Weekend Forecast 28th - 29th July 2012

[Te Puke Weather]

Issued by The MetService

Saturday
North Island, mainly fine, but a few showers in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. South Island, rain or showers along the West Coast, mostly fine elsewhere.

Sunday
North Island, rain developing north of a line Taranaki to East Cape, with some heavy falls. Cloud increasing in the south and east later. South Island, rain or showers in the west, and rain developing in the north and far south later in the day. Increasing cloud elsewhere.

Chatham Islands
Mostly fine on Sunday with northerlies. On Monday, cloud increasing and northeasterly freshening. Tuesday brings cloudy periods and fresh easterlies.

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[TokWW]

For Sth Waikato and the Volcanic Plateau

Friday
 Sunny. Patchy light fog in the morning. High 13°. UV index up to 2. Wind east-southeast around 5 kph.

Friday night
 Mostly clear, with areas of light frost likely. Low -1°. Wind east around 5 kph.

Saturday
 Sunny. High 13°. UV index up to 2. Wind east-northeast around 10 kph, gusting to 27 kph.

Saturday night
 Mostly clear in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 3°. Wind east-northeast around 11 kph.

Sunday
 Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High 12°. Wind east-northeast around 19 kph, gusting to 36 kph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation mostly between 2 and 5 mm.

Sunday night
 Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. Light to moderate fog after midnight. Rain very likely. Scattered thundershowers possible. Low 9°. Wind northeast around 18 kph, gusting to 28 kph, in the evening, becoming 9 kph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation mostly around 30 mm.

 Monday
 Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A chance of rain. Scattered thundershowers possible. High 14°. Wind northeast around 5 kph in the morning, becoming west-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation mostly between 2 and 5 mm.


Published by WxSim Software, Tokoroa on InmanAvenue.com

[JennyLeez]

East coast - Mahia, Wairoa, Nuhaka, Tuai, Raupunga and Tutira.

Saturday and Sunday looking better for the weekend after a dull, damp, bleak, miserable, wet week.

Saturday
Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 15C. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 10 to 20 km/h.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 6C. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 25 km/h.

Sunday
Overcast. High of 17C. Windy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 35 km/h.

Sunday Night
Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 10C. Windy. Winds from the NE at 30 to 40 km/h. Chance of rain 20% with rainfall amounts near 1.5 mm possible.

[JennyLeez]

From the Metservice.
A broad trough over the Tasman Sea is expected to approach New Zealand late Saturday. An associated front should move onto northern New Zealand during Sunday and Monday, preceded by a strong, moist northeast flow and band of rain. Some heavy falls are likely about Northland, northern Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne during this time. However, given the relatively short duration of any heavy falls, there is only low confidence of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria, as indicated on the chart.
Meanwhile, another front should move onto southern New Zealand during Sunday and spread over much of the South Island on Monday as a deep low approaches central New Zealand. Brief heavy rain is likely about Fiordland on Sunday, with a low confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning levels. Rain should then spread over much of the South Island and lower North Island during Monday and Tuesday. Heavy rainfalls are likely in southern and eastern parts of the South Island, especially about eastern parts of Southland and Otago, where there is moderate confidence of amounts reaching warning criteria. Heavy snowfalls are also possible to low levels in Southland and Otago during Monday and Tuesday and could also reach warning criteria in Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast on Tuesday.
Finally, a strong south to southeast flow is expected to develop over southern New Zealand during Monday and persist through Tuesday, with a low risk of winds reaching severe gale in exposed places.

[Derek]

Waitakere

Here's this morning's result from running WXSIM

Saturday
Sunny in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 14°. Wind east around 23 kph, gusting to 38 kph.
Saturday night
Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight. A slight chance of rain. Low 10°, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind east-northeast around 24 kph, gusting to 37 kph, in the evening, becoming 29 kph, gusting to 44 kph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less than 2 mm.
Sunday
Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Scattered thundershowers possible. High 15°. Wind northeast around 34 kph, gusting to 49 kph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation mostly between 10 and 20 mm.
Sunday night
Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog. A chance of rain in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Scattered thundershowers possible. Low 11°. Wind north-northeast around 19 kph, gusting to 43 kph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation mostly between 2 and 5 mm

For a wider view, I've had a look at Ogimet charts.  On Monday (beginning of this week), I'd picked that today was likely to be the best day of the week and looks like it may indeed be just that - fine and sunny in most places with little wind, though some cloud perhaps lower down in the south island.
Saturday's not too bad a day either, but as the high pressure moves off to the east, a low pressure system develops and is going to deepen on the other side of us, bringing rain again with a relatively strong northeasterly flow beginning to affect the north and west coast regions of both islands from Sunday.
What could be considered as bad news is that the high to the east looks like it is going to block the movement of the low, meaning that we'll probably get significant rain from it through next week.
Charts attached are for midday Saturday & Sunday.
Bottom line? enjoy today, tomorrow and however much of sunday stays fine where you are, as rain is on the menu for a fair while next week.

