Issued by The MetService

Monday
North Island, showers in most places, but only a few showers in the east. South Island, showers in the west clearing. A period of showers in the south and east with snow down to 500 metres in the far south.

Tuesday
Mainly fine, but a few showers about Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay at first and showers linger about the fiords and coastal Southland.

Wednesday
North Island, fine at first, but areas of cloud spreading into western areas during the day. South Island, a few showers in the west, cloudy periods along the east coast, and some rain and cold southerlies developing in the south. Fine elsewhere.

Thursday
North Island, showers in the north and east and mostly fine elsewhere. South Island, becoming fine in the south, but some rain or showers elsewhere.

Friday
North Island, becoming fine in the east, then mostly fine everywhere, apart from a few showers lingering in the north. South Island, rain or showers in the west, and fine elsewhere.

Chatham Islands
Fine spells on Wednesday with southwesterlies. Showers and fresh cold southerlies developing on Thursday. Winds turning southwest on Friday.

Philip Duncan and nzherald.co.nz take a look at the weather for the week ahead and the upcoming weekend - in a nutshell, it's looking a lot calmer than last week!

Link to Video:



WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-video-believe-it-or-not-we-have-a-high-coming

As mentioned yesterday we will be settled for most of this week due to anticyclonic weather, a weak front moves up the east coast of both Island during Thursday however and this will bring a bit of damp weather. The front will also bring some snow flurries to 600 perhaps 500m for eastern parts of the South Island and to 700m for the east coast of the North Island as it moves through. Accumulations won’t be large and due to this not much may settle but could be a nice little top up for ski fields mainly in the south.



The main point of mention will be potentially frosty conditions developing during the nights, this could be of some concern to growers however frosts won’t be too harsh. Tonight is a good candidate for light frosts in sheltered areas of the North Island mainly inland. There is a risk of a light frost about Blenheim and inland parts of Canterbury and Otago early tomorrow morning however temperatures may just teeter on the verge getting down to 1 or 2 degrees, 0 or –1 can’t be ruled out in inland Canterbury and Otago.

Come Thursday morning the front mentioned above will bring cloud so some areas are likely to remain frost free, although Central Otago may see cloud breaking just before dawn and could see temperatures plummet so it is a time to watch. A frost risk also presents itself in inland sheltered areas of the North Island for early Thursday morning.

Friday and Saturday mornings signal possible frosts for many areas especially inland, there is a chance cloud left over from the front on Thursday may continue to affect eastern coastlines so could prevent temperatures dropping too far.

Homepage image / 19th September midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/settled-weather-frosty-some

Tomorrow our forecasted front will brush eastern coastlines in the south and north delivering a period of showers for most regions. Showers will have cleared Southland by tonight and Otago by morning tomorrow, then clearing around midday tomorrow in Canterbury then further north in Marlborough by evening. The east coast of the North Island will see conditions deteriorate around midday and showers or drizzle patches clear later at night.



Out West most areas will be sunny as the flow goes easterly or southeasterly, perhaps some morning cloud clearing. Overnight tomorrow, Northland will start to see some cloud and the chance of a few showers as the southeasterly airflow catches the top of the country. This as a result of the new incoming anticyclone that if some may remember is a bit more beefier then the current one out west today benching 8 hectopascals more at its centre.
 
Now I am a bit of a thunder man, a thunder god would be preferable but can’t aim too high, so where are the next thundery chances going to appear? Well there isn’t too much to go by as this anticyclone will keep things rather settled, however on Saturday there may be a few isolated showers develop about Central Otago due to some surface heating and cooler upper air. Chances are the clouds will not go thundery however it does have that convective element there.
 
Then mid next week a nice pool of cold air may come over the country so that could provide our next shot at thunder, I won’t be too specific there though as it is a while out but something to keep an eye on.
 
Homepage image / 20th September midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
 http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...orrow-nicer-out-west

The front in the Tasman Sea is definitely being held up by our anticyclone out to the east of New Zealand, infact tomorrow it will squeezed between the high out east and another high out west. While heavy rain did look possible for a time about the upper North Island that is now looking to be postponed till later in the week and even then the heaviest falls will be in a different place, near East Cape and northern Hawkes Bay as a low descends from up north.


 
Tomorrow’s heaviest rain is likely to be about North Westland and Buller, overall amounts though shouldn't be too bad with 50 to 80mm of rain expected in those areas from overnight tonight easing in the afternoon tomorrow.
 
There is still a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in Canterbury with a southwest change so it will be something to watch. The risk of storms overnight tonight and tomorrow morning has diminished somewhat for the West Coast of the South Island but a chance still remains. Northlands chances of a storm tomorrow have pretty much gone. It is a long way out but early next week a big cold pool of air may move over New Zealand so that is the next thunderstorm opportunity.
 
Apart from rain on the West Coast tomorrow and possible storms in the afternoon for Canterbury most of the North Island will remain dry although there is the chance of the odd brief shower at times north of the Waikato with fairly cloudy skies and northeasterly breezes, eastern regions in the north will have a sunny day and northerly winds.
 
Expect showers and south to southwesterly winds in Southland and Otago. Marlborough will have dry but cloudy weather and northwesterlies easing during the day, perhaps a few brief showers may spread from the west at night.

Homepage image / 26th September midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz


By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...st-outlook-wednesday