Models give 50% chance of El Nino developing soon

[Rwood]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

If this happens, the east of the South Island (most notably Canterbury) should get out of the pattern of cooler than average months that has been around for a while.

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[Weather Display]

certainly warmer than normal water in the eastern pacific
also this constant SW wind and anticylonic gloom here is very typical for el nino