Cyclone Sandra

[gabba]

Cyclone Sandra has formed into a Category 1 TC in the last 24 hours. Here's what the BOM have to say about it:

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:36 pm EST on Friday 8 March 2013
At 4 pm EST Friday, Tropical Cyclone Sandra (Category 1) with central pressure
989 hPa was located near latitude 14.9 south longitude 157.0 east, which is
about 770 km east northeast of Willis Island and 1090 km northeast of Mackay.

The cyclone is moving east northeast at about 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra, category 1, sits over the  eastern Coral Sea. Sandra
is expected to continue moving east-southeast during the next 48 hours while
intensifying. On Monday Sandra is expected to turn southward. Current
indications are that the system will remain well out to sea until at least the
middle of next week.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra currently poses no threat to the Australian coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm EST Friday.
[\quote]


Cyclone Track map is located here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

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[Weather Display]

models still all over the place on its future
ECMWF still has it coming down this way
if you want to bet on anything, bet on that one

[gabba]

Cyclone Sandra continues to strengthen as it moves East. Sandra is currently predicted to become category 3 by early morning tomorrow (next 12 hours)  and category 4 within the next 24 hours. During that period Sandra will move south eastwards:

Track Map as follows:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Further Details follow:

 
IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0646UTC 9 MARCH 2013

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Sandra was centred within 10 nautical miles of
 latitude fifteen decimal four south (15.4S)
 longitude one hundred and fifty eight decimal eight east (158.8E)
Recent movement : east southeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 60 knots near centre.
Central pressure: 980 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 220 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 220 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0600 UTC 10
March.

Winds above 64 knots developing within 50 nautical miles of centre with very
high to phenomenal seas and heavy swell by 1200 UTC 09 March.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre, increasing to 100
nautical miles of centre by 0000 UTC 10 March. High to very high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 220 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 220 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 09 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.0 south 160.0 east
                        Central pressure 961 hPa.
                        Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 10 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 16.6 south 160.9 east
                        Central pressure 947 hPa.
                        Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 09 March 2013.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[\quote]

[gabba]

TC Sandra has strengthened as expected to category 4 in the past 24 hours. It is now heading south to south east, and as it moves over cooler seas, is expected to weaken/

By 6am TC Sandra is expected to be at category 3 strength

Track Map as follows:

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

Further Details follow (www.usno.navy.mil):

100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 160.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER PAST
TWELVE HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY WRAPPING AROUND A
15NM RAGGED EYE. THIS IS READILY APPARENT IN A 092248Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE READILY VISIBLE EYE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS AMPLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WITHIN
A LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 19P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INCREASE TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A FURTHER
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
DIFFERENT SETS OF SOLUTIONS. GFS, GFDN AND NAVGEM FAVOR A SHARPER
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE ECMWF, EGRR AND JGSM
TEND TO SHOW A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DUE TO THIS BIFURCATION OF THE MODELS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION. DUE TO
THIS SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.

[gabba]

TC Sandra now heads SE, remining at category 4. It is currently forecast to travel down the west flank of New Caledonia

Tracking Map:
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1913.gif

Further info follows:

HURRICANE WARNING 018 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 11/0743 UTC 2013 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA 17F CENTRE 935HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.6 SOUTH 161.7 EAST AT 110600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.6S 161.7E at 110600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
120600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
             OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.8S 162.3E AT 111800 UTC
              AND NEAR 20.2S 162.7E AT 120600 UTC


ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

From usno.navy.mil

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A 15NM PARTIALLY
CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE DECREASING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102
TO 115 KNOTS AND THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SEEN IN THE STORM
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE. TC 19P HAS
CONTINUED ITS SLOW SOUTHEAST MOTION AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING
INFLUENCES FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WEAKENING
AS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GFS REMAINING THE WESTERN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//

[gabba]

TC Sandra now category 3, moves south at 7 knots and continues to weaken

Track map:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1913.gif

Further details:

From Fiji Metorological Service

HURRICANE WARNING 021 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/0053 UTC 2013 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9
SOUTH 161.9 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.9S 161.9E at 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
130000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
             OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT
AND
                           WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.2S 162.1E AT 121200 UTC
              AND NEAR 22.8S 162.3E AT 130000 UTC


ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

from usno.navy.mil

120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AND ITS EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED
AS CONVECTIVE BANDS LOOSENED AND DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE HAS SPED UP AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC SANDRA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ASVERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND ALONG-TRACK SSTS BECOME COOLER.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 28 FEET.

[gabba]

TC Sandra has weakened significantly over the last 24 hours, and is now a Category 1 storm. Sandra continues to move south


Track Map (attached):
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

Code: [Select]

GALE WARNING 026  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/0652 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA 17F CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6 SOUTH 161.8 EAST AT 130600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 24.6S 161.8E at 130600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 140600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
NORTHEAST QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.9S 161.6E AT 131800 UTC
              AND NEAR 29.3S 161.1E AT 140600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 025

PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA
WILL REST WITH WELLINGTON.

...and the news you have been waiting for (from MetService)

Issued: 2:06pm Wednesday 13 Mar 2013
Valid from Friday 15 March 2013 to Monday 18 March 2013

           
A slow moving front is expected to affect Fiordland on Friday and there is a low risk that rain could then reach warning amounts there, especially in the south.

A low, currently TC Sandra is expected to move eastsoutheast over the Tasman Sea towards the South Island on Sunday. This low is likely to bring rain to much of the South Island and parts of the North Island, particularly the north and west. There is still uncertainty regarding amounts and distribution of the rain, however the risk of heavy rain on Sunday is considered moderate for the Marlborough Sounds, Nelson, Buller, Westland and the far north of Fiordland.

Late on Sunday the low is expected to intensify as it interacts with a trough moving northeast over the South Island. There is a low risk of severe gales about the Marlborough Sounds and Wellington late on Sunday and early Monday.

[gabba]

TC Sandra Continues to weaken as it moves into the colder waters of the Tasman Sea. Currently travelling at 18 knots S

Tracking map: (unavailable)

Metservice:

STORM WARNING 263
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone SANDRA [978hPa] centre was located near 30.7 South 161.3 East at 140600 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 30.7S 161.3E at 140600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 18 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre easing to 50 knots by 141800 UTC and then easing to 40 knots by 150600 UTC with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell easing.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 220 nautical miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 31.6S 161.3E at 141800 UTC
and near 32.6S 161.5E at 150600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 262.

[gabba]

Tropical Cyclone Sandra is now a tropical low, moving towards the country. From the MetService

A low, formerly tropical cyclone Sandra, is expected to move southeast towards New Zealand during the weekend, spreading a strong, moist northerly flow over the country.

Rain is expected to affect much of the country, with the heaviest falls likely in Westland, where a Warning is in force.