TC Pam

[gabba]

TC Pam is beginning to establish itself in the Pacific, west of Vanuatu. The models for this have suggested a very large TC developing in the area for several days now, so people are watching this closely.

Here is the latest info from the Fiji met service which monitors the area the TC currently sits in

**** UPDATES ON TC PAM ****

AT 6PM THIS EVENING TD11F INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND IS NOW CALLED "TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM".
IT IS A CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4 S 169.8E OR APPROXIMATELY 1,330 KM NORTHWEST OF NADI.
IT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 4 KNOTS.
ON ITS CURRENT PROJECTED PATH IT IS EXPECT TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FIJI.

THOUGH TC PAM DOES NOT POSE ANT DIRECT THREAT TO FIJI, THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY MAY AFFECT CERTAIN PARTS OF FIJI.

PLEASE STAY TUNED MORE UPDATES.

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[JennyLeez]

From Weather watch so far:

Tropical Cyclone Pam has formed directly north of New Zealand and while it is likely to grow into a severe storm the latest tracking shows it may well go between Vanuatu and Fiji – where it’s mostly open sea.

The storm is also likely to narrowly miss NZ – but the swells and rips are likely to be very dangerous around North Island eastern and northern beaches, even if the weather here is sunny and settled.

[David]

Possibly damaging winds for Hawkes Bay & Gisborne according to latest GFS.

[JennyLeez]

Some early map forecasts as at Wednesday Midnight.
From Weatherzone





From the Metservice





A weak front should cross southern New Zealand on Friday, followed by a ridge of high pressure. The ridge should remain over the South Island until Monday. A southeast flow should develop over the North Island on Saturday and strengthen on Sunday as TC Pam moves out of the tropics and southeastwards.

TC Pam is expected to remain east of New Zealand, but parts of the North Island are likely to be affected by severe weather on Monday, especially Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay, where there is a high confidence of warning amounts of heavy rain and severe southeast gales, possibly starting late Sunday.

For Northland, northern Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula there is a low confidence that rain could become heavy late Sunday and southeast gales could become severe. However, the confidence increases to moderate on Monday, for both warning amounts of heavy rain in these areas and also severe gales. Southeasterlies are expected to turn southwest as the low tracks further south on Monday and there is also a risk of severe southwest gales.

Further south, there is a low confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in central and southern Hawkes Bay and also Wairarapa on Monday.

In addition, strong southeasterlies are likely to affect the remainder of the North Island and there is a moderate confidence that these could become severe about Auckland City, Waikato and Bay of Plenty. Winds may turn southwest later Monday about Auckland, and these southwest gales could also be severe. There is a low confidence of severe southeast gales for the rest of the North Island and the Marlborough Sounds on Monday.

Also of significance, unusually heavy northerly swell is expected to affect exposed coastlines from Cape Reinga to East Cape from later Sunday and during Monday. This swell has the potential to cause coastal damage and dangerous sea conditions.

The Chatham Islands are also likely to be affected by gales, heavy rain and unusually large swell from later Monday.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the track of TC Pam and severe weather watches and warnings will be issued as the situation evolves.

[JennyLeez]

The above still remains in place with an update for Tuesday:

On Tuesday, as the low tracks further south, there is low confidence of heavy rain and severe southerly gales about Wairarapa and Wellington, and also Marlborough and Canterbury.

Also of significance, unusually heavy northerly swell should affect exposed coastlines from Cape Reinga to East Cape from later Sunday and during Monday,and as the low tracks south during Tuesday, heavy southeast swell expected to affect exposed coastlines of Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. This swell has the potential to cause coastal damage and dangerous sea conditions.

Good sum up from weatherwatch.co.nz here:
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/latest-various-maps-cyclone-pam

Updated Maps as below

[gabba]

Latest update from Stuff.co.nz here:
Tropical Cyclone Pam 'bigger than Bola' | Stuff.co.nz

Metservice also have an active bolog tracking this system here:

Tropical Cyclone Pam: latest updates | MetService Blog

It's clear that this is a big system! As to where it goes next we will have to wait and see

[Martin4Jay]

it will be ok for surfing 

[gabba]

Looks like port Vila is taking a direct hit from the eye wall at the moment. Hard to get info on what is happening but central pressure seems to be between 904 and 900 mb.

With Winds around 240 kph at its centre, it looks as if the cyclone has drifted slightly further west than expected, which would bring it on a path closer to Nz early next week.

Port Vila radio has gone off the air and power and water is out across much of Vila. There are early reports of people being killed in remote northern areas.

Will post again if I find more useful info tonight, but otherwise await the damage reports tomorrow

[Martin4Jay]

Sending my thoughts out to you all, wishing you safety 

[gabba]

Damage reports starting to come through as the morning arrives. Overnight Port Vila missed the eye of the storm as it went slightly east. , however the TC has gained more energy and now has an estimated centre pressure of around 889mb. Unconfirmed reports of 45 people dead.

Following is an extract from an article on stuff.co.nz. More here:

Cyclone Pam hits Vanuatu: Dozens feared dead | Stuff.co.nz

Cyclone Pam has made a direct hit on Vanatu as a massive Category 5 storm in what will surely be one of the worst disasters in the archipelago's history.

"The immediate concern is for a very high death toll but also an enormous amount of destruction and devastation," Sune Gudnitz, head of the Pacific office at UNOCHA, the UN's emergency relief arm, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation from nearby Fiji, which is also bracing for the impact of Pam.

The capital of Port Vila may have been spared the absolute worst-case scenario, the Weather Channel reported, but the islands of Erromango, Tanna, and Aneityum were in line for a direct hit.

[gabba]

Imagery from NASA. Taken approx 0000 14 March 2015

[JennyLeez]

A Summary here from the Fijitimes:

"It's a thundery noise coming through and obviously things are starting to fly around. We can feel things hitting us at different times," she said.

"Very few structures I think will be able to withstand a category five cyclone of the magnitude that we are seeing.

More:
http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=298077

Vanuatu in lockdown for Cyclone Pam

Vanuatu bracing itself for a direct hit Friday night.
Cyclone Pam has passed through the provinces of Torba, Penama and Malampa over the past 12 hours.

Up to 4000 people across Vanuatu have taken refuge in shelters such as concrete churches and schools.

More:
http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=298075

Update from Weatherwatch Saturday Morning 14th March:

'While I cannot confirm the reports from my Vanuatu contacts, and others online this morning, they do mention houses and complexes being destroyed, many roofs gone. '

As Pam moves past eastern New Caledonia later today and tonight her overall movement will speed up - which is better news for New Zealand as it means the low is less likely to linger - the longer it stays the higher the damage.

Full Summary here.
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/philip-duncan-what-happens-next-with-cyclone-pam-after-vanuatu-4-maps

[JennyLeez]

Solomon Islands is taking stock of the aftermath of Cyclone Pam with reports of serious damages in the country's eastern province.

Trees and crops have been flattened, with residents sheltering in school buildings and caves as the Category 5 storm destroyed their homes.

Solomon Islands National Disaster Management Office Deputy Director Jonathan Tafiariki said Tikopia Island was one of the worst affected.

"We have been informed that now the island is more like a desert again, since they have experienced strong winds since yesterday," he said.

"So that means we have all the food gardens and most of the trees have been blown down."

Mr Tafiariki said other islands have reported extensive destruction and damage to houses but so far there had been no loss of life.

He said initial relief efforts from the disaster management office would focus on food, water and medical supplies but ongoing severe weather conditions were delaying the response.
'Some people have been injured'

Another spokesperson, Brian Tom, told Checkpoint that more than 3000 households had been affected, with some houses damaged or destroyed - and reports of injuries.

"Some people have been injured from the fallen trees [and] houses that were destroyed by the strong winds of the tropical cyclone."

Mr Tom said Tikopia and Anuta bore the full force of the storm.

He said the people of Tikopia had lost 90 percent of their food crops and fruit trees, and their water was contaminated, but the weather was still too rough to launch a boat with emergency supplies.

He said all phone lines to Anuta were down and they had no information about how the island has fared.

[JennyLeez]

Pam's path down and around New Zealand is still fairly unpredictable.
Below are 2 sets of Maps from weatherzone.

First set of path forecasts:




Second set of path forecasts:




and from the Metservice:

[itaranak18]

Looking at that Jenny you had better batten down the hatches !!

[JennyLeez]

Link to live Wind Map for tracking here:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-182.18,-23.34,1207

Link to NZ Herald live Blog here:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11417234

[JennyLeez]

Now NZ plays the waiting game...

The next 24 hours will be free from frequent updates as Pam starts to move away from the islands and truly out into the open waters between us and the tropics where there are few weather stations.

So we'll just be watching it spin - and watching the various models frequently continue to place it closer to NZ one update, further east to the next. She will drop from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3. Hopefully she will drop further to a Cat 2. But even if she does we can still expect winds greater than 100km/hr

The last forecast track map was issued by RSMC Nadi. The map shows Pam taking a southeast track to lie to the northeast of New Zealand on Sunday as predicted.

This one is not going to fizzle out. Cyclone Pam is going to continue down. We can only hope the jetstream pulls her further east on her journey and the damage to New Zealand is minimal.

Needless to say as she becomes closer tomorrow the forecasters will all have more idea.

My backyard is now all packed into our sheds. We are ready but many around here are not taking the warnings serious enough. I guess this is what happens when so many storms are forecast and never happen

I have managed to get all the Upper East Coast weather Stations online from Gisborne down to Mohaka. I have added another Gisborne Weather Station in the last few days. We now have one North East and the new one is close to the Airport, West.
I am hoping our Northern Hawkes Bay Community Stations can remain in the air

http://nzpws.net/

Jenny.

Footnote: I note Gisborne and Gisborne West Windrun for today is 13km and 24km respectively; the calm before the storm huh.

[PaulMy]

For those of us inland and more than a 1000 km from any ocean it is hard to visualize and feel the anxiety of such huge storms.  I have been following the comments on this and trust it avoids any direct hit on developed areas. 

Everyone, keep safe!

Paul

[iomkiwi]

Went for a drive further north to see the swells as I won't be able to tomorrow, took a few readings with my Vavuud wind meter, got some readings on a ridge of 58kmh average and 96.1 kmh maximum.
Those with Android phone can download the vavuud app to see my readings (they are the only ones north of the Bay of Islands)

[iisfaq]

I could not visualize what it is like to live 1000km from the water.

From where I live I Christchurch, the distance to Auckland is about 1000KM and a lot of water to the east and west - not many KM from it.

It does look like the path is closer to NZ than the met service had on their video report earlier today.

Chris
Christchurch Weather Live