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 Frosty winter on cards
PAUL GORMAN
Frosty nights could make a comeback this winter, with the latest prediction suggesting "average" weather in Canterbury over the next three months.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research's (Niwa) seasonal climate outlook through to July says computer models are in agreement that La Nina is now over and that neutral, or average, atmospheric conditions should prevail during the first half of the winter.

That means Canterbury can expect an equal chance of any of its usual weather, including mild nor'westers, cold snaps and possible low snow, and sunny days with morning frosts.

Even in an average season, extreme events can still occur.

Last winter as a whole turned out to be mild, with few frosty spells, despite the two heaviest snowfalls in Christchurch for about 20 years.

Beyond July, about half the computer models predict neutral weather to remain, and the others opt for the start of an El Nino, which brings drier weather and more west and southwest winds to Canterbury.

Niwa senior climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said even though La Nina had finished, easterly winds were expected to continue to prevail over much of the country during the next few months.

Higher than average air pressures would prevail across the South Island, allowing frosts to form at night.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/6869527/Frosty-winter-on-cards