This Week's Weather Forecasting 1st - 5th October

[Te Puke Weather]

Issued by The MetService

Tuesday
North Island, showers spreading to most places, then easing in the west. South Island, showers spreading up the west coast, turning to rain in Fiordland, showers in the east becoming confined to Foveaux Strait.

Wednesday Thursday
North Island, a few showers in the west, mainly fine in the east and south. South Island, rain in the west with some heavy falls, mainly fine in the east but a few showers in the south.

Friday
North Island, rain developing from Taranaki to Wellington, mainly fine elsewhere. South Island, rain with heavy falls in the west, and scattered rain further east, easing to to showers in Westland, Fiordland and Southland later, and clearing in Canterbury and Otago.

Chatham Islands
Unsettled and showery throughout the period. Northwesterlies turning southwest for a time on Tuesday.

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[OhauitiWeather]

A rather wet pattern is setting up for Monday. Rain is likely for much of the western South Island and a large part of the North Island.
 
Expect widespread rain along the western sections of the South Island tomorrow morning. Some precipitation is also possible about coastal Southland. Canterbury and Otago will probably stay dry until the late afternoon or evening hours.
 
On the North Island, showers will have spread across much of the island by sunrise. Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay and Gisborne will likely have to wait until mid-morning to see any rain.
 
Heavy rain is a threat tomorrow, but the best chance for it would be during thunderstorms. Right now, the best chance for thunderstorms will be about West Coast, Nelson and the Kapiti Coast during the afternoon and evening. Government forecaster MetService has identified these areas as having a “high risk” for thunderstorms.
 
Thunderstorms area also possible for eastern Otago and Canterbury, including Christchurch. These areas are running a moderate risk. Also running a moderate risk are Taranaki and Waitomo. All of these regions would most likely see thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
 

By WeatherWatch.co.nz Analyst Howard Joseph
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/october-starts-wet

[OhauitiWeather]

The area of showers that has moved up the South Island today will moves over the North Island overnight and during tomorrow. These showers are likely to be unstable in nature so anywhere from Wellington through to western Waikato could receive thunderstorms overnight and tomorrow morning in the west, tomorrow the focus shifts a little more to the east coast of the North Island where thunderstorms with hail are possible there in the afternoon after a sunny start.



The South Island will be recovering from the onslaught of wet weather later today and will do so in a rather quick fashion. It will become sunny in the morning on the east coast after any early cloud clears. Nelson is looking to be sunny all day with light winds, some cloud on the West Coast with westerly breezes. About Southland expect some cloud with westerlies, the odd shower may develop late afternoon or evening.
 
Temperatures will be a bit on the cool side due to the southwesterly airflow the country will be under but we are now in October so extremely cold temperatures are unlikely. Blustery southwesterlies are more likely to be an issue about western Waikato through to Northland during the day.
 
Homepage image / 2nd October 1pm rain map - weathermap.co.nz
 

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/outlook-tuesday-0

[OhauitiWeather]

A cool and windy blast of weather is heading towards the South Island and lower North Island this coming Friday and weekend say WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters.
 
While this week will have cooler weather for many regions than last week, the colder shot of air arriving around Friday and Saturday appears at this stage to be more potent. "Again, we're not warning of a major wintry blast but certainly a cold snap for the deep south especially" says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.
 
Talking on Country99TV on Monday Mr Duncan said farmers should be aware of it but it does look short lived. "We're heading out of the main risk zone for lambing and this cold snap looks very short lived, but still one that farmers and growers should monitor" he told viewers. "We may also have a few frosts next week if a high comes in behind it. So while not high risk there is still some risk worth monitoring as we slowly ease ourselves out of winter and towards summer".
 
WeatherWatch.co.nz expects parts of Southland and Otago to fail to reach double digits on Saturday and any double digit highs are likely to only reach 10 to 12 degrees.
 
However once you get east of the ranges it's a different story, and while cooler conditions are expected the strong winds will likely keep temperatures around normal for October "Eastern parts of the South Island, like Christchurch, will likely get a brief southerly change but generally speaking the winds will be from the west or south west which is much drier and warmer than a south or south east wind".
 
Windy weather is expected to dominate some parts of New Zealand this week - especially at the end of the week when a very large high over southern and eastern Australia competes with a very large low in the Southern Ocean. The result being windy and changeable weather for New Zealand.
 
Air pressure in the Southern Ocean could go as low as 955hPa while the high over South Australia is getting closer to 1040hPa.

