This Week's Weather Forecasting 23rd to 27th July 2012

[JennyLeez]

A wet couple of days for much of the North Island is in progress with the East Coast not clearing until Thursday going off the forecasting Charts.

Issued by MetService

Sunday/Monday
Northland, Auckland and Coromandel
Rain with some heavy falls. Thunderstorms for eastern parts of Northland tonight, Rain turning to showers tomorrow, some heavy.

Waikato to Wanganui, also the central high country and Bay of Plenty
Rain spreading south today with heavy falls especially in the east.

Hawkes Bay and Gisborne
Cloudy. A few showers in the north. Rain developing tonight, with some heavy falls tomorrow.

Manawatu to Wellington and Wairarapa
Cloud thickening today. Occasional rain tomorrow, with possible heavy falls, easing in the afternoon.

For Marlborough, Nelson and Buller
Cloud thickening today. Occasional rain spreading southwards from tonight.

Canterbury
Cloudy areas. Patchy drizzle north of Christchurch tonight, clearing tomorrow.

Otago and Southland
Fine breaks increasing today. Early frosts tomorrow.

Westland
High cloud increasing.

Fiordland
Skies clearing this afternoon.

Chatham Islands
Patchy drizzle, clearing tomorrow and becoming fine.

Tuesday
North Island, Rain most places, easing to a few showers in the north during the morning. South Island, rain north of Hokitika and spreading down through Canterbury. Fine in the remainder of the west, becoming cloudy elsewhere.

Wednesday
North Island, Showers or rain again for all, clearing in the central west later in the day. South Island, Drizzle or showers in the east and south, with snow about the hills later. Mainly fine elsewhere.

Thursday
North Island, Remaining showers clearing and becoming fine most places. South Island, Drizzle in the east and a few showers intensifying he north, becoming fine else where.

Friday
Fine or becoming fine for most of the country, showers developing in Fiordland.

Chatham Islands
Becoming cloudy on Tuesday, and late rain developing. Northerlies changing strong southeast on Wednesday, with some heavy rain. Southeasterlies and rain easing on Thursday. A few showers and southeast breezes on Friday.

from Weather Watch
Rain is expected to spread across most of the rest of the North Island by tonight.
Tomorrow, the threat for heavy rain will move away from Auckland shift more toward the Bay of Plenty and East Cape/Gisborne.  The threat for heavy rain will exist all day, with the greatest threat being during the daylight hours.  Eastern Waikato and the central Plateau could also see some heavier rain, but the amounts don't look to be as much and threat is not as high.
The South Island will likely remain pretty much untouched by this low.  The extreme uppper regions of the SI could see some showers today and tomorrow, but it should all be pretty light.  Some more widespread rain is possible on Tuesday, but only the for the northeastern regions and even then, chances are pretty small.

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[OhauitiWeather]

As precipitation continues to spread across the North Island today, the threat for heavy rain about parts of the NI continues to grow.

Here's the latest:

Models continue to indicate the possibility of a period of heavy rain tonight for southern sections of Auckland as well as all of the Coromandel Peninsula. Taranaki and Waikato could also see some heavier stuff tonight.

At issue for these areas is the fact that the “heavy rain” doesn't look like it will be that heavy in terms of total rainfall. However, quick bursts of heavy rain could lead to some surface flooding and minor river flooding. The chances of that happening are about 50/50.

Tomorrow, the heavy rain threat shifts east and south...and increases.

During the morning hours, heavy rain is expected to affect parts of the Bay of Plenty, East Cape/Gisborne and possiby the southern Coromandel Peninsula. The threat for heavy rain will then continue into the afternoon and evening.

Government forecaster MetService has now posted Heavy Rain Warnings for the Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Whakatane. They estimate that by late tomorrow night, 120mm to 160mm of rain could fall. They feel the heaviest falls across this area will be between 6pm today and midday tomorrow and rates could reach 20mm/hr.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters believe that the heaviest rain should arrive a bit later than that for Bay of Plenty We believe it will start either during the overnight hours or early tomorrow morning. WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters also believe that there is a higher threat for heavy rain for East Cape/Gisborne than there is for the Coromandel Peninsula. However, as mentioned earlier, heavy rain for the Coromandel Peninsula can't be ruled out with the best chance being tonight.


By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/heavy-rain-outlook

[JennyLeez]

Update from Metservice:
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WAIKATO, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, HAWKES BAY
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1034hrs 23-Jul-2012

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN PARTS OF WAIKATO AND BAY OF PLENTY, AND FOR
HAWKES BAY

Watch updated at 10:30am to restrict heavy rain in Waikato to eastern
areas.

A front is moving slowly southwards over northern New Zealand today
and Tuesday.  A strong northeast airstream ahead of this front is
expected to bring a period of rain to much of the North Island.  The
heaviest falls are expected about the Coromandel Peninsula, western
Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, and a warning has been issued for these
areas.

Heavy rain is also expected to affect eastern Bay of Plenty and
eastern parts of Waikato near the Kaimai Range today, and Hawkes Bay
through to Tuesday.  In these areas, rainfall amounts may approach
warning criteria and a Watch will be maintained.

Slips and surface floodings are possible, and rivers and streams may
rise rapidly.  People in these areas are advised to keep up to date
with the latest forecasts in case further warnings become necessary.
Note, heavy rain in Auckland has now eased and the Watch there is
lifted.

[OhauitiWeather]

nzherald.co.nz and Philip Duncan bring you the latest on the large sub-tropical low that's pulling tropical air down over the upper North Island.  We also take a look at the rest of New Zealand and what lies ahead for the week and upcoming weekend.

Link to Video:


- WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-warm-and-wet-north-island

[OhauitiWeather]

This week will be dominated be an east to southeasterly airflow between a departing low that is currently moving over Northland and an incoming anticyclone to the south of the country. Generally speaking eastern areas of both Islands will get cloudy wet weather for the week and the better weather will be out west.



In saying the above Otago and Southland should remain relatively unscathed as the main area this southeasterly will flow is north of these regions, Wednesday looks to be the day where it may be a bit damp in the far south.

Tomorrow is the start of this pattern but it won’t be in full swing yet meaning western areas of the North Island will still experience a few showers during the day, sunny breaks to however. Most of the lower half of the North Island should be wet. Also western places north of Greymouth may also get some wet weather which should clear early Wednesday.

Needless to say from East Cape right down through to Mid Canterbury it is looking damp tomorrow for sure. Heavy rain at times along the east coast of the North Island and possibly about Marlborough and along the Kaikoura Coast. Rain will ease off a little on Wednesday but it will be another wet day north of Mid Canterbury along the east coast of both islands, rain clears north of Mid Canterbury for the South Island on Wednesday evening.

Homepage image / Tuesday 24th July midday rain map, weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/southeasterlies-week

[JennyLeez]

From Weather Watch:
For half of New Zealand (mostly the southern half) the weather has hardly been newsworthy in recent days - and soon the calmer, sunnier and drier weather will spread to all of New Zealand as the threat of severe weather diminishes this week.
WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say the large sub-tropical low that brought slips and flooding to Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty on Monday will cross the upper North Island over the next day or two as it slowly fizzles out.
Behind it is a large high that will see sunnier and drier weather spread across New Zealand. This weather has already moved in to the West Coast on Monday.
Thursday, Friday and Saturday all look mostly settled for the country at this stage, bar a few remaining showers around East Cape, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay on Thursday - which may linger until Friday around Gisborne.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says most places will see conditions improving on Wednesday and Thursday...and for those who have had mostly sunny weather, well, it's likely to continue for a few days yet. The only exception will be Tuesday and Wednesday along the South Island's east coast as some light rain and showers heads south along the coastline.
Rain is expected to turn to snow above 500m around Christchurch on Wednesday - with the city likely to only reach 8 degrees.
Sunnier weather should return to the eastern South Island across Thursday and Friday although clouds caught up in the nor'easter may continue.
And what about that warm weather in the upper North Island? It will continue for Tuesday and then shift closer to normal temperatures later in the week - however temperatures may well remain above average for the rest of July in the Top Half, which is good news for dairy farmers with grass growth expected to lift.

[JennyLeez]

I am getting slightly sick of these icons on my website as my forecast:

Wednesday


Thursday

[OhauitiWeather]

Video -- Heavy rain looms for the North Island says Philip Duncan in today's Herald video as a new Tasman Sea low is predicted to form this weekend then linger for much of next week.

UPDATE: Please note this was recorded Wednesday morning - and the rain maps don't include the areas of  rain and showers currently moving into parts of Auckland, Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula.  This will continue for Wednesday afternoon and evening then ease on Thursday morning before heading into Northland and easing there later on.

Link to Video:


= WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-heavy-rain-looms-north-island