Tropical Cyclone June

[gabba]

Cyclone number 2 for the season is here. TC June formed in the last few hours from a tropical depression and is currently situated west of Port Vila New Hebrides. Cat 1

Models suggest that the storm or it's remnants will move over New Caledonia, towards Norfolk Island , then head towards nz over the next few days, but this is not exactly clear at this point. More info follows:

Watch out bett

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[gabba]

GALE WARNING 036  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 17/0508 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2
SOUTH 162.2 EAST AT 170400 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.2S 162.2E AT 170400 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.5S 163.2E AT 171600 UTC
              AND NEAR 22.0S 164.1E AT 180400 UTC.

 

[bett]

this is what I have been watching for days now.  Will keep you all posted... Even Australian weather forecast mentioned Norfolk Island

[bett]

Warning Summary at issue time
A Tropical Cyclone Advice has been issued for tropical cyclone June, and a
cyclone WATCH has been declared for Norfolk island.

please refer to Current Tropical Cyclones

Norfolk Island Forecast for  Sunday
Cloudy. Rain increasing in the afternoon, becoming heavy with localised
flooding. Gusty E/NE winds 20/30 knots increasing to 40 knots (75 km/h) by
around midday, with gusts of about 54 knots (100 km/h). Seas becoming very
rough. A heavy N'ly swell developing later.
Precis: Heavy rain developing. Very windy.  Min: 19  Max: 25

[itaranak18]

Weather Watch update 6:30 am

As predicted earlier this week by WeatherWatch.co.nz a tropical cyclone has formed north west of New Zealand in the Coral Sea and is heading directly towards the upper North Island.

Tropical Cyclone June is a category 1 storm with sustained gale force winds located NW of New Caledonia.

WeatherWatch.co.nz predicted the storm may reach category 2 status - out of a scale that goes up to 5. Today Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) agrees, saying June may strengthen to Cat2 later today.

"Tropical Cyclone June is expected to produce a prolonged period of gale force winds, heavy rainfall and moderate to heavy swells over Norfolk Island on Sunday and Monday" says BOM.

"Damaging winds averaging above 75 km/h with gusts of about 100 km/h are expected to develop on Norfolk Island by about midday on Sunday and persist through the remainder of Sunday into Monday morning. The wind is expected to ease [there] later on Monday".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the storm will weaken somewhat and lose it's cyclone status before it reaches New Zealand, as it rapidly drops south and leaves the warm waters of the Coral Sea - which fuels the cyclone.

On Tuesday WeatherWatch.co.nz said we had "high" confidence the low would become a cyclone due to its position over the warm Coral Sea waters.

The remains of June may still be producing severe weather when it reaches New Zealand early next week - with the low potentially lingering until Wednesday morning.

MetService maintains only a "low" risk of severe weather for northern New Zealand but that risk may increase this weekend.   

June is expected to affect the North Island with rain, showers and gusty winds at times over Monday and Tuesday, then easing across Wednesday at this stage.  It looks as though rain may be the main feature, which will be good news for farmers in the north who now need rain.  Some rain may also affect the South Island as the remnants of June pass by on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[gabba]

 TC June expected path has moved towards the south, currently cat 1. Expected to reach cat 2 in the next 12 hours and then rapidly decay to a subtropical low as cooler waters are reached.

RSMC Fiji report as at 8pm nzdt.

STORM WARNING 042  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 18/0704 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE CENTRE 993HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6
SOUTH 164.3 EAST AT 180600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.6S 164.3E at 180600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 181200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW
QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.2S 165.2E AT 181800 UTC
              AND NEAR 27.0S 166.2E AT 190600 UTC.


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 040.


Tropical disturbance advisory


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/0740 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 993HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.6S 164.3E AT 180600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT VIS/EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW
QUADRANT AND
                        AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED PAST 6 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH
OF AN UPPER RIDGE.  OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 2.5,
MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS, T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 24.2S 165.2E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 27.0S 166.2E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 181400 UTC.

[gabba]

Tc June has now been downgraded to a depression status. It moves towards nz today and is expected to bring heavy rain to Northern parts of the country.

Tropical disturbance summary as at 9am yesterday nzdt


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1946 UTC 2014 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 08F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
165.1E AT 181800 UTC. POSITION POOR ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS AND LIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, LLCC SHEARED 85NM FROM
DEEP CONVECTION YEILDING DT OF 2.0, MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON
MET THUS, T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBNACE ADVISORY ON EX-TROPICAL
CYCLONE JUNE.


 

[gabba]

Metservice provided Msl pressure map forecasted for 1pm today