Cyclone Freda

[gabba]

Been watching this for a day or so:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/8124640/High-chance-of-cyclone-forming

Weather forecasters say there is a high chance of a tropical depression turning into a cyclone later today and hammering the Solomon Islands before moving into the Tasman Sea.

The Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji forecasts it will be named Freda later today and within 72 hours will become a category two cyclone with winds up to 116 kmh.

The depression is around 400 kilometres north east of the Solomon's capital of Honiara and its tracking south west to pass south of Guadalcanal.

Most of the major islands of the archipelago are under warning watch.

"Heavy rain at times and squally thunderstorms over most provinces and islands," the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service advises.

"People should take precautionary measures as bad weather associated with the tropical depression poses threats to lives and properties."

The storm comes two weeks after Cyclone Evans came into live 2000 kilometres to the east and wreaked widespread damage to Samoa, Wallis and Futuna and Fiji.

The new weather system was 2700km nor-northeast of Auckland, which was the area that nurtured cyclones that have in the past reached New Zealand.

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[gabba]

From Fiji Meteorological Service:

Uncertainty track map here:

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

STORM WARNING 067  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 28/1909 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8
SOUTH 160.3 EAST AT 281800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 160.3E at 281800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 291200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.6S 159.8E AT 290600 UTC
              AND NEAR 13.3S 159.6E AT 291800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 066.

[gabba]

Forecast to be category 3 over sea, then track SSW past New Caledonia

Forecast Track map:
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html


GALE WARNING 077 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 30/0704 UTC 2012 UTC.

IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 17S 168W 17S 162W 22S 162W 22S 168W 17S 168W, EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS ONLY. VERY ROUGH SEAS.

AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING.

THIS CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 075.

[bett]

Norfolk island weekend forecast - Rain. Chance thunderstorm. Windy 5 metre swell and 30-47 knot winds
Looks the cyclone will be in our area this weekend
We will keep a close eye on forecast and plan ahead

[JennyLeez]

7:30 AM Monday Dec 31, 2012

Tropical Cyclone Freda has struck the Solomon Islands.
She has brought heavy rains and winds of up to 130km/h.
Roofs have been ripped off houses and trees have been flattened, while rising rivers caused flooding in some areas.
There are no reports of deaths or injuries.
Cyclone trackers at the Nadi weather office say the category two cyclone is moving away and continuing to intensify.
However, Freda is no longer expected to hit Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the coming days.
NZ Herald

[bett]

http://www.meteo.gov.vu/metfiles/charts/30121218Z.PNG

Norfolk Island is half way between Vanuatu and New Zealand.  we are the yellow dot Latatude  29`south

[gabba]

Tropical Cyclone Freda Now upgraded to intensity 4 as it heads SSW. Expected to decrease in strength over the next 24 hours and then alter course to head towards New Caledonia. There is still alot of uncertainty in it's track

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

Advisory Number 4 on Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda issued by the Vanuatu
Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at
12:03pm VUT Monday 31 December 2012.

At 11:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (941 hPa) was located at
16.4S 161.3E. The Severe Tropical Cyclone is positioned at square letter
A, number A (A,6) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map. 
That is about 600 KM west southwest of Santo. The system is moving
south at 9 KM/HR. Winds at the centre of the system
estimated at 165KM/HR, gusting to 235KM/HR. System expected to weaken
in the next 24 hours. 

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                     Position                 Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 31 Dec)           17.0S, 161.3E            90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 31 Dec)          17.6S, 161.2E            80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 1 Jan)            18.1S, 161.2E            80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 1 Jan)           18.7S, 161.3E            80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 1 Jan)           19.9S, 161.7E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 2 Jan)           20.9S, 162.5E            60 KTS (110 KM/HR)

Based on the forecast track, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda may not directly
affect any parts of Vanuatu. However, there is low confidence in
the forecast track, and as such the central and southern islands of
Vanuatu may receive strong to gale force winds of 60 to 90 KM/HR within the
next 36 to 48 hours should the system move closer to New Caledonia. Heavy
rainfall is expected throughout Vanuatu. Flooding is also possible over
low lying areas and areas close to river banks.   

[gabba]

TC Freda weakens (now Category 1) as it continues to move slowly SE down the coast of New Caledonia. Expected to be downgraded to a subtropical low within the next 24 hours

Track map attached:
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html