Tropical Cyclone likely north of NZ this weekend

[Te Puke Weather]

Tropical Cyclone likely north of NZ this weekend

WeatherWatch.co.nz weather forecasters are continuing to monitor a developing low in the Coral Sea north west of New Zealand where a tropical cyclone is expected to develop by the end of the week or weekend.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the tropics have "roared into life" in the past few days and long range models indicate there will be plenty of activity north of us over the next few weeks - but will any of the rain reach New Zealand?

"By next Monday there could be as many as four tropical lows north of New Zealand, one likely to be a tropical cyclone. But despite all this mounting pressure to bring rain, to northern New Zealand especially, the highs over us maintain the strength to hold back these plump rain makers".

"However as we head through March the highs over us will dip further south - that opens up the increased chances of rain moving into northern New Zealand".

As for the cyclone, the long range models remain conflicted.  The most trusted cyclone data we have suggests the cyclone will drift down the Queensland or even New South Wales coastline(s).  However yesterday afternoon the models were picking this then ex-cyclone would reach New Zealand in about 10 days time.  This morning, unfortunately for many, the models have again backed off from that scenario.

"Computer models have been flip flopping a lot more lately as they try to pick the rain makers out from the large highs - this is a tough weather pattern we're in.  In every case it's a battle to see who will win, the high or the low - and so far this year the highs have been winning almost every fight.  The law of averages says this can't continue forever".

But in the short term the nation looks very dry.  Rain that was possible next week now looks as though it will fall painfully close to New Zealand, but out at sea.  A trend that has started to form as the tropics start to wake up.

However the cracks around our stubborn highs continue to grow - with showers likely creeping into regional forecasts more and more over the coming weeks.

As for the cyclone - WeatherWatch.co.nz says those in eastern Queensland and coastal New South Wales should monitor forecasts very closely - as should New Zealanders keen on rain, however as of this morning the chance of the cyclone reaching New Zealand was still considered low to moderate - or about 30% - and that also goes for the chances of much needed substantial rain.

- By Head Weather Analyst Philip Duncan, WeatherWatch.co.nz

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[Weather Display]

its so far out and the models are so undecided, its hardly worth mentioning at this stage

[Te Puke Weather]

Yes, Weather Display that may be true, however its still in the news, and it weather events, and ant that what the forum is about.  I did write the story, just posted it.

If you feel that this is such an issue, may be you should contact Weather Watch???

[Weather Display]

they are just trying make news when the weather is otherwise boring
its hardly a newsworthy event though

and the headline is misleading too