Monday   
Partly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 15C. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 20 km/h. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 mm possible.
   
Tuesday   
Overcast with a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 14C. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 15 to 20 km/h. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 2.0 mm possible.
   
Wednesday   
Overcast with rain, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 15C. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 37.1 mm possible.
   
Thursday   
Overcast with a chance of rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 15C. Winds less than 5 km/h. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 mm possible.
   
Friday   
Overcast. Fog early. High of 17C. Breezy. Winds from the ESE at 15 to 20 km/h.
   
Saturday   
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 17C. Windy. Winds from the ESE at 20 to 30 km/h.

A few showers are expected about the West Coast and the deep south tomorrow.  A piece of energy out over the Tasman Sea will move toward the country tomorrow and help unsettle the weather for South Islanders.

North Islanders may also see some rain, but only those in the far north.  Northland should see some showers move in toward sunset.

For the rest of the country, settled weather is expected for tomorrow.  Don’t look for a lot of sunshine.  Plenty of clouds are likely across much of the country.  The only exception is the lower half of the North Island where sunshine should be abundant.  The upper South Island could start the day fairly sunny, but clouds should bubble as we had into the afternoon hours.


By WeatherWatch.co.nz Analyst Howard Joseph
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/rain-headed-mainland-tomorrow

As an anticyclone slips away to the east of the country and a new weather system approaches from the west the weather around the country is set to deteriorate over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday, some parts around the country are already experiencing this especially after the sunny settled weather we had over the weekend.



WeatherWatch.co.nz analyst Aaron Wilkinson mentioned last week on Wednesday the possibility of thunderstorms for some parts of the country mid this week as unstable air was looking to move over New Zealand. Mr Wilkinson mentions, “As talked about last week thundery conditions did look possible mid this week with some unstable air on the way, this is still holding true for some and from Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning the West Coast of the South Island should receive some thundery weather with heavy rain”.
 
On Wednesday there is a risk of thunderstorms in the east of the South Island mainly in Canterbury with a southwest change in the afternoon, another risk presents itself on Thursday for inland parts of the South Island north of Canterbury in the afternoon and evening due to some convection and warming of the land by the sun. Storms are unlikely to be severe however and for both days the risk of storms actually happening is generally low.
 
Thunderstorm risks for the North Island are low also, a chance does present itself over Northland on Wednesday then on Thursday afternoon afternoon convection may bring a few heavy showers to eastern parts of the North Island.
 
There is a threat of heavy rain about the North Island on Wednesday mainly from Taranaki across to the Bay Of Plenty northwards as the frontal system from the west closes in, western Bay Of Plenty may be an area where the heaviest falls are likely to occur. Overall though warning criteria at this stage has a low chance of being met but Mr Wilkinson mentions that it is advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
 
Homepage image / 25th September midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...oming-frontal-system

The low that has now decided to move in from the north over the upper half of the North Island is likely to deliver some rain possibly heavy to a few areas and windy conditions. Northland is likely to get some heavy rain for a time later on Thursday with strong southeasterly winds, on Friday the heavy rain focus shifts to East Cape, perhaps also eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Hawkes Bay. Strong southeasterly winds are also likely on Friday about East Cape.



For the likes of Auckland, Waikato and eastern Bay of Plenty while it will be cloudy for a time with spells of rain also the nature of the wind flow will mean these areas don’t get as wet as the others mentioned above, the Ruahine and Huiarau Ranges impede the rain penetrating as much into those regions.

The South Island will remain mostly sunny on Thursday however inland there may be a few isolated showers about the ranges, particularly in the Mackenzie Country in the afternoon as the sun heats the land and produces some convection. Friday remains largely sunny aswell with northeasterly breezes along the east coast, light winds elsewhere. On both days some cloud will hang around the top of the South Island i.e. Nelson and Marlborough with the chance of a few showers at times.

On Saturday the low over the North Island weakens and begins to push off then come Sunday we have an increasing west to northwesterly airflow over the country before a cold front on Monday.

Homepage image / 27th September midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz

 
By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/low-moving-north