There is still uncertainty in regards to the expected track of Cyclone Donna,but at this stage the system is forecast to pass east of the country on Friday. Despite this, severe weather is still possible in many areas as detailed below and on the chart.

A front over the northwest of the South Island should move onto the North Island late Thursday or early Friday, before moving away to the east of the country during Friday. The front is preceded by a strong northerly flow and followed by strong south to southwesterlies.

Rain and strong northerlies spread over the North Island during Thursday before the front moves across the Island on Friday and eventually away to the east. During Thursday and Friday, there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Wanganui, Manawatu and Horowhenua Kapiti Coast, moderate confidence of warnable rain amounts over the upper North Island, while there is high confidence eastern Bay of Plenty will require a warning for heavy rain, especially about the ranges. In addition, there is low confidence northerlies may rise to severe gale in exposed places during Thursday and Friday, before the front moves away to the east.

A strong south to southwest flow follows the front as it moves away to the east on Friday. On Friday, there is low confidence a warning will be required for heavy rain in Wairarapa and Wellington, but moderate confidence in Hawkes Bay and Gisborne. In addition, there is low confidence of south to southwest winds reaching severe gale in the east of the North Island on Friday as indicated on the chart.