It's this huge difference in air pressure over a fairly short distance which creates the strong winds over New Zealand.
 
A high next week may cross over the southern Tasman Sea and then the South Island - potentially bringing frosts.
 
The government forecaster, MetService, says they have some confidence of severe gales this Friday and Saturday for Southland, Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay and a moderate risk for rain warnings along the entire West Coast of the South Island.
 
WeatherWatch.co.nz will continue to monitor over the coming days.
 

- WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...t-windy-blast-coming

[OhauitiWeather]

Wednesday will roll around tomorrow, the week does feel like it is moving quickly. For Wednesday eastern areas of both islands are likely to be sunny and warm with northwesterlies freshening, high cloud will develop over the South Island. Westerly winds will be quite strong about Southland, late afternoon southwesterlies develop bringing a few showers which move into Otago later in the evening or overnight.
 


Cloudy weather is likely on the West Coast of the South Island with showers turning to rain in Fiordland by evening.
 
The west coast of the North Island from Taranaki through to Northland will likely have cloudy areas with only a few sunny areas at times, also the risk of the odd shower however it should be dry for the most part. About Wellington and Cook Strait in particular northwesterlies are likely to be strong possibly gusting to gale force at times late afternoon and evening.
 
Thursday will see cool southwesterlies over much of the country then Friday a return to northwesterlies, these northwesterlies could be quite strong from Southland right up to the lower North Island gusting to gale force at times in eastern areas and about Foveaux and Cook Strait.
 
Homepage image / 3rd October 1pm rain map - weathermap.co.nz


By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...winds-way-later-week

[OhauitiWeather]

Tomorrow will be the day of the southwesterly. The North Island is likely to receive some rain or showers in the morning then easing in the afternoon and clearing with sunny areas developing in most places, winds will be a bit brisk but nothing harmful. The east coast will start the day with west to northwest winds but southwesterlies will creep north in the afternoon bringing a few showers. A few showers may linger about the Hawkes Bay and Gisborne ranges till evening then clearing at night.



For the South Island the front will have already started to pass over in the morning so it will be a day of southwesterlies easing and morning cloud breaking, with sunny periods increasing. Wet weather is looking rather unlikely although morning showers about Buller could be likely and a few lingering showers about Southland and Otago are possible but they will clear early on.
 
Later in the evening a northwesterly airflow develops over the South Island so high cloud will start to increase from evening tomorrow and rain will develop on the West Coast overnight. Friday is likely to see quite strong northwesterly winds for many places.

Homepage image / 4th October 1pm rain map - weathermap.co.nz

 
By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...hwesterlies-thursday

[OhauitiWeather]

A front due overnight Friday and into Saturday from the Southern Ocean will bring cold weather to many regions. Overall amounts of precipitation (ie, rain, snow, sleet etc) from this system shouldn't be too large. That means where snow will fall it is unlikely to cause many issues, apart from in the far south of the country.
 
WeatherWatch.co.nz weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson says the first front bringing the start of the cold air will actually hit Southland on Friday afternoon but the coldest air won’t arrive until night time."Snow is likely to fall to 400 metres in Fiordland, Southland and southern parts of coastal Otago from Friday night through to Saturday afternoon then clearing".
 
The southern ski fields about the Queenstown area will likely get some snow during this bout of cold weather during the same time frame and should be a nice top up as the end of the season draws near. North Island ski fields will get a dusting on Saturday also.
 
Snow levels will be above most farms still in lambing, but wind chills will be in the low single digits at times - however the system is short lived and likely to cause very few stock losses.
 
As the cold change gets into Canterbury there will not be much moisture left in the front and while some showers will pass through on Saturday amounts are not likely to be high, any snow flurries will stick above 700m.
 
Mr Wilkinson says the biggest concern with this system will more likely be gales first coming in ahead of the front on Friday from the northwest. "From Inland Otago to the east and up through to Cook Strait will be affected on Friday then on Saturday strong cold west to southwest winds will move in about the Southland coast and the Catlins then easing there at night. Frosts will also develop in inland areas of Otago and Canterbury on Saturday night - which will be of concern to growers".
 
It will get quite cold about some sheltered North Island areas later on Saturday and into Sunday morning however it may just escape frosts. Orchardists are advised to monitor conditions closely as far north as Waikato and Bay of Plenty however frosts may be made even less likely by incoming northerlies ahead of a Tasman Sea low and front on Monday.
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...terly-front-saturday