Preliminary forecast for Queens Birthday Week. A westerly flow covers the country on Friday and a period of rain is expected about western parts of the South Island, with moderate confidence that rainfall accumulations could approach warning amounts about Fiordland.
The flow tends more northwesterly and strengthens on Saturday ahead of an approaching front, which is expected to reach the South Island late Saturday then move north over the country during Sunday and Monday, followed by a change to cooler southwesterlies. Rain returns to the West Coast on Saturday, then spreads north to western parts of the lower North Island on Sunday.
There is moderate confidence that rainfall accumulations could approach warning amounts about Fiordland and Westland during Saturday and Sunday, while there is a low risk for Buller and northwest Nelson on Sunday, and also for Westland on Monday. During late Sunday and Monday, there is low confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria about the Tararua Range and Mt Taranaki.
In addition, northwesterlies are expected to become strong and gusty ahead of the front about eastern parts of the South Island, and the lower North Island from late Saturday. There is moderate risk that northwesterly gusts could exceed 110km/h about Wellington and the Wairarapa during Sunday and early Monday.
From The Metservice