An active front is expected to lie over the lower North Island Monday night and should clear the North Island during Tuesday, with a period of rain for most places.

Warnings and Watches are in force for much of the South Island, as well as the south and east of the North Island, for both wind and rain. The Watch for the possibility of severe northwest gales in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay extends into Tuesday morning, as shown by the high confidence area on the chart. There is a moderate confidence of heavy rain about the Tararua Range continuing into early Tuesday, and this area is also included in the Watch.

For the central North Island, a period of heavy rain and northwest gales is likely ahead of the front during Tuesday morning and there is a low confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria from Waitomo and Taranaki across to Taihape and the western hills of Taupo, including Tongariro National Park. In the same area, there is a low confidence of a period of severe northwest gales on Tuesday morning.

Behind the front, a cold west to southwest flow should become established over the country, bringing snow showers below 500 metres to the far southwest of the South Island, and possibly also the Catlins, with significant snow accumulations likely above 500 metres during Tuesday.

A ridge is expected to move onto the North Island on Wednesday and may persist over northern New Zealand through to the end of the week, while northwesterlies strengthen over the South Island and about Cook Strait, ahead of another front. Rain is expected to become persistent in Westland and Fiordland on Wednesday, with a moderate confidence of warning amounts of heavy rain from later Wednesday through to Friday. The heaviest falls are likely to be on Thursday and Friday, with spillover to the headwaters of the lakes and rivers of Canterbury and Otago possible.