. There is nothing resoundingly potent about this front, no heavy rain likely or strong winds. But just a fairly average day, good movie going weather if you can spare the time but for most the working week will grind on and give us all something to do.

Out east to start from Wairarapa to Gisborne the weather is likely to be sunny with some high cloud however. Wairarapa will start to cloud up in the afternoon though with the odd shower as the low associated with this front crosses over the North Island. Late afternoon and evening showers gradually move into Hawkes Bay and Gisborne as a southerly flow develops there.

In the South Island expect cloudy areas to develop in the morning for most in the south and east, there may be a few sunny areas to start also in some places. For the afternoon the odd shower is likely to get going in many places but expect plenty of dry periods to. There is a chance in inland areas of south Canterbury and Otago that one or two of those showers may become heavy.

For northern and western parts of the South Island expect sunny areas with some cloud, isolated showers will likely develop about hills and ranges later during the afternoon however then clearing at night.

Homepage image / 15th November 7pm rain map - weathermap.co.nz

 
By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...h-showers-about-many

[OhauitiWeather]

Cloud build ups with a few showers which could be heavy at times seem to be the main threat of rain across parts of the country today.
 
From the far north to the deep south these showers may form fairly quickly and then disappear as quickly as they arrived.
 
Decent sunshine is also in the mix but the instability of the atmosphere makes it tricky on where exactly these showers could form.
 
The foothills and ranges across inland areas seem to be the most likely but these could also spread close to the coastline as well.
 
Winds aren't anticipated to be very gusty but may pick up during some of the showers or downpours.
 
Temperatures are likely to be in the mid to high teens for most centres but there's a chance the 20 degree mark could be broken in places such as Alexandra or Blenheim.
 
Tomorrow an incoming low nears the nation but it seems many eastern areas should escape the wet stuff for the start of the weekend on Saturday.
 
Sunday looks fairly damp in plenty of places but again Gisborne down to Kaikoura could escape the worst of it all.
 
Just to recap about today, we should see sunshine with cloudy areas and the odd scattered heavy shower with temperatures near normal this afternoon.
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...rsday-clouds-forming

[OhauitiWeather]

Yes it’s the weekend and on que time for another low pressure system and associated front to cross the country, “hooray!” I hear you all exclaim. Well ok a bit of sarcasm there but now for the more serious information.



Friday sees a front move into the Tasman Sea from south of Tasmania, a northwesterly airflow begins to build over the country later in the day. Saturday has the front crossing New Zealand, western areas of both islands are likely to experience and receive most of the wet weather in the form of rain.
 
Sunday has the flow changing to the southwest brining cooler temperatures, showers are likely in most regions again however they will ease. A few showers will spread north along the east coasts of both islands during the day.
 
On Monday higher air pressures may bring some relief in the form of more settled weather.
 
WeatherWatch.co.nz analyst Aaron Wilkinson notes, “This low pressure system is not likely to bring any major severe weather however rain warnings are possible in the west of both islands for Saturday, also gale northwesterly winds may affect from Cook Strait through to Gisborne on Saturday preceding the front moving through on the day”.
 
Homepage image / 1pm 17th November rain map - weathermap.co.nz
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...ontal-system-and-low

[OhauitiWeather]

While the weather is quite settled and tomorrow is looking no different for most, a few late afternoon heat showers are likely about the Central North Island (CNI) and there is the low risk that one or two of these showers may become heavy and thundery before clearing at night.



These convective showers are generally as a result of settled conditions - that is one way to look at them in a positive light, a bit of relatively cold air aloft also helps the situation.

A similar weather pattern may occur about the ranges of North Otago and perhaps South Canterbury however the result of any showers turning thundery is a bit lower then up north, still, something to keep an eye on.

The second main feature about tomorrow is a front in the Tasman Sea moving towards the South Island, it is moving at a slightly more improved rate and will move onto the lower South Island tomorrow evening. This is likely to bring some rain or a few showers to Fiordland from then onwards.

Homepage image / 1pm 22nd November rain map - weathermap.co.nz

 
- By Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...ternoon-tomorrow-cni