2012 - 13 South West Pacific Cyclone Season Forecast

[Mark]

More than average expected.
2012/13 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook in the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre Area of Responsibility
Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity in the 2012/13 TC Season within the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AOR) (Equator to 25 ̊South between 160 ̊East and 120 ̊West), is anticipated to be average to slightly above average with moderate to low confidence. The official 2012/13 TC Season begins on the 1st of November 2012, and ends on April 30th, 2013.
7 to 10 TCs are expected to occur in the RSMC Nadi AOR during the 2012/13 season. On average, for all the 43 seasons from 1969/70 to 2011/12, 7.4 cyclones usually occur, 6.6 during La Niña and neutral seasons, and 8.7 in El Niño seasons. An analogue of twelve (12) seasons with similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions was used for this outlook (Table 1).
For the 2012/13 season, the TC genesis trough is expected to be located near the Dateline, supported by the current and expected ENSO characteristics, and the existence of the warm pool of sea surface and sub‐surface temperature anomalies in this region. Thus, for countries to the east of the Dateline, there is a higher chance of the number of cyclones exceeding the average, while average for countries near and west of the Dateline.
Subsequently, average tropical cyclone activity is anticipated for New Caledonia, Southern Tonga, Tokelau, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands, Fiji and Vanuatu, while slightly above average for Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, Northern Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and French Polynesia (Table 2). However, historical TC statistics suggest that tropical cyclones can affect any country, irrespective of the prevailing ENSO phase. Additionally, these records show that TCs have formed outside of the official TC season. Because of these, it is critical that all communities remain alert and prepared throughout the 2012/13 TC season.
Furthermore, there is a potential risk for an increase in severe TCs affecting the region this season, compared to last. There is a high risk for severe tropical cyclones affecting Tokelau, followed by moderate to high risks for New Caledonia, Cook Islands, Solomon Islands and Samoa. Moderate risk is likely for Wallis and Futuna, Tuvalu, Niue and Vanuatu. For Fiji and Tonga, a low to moderate risk of severe tropical cyclone is anticipated (Table 3).
For Fiji, one to two (1-2) TCs could be expected this season, of which one (1) may reach or exceed Category 3 status. With the genesis area near the Dateline, there is a high probability that TCs will approach Fiji from between the northeast and northwest. For those TCs passing close to the country, associated active cloud and rain bands may affect Fiji and cause heavy rain and possible flooding, including sea flooding of low‐lying coastal areas.
It should be noted that non TCs or Tropical Depressions, have caused loss of lives and severe damages to communities in the past. For this reason, it is critical that all communities take heed of warnings and act responsibly, to save lives andproperty.

For the full outlook.. which includes historical data and further predictions visit http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/RSMC_Nadi_2012_13_Tropical_Cyclone_Season_outlook.pdf

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[Suezy]

Thanks for that Mark and didnt know that info was available,

[Mark]

I didnt till i foud it Suezy.