[JennyLeez]

Northeasterly breezes will pick up for the top half of the North Island tomorrow with some scattered cloud, cloud will thicken up around Northland with a few light showers possible in the east from afternoon. Mostly sunny over the rest of the Island with north to northeasterly breezes, light morning frosts in inland areas first thing.
Mostly cloudy along the South Island’s West Coast with northeasterly breezes, a few drizzle patches or showers at times south of Hokitika. Mostly sunny in Nelson and down along the east coast with north to northeasterly breezes again, some high cloud in Southland, Otago and parts of Canterbury.
If it’s feeling a little cool along the east coast in the South Island take a drive inland if your looking for something to do and it might be a little warmer with northwesterly winds more likely, a visit to the Sheffield pie shop sounds like a good day out followed by a walk up behind Oxford starting out in Coopers Creek. Ryde falls is a nice walk but around 2 hours there and 2 hours back again so you might not want to go to far if taking the kids or if you’ve had to many pies.
The low forming in the Tasman Sea will deepen over the weekend and start affecting many areas from Sunday in the North Island then early next week in the South Island. It looks like it will hang out west of the country all week due to a blocking high out east of New Zealand, prepare for a wet week particularly in the east.

[OhauitiWeather]

Look for a settled day for almost all of New Zealand today.  There is a very small chance for some light showers around Gisborne and Northland today, but it’s most likely to stay dry.  Just like the rest of the country.

Tomorrow, look for more of the same.  Settled weather is expected across the country.

All of this calm and dry weather is thanks to a ridge of high pressure.  This ridge is not going to hang around much longer.  In fact, by Sunday it should be far enough away to open the door for another Tasmanian low.

But this time, unlike the low from earlier this week, this low is likely to be deeper and more aggressive.  In addition, it could affect more of the South Island this time.

Rain is likely to begin to affect parts of both islands starting on Sunday.  On the North Island, Northland, the Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty could see heavy rain.  East Cape/Gisborne could also see heavy rain, but probably not until Monday.

Most of the South Island, with the exception of Fiordland should dodge the heavy rain on Sunday.  However, on Monday and Tuesday, heavy rain and heavy snow are possible for all but the western and northern regions of the South Island.

The track of the low is still not set yet, so this forecast will likely need to be fine-tuned as we go through the next few days.  However, it’s pretty clear that this has the potential to be a significant storm for parts of New Zealand as we wrap up the weekend and head into next week.


-WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/potent-low-still-track-early-next-week

[JennyLeez]

In brief:
Heavy rain is on its way to Northland, Auckland and Bay of Plenty.
MetService forecaster Philippa Murdoch said a low is forming over the Tasman Sea which is spreading a fairly active front over the North.
"With that we are expecting Northland, Auckland and the Bay of Plenty to get some heavy rain and there could be thunder storms with that as well."
The wet weather would mean a slight drop in temperatures with Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions expected to hit a 14 deg C.

In Full:
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND NORTHEAST GALES FOR NORTHERN NEW ZEALAND ON
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. ALSO SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE FOR
NORTHWEST NELSON, FIORDLAND AND SOUTHLAND.
A large, intense low is forecast to develop over the Tasman Sea on
Sunday and slowly move towards New Zealand next week, bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather to much of the country.
Northern New Zealand will see the first effects of this system, as an
associated front crosses the area during Sunday and early Monday. A
period of heavy rain and northeast gales can be expected during this
time. This Watch is for the possibility of rainfall amounts reaching
warning criteria about the eastern hills of Northland, also
Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty and eastern Waikato near
the Kaimai Range. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be as large
as in the previous event last week. However, given the saturated
conditions, this rainfall could still cause issues such as slips or
surface flooding and are likely to increase river levels. There is
also a slight risk of the northeast winds reaching severe gale for a
time in exposed parts of Northland and Auckland on Sunday.
A period of heavy rain is also likely about northwest Nelson,
Fiordland and parts of Southland later on Sunday and Monday. This
Watch also covers the possibility of rainfalls in these areas
reaching warning criteria.
MetService forecasters will continue to monitor the situation and
advise people in all these areas to remain up to date with the latest
forecasts in case this watch is upgraded to a full warning.
Thanks Metservice