Author Topic: This Week's Weather Forecasting 23rd - 27th April 2012  (Read 3994 times)

Offline JennyLeez

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This Week's Weather Forecasting 23rd - 27th April 2012
« on: April 19, 2012, 03:55:54 PM »
Dry weather to linger for at least a week.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say the big high, which continues to spread over New Zealand, will last until at least Anzac Day - and possibly longer for some in the north east of the country.
While a few showers may linger around Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay for Thursday, they are expected to also clear.
Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the anticyclone is doing what all the highs in summer failed to do - linger for more than a couple days.  "Back in summer most nationwide highs lasted just a couple of days, bringing cloud, wind and changeable conditions.  Most of the highs that lingered for longer were only over the lower South Island".
Mr Duncan says the current high is centred near the South Island and over the next seven days is likely to drift north east, to be anchored over central New Zealand and then the North Island.  "Generally speaking this means cool nights, some foggy mornings and then mostly sunny, mild, afternoons".
WeatherWatch.co.nz says the right ingredients are there for making fog and morning clouds as well, with warm days, cool nights and mild sea temperatures.
"It's likely that some coastal areas will have a couple cloudy days too, especially in the north and west with winds not strong enough to blow the clouds away".
However WeatherWatch.co.nz says the general theme for the next week will be calm, dry, weather.
The next rain band is currently being predicted for the day after Anzac Day and computer guidance suggests it will be mainly for the south western section of the South Island, but could bring in a more westerly flow to the nation as we head into the weekend after next.  This wind flow may well see the dry, sunny, weather lingering in northern and/or eastern areas until May.  Confidence is currently moderate of this happening says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

weatherwatch.co.nz
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 12:25:26 AM by JennyLeez »


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Website: wairoa.net/weather

Offline JennyLeez

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ANZAC Day forecast 25th April 2012
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2012, 02:13:14 PM »
ANZAC day is looking to be yet another dry and settled day across most of the country.

The ridge of high pressure that has been keeping things quiet here will continue to do so right through Wednesday.

However, as it continues to move off, a weak disturbance is expected to form north of New Zealand.  This disturbance may provide just enough lift and just enough of a wind shift to produce showers about Northland and the Coromandel Peninsula in the morning and about Bay of Plenty in the afternoon and evening.

These are very small precipitation chances though.  I certainly would not go cancelling any outdoor plans at this time.  But, we will keep an eye on it for you and keep you updated.

The rest of the country can expect a mainly sunny day with a few clouds mixed in from time to time.

Highs will in the mid to the upper teens.

Weatherwatch



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« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 02:18:49 PM by JennyLeez »

Offline TokWW

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Re: This Week's Weather Forecasting 23rd - 27th April 2012
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2012, 11:39:11 AM »
This week's weather is again fairly easy to anticipate and Weather-Watch Head Forecaster, Philip Duncan, is probably pretty accurate with his forecast.

To reiterate - the High is slow moving and even stationary reaching over the North Island but centred well to the east of the North Island, however the Tasman Sea is becoming complex with new Lows forming in the mixed valley between the passing on High to the East and one large one covering the whole of Australia again.  These Lows are cojoined with a band of rain from the subtropical Queensland Coast, diagonal down through Stewart Island and south of the Chathams. 
 
On Wednesday, there is still a steady Nor-East airstream onto the top half of the North Island bringing some cloud over the next few days especially in the cool morning air and at night.  The South Island will have Northerlies on the West Coast strong south of Haast.  Cloud and some rain will develope south of there with Nor westers and in Southland with westerlies.  The rest of NZ will be mainly fine, cool in the mornings, mild northerlies to nor-westers through the days.  The SI East Coast may have dry Sou-Westers off the ranges, and warm temps.

Thursday will see the High moving further away and the NI winds tend more northerly with stronger Nor-Westers through Cook Strait. These winds will be more westerly onto the SI West Coast.  Only occasional showers will affect that coast, depending on timing of cold fronts if any precede the Low now forming close to Fiordland with another sister Low, north in centre of the Tasman level with Northland.  A heavy band of rain is still to the west of both islands due to hit on Friday.

On Friday this heavy band of showers in a cold front hitting the NI, will have strong North- North-west winds turning Westerly as it passes, strong in Cook Strait.  Westerlies will prevail over the SI West Coast with a more Sou-West continuing direction inland to the East of the main divide and over the Canterbury Plains.  Rain will ease in the North Island by nightfall.  However, further cold fronts may whistle over.

Saturday will see strong West to Sou-West winds over the whole country with further spells of cloud and damp weather over most of NZ.  The winds will turn more southerly over the South Island and temperatures will drop.  The winds again will be strong to gale force in Cook strait, possibly turning more Nor-Westerly through there.

Sunday will have a similar forecast again but the winds will be stronger to Storm Force along the Fiordland and Southland Coasts.  Heavy bands of rain will pass in cold fronts up over the South Island during the day with some passing over the North Island too, with more Westerly winds, gale force around Taranaki.  Northland may get an evening cold front passing over with rain.  The West Coast will receive very heavy rainfall amounts south of Westport.

Monday will see clearing weather in the North Island with Sou-Westers and still showers over much of the South Island with cold, strong southerly winds.

NZ Forecasts gleaned from MetVUW 5 Day forecasts here:

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=nz&noofdays=5

Also from www.weatheronline.co.nz  and http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/aus.fcst.html

« Last Edit: April 24, 2012, 11:43:33 AM by TokWW »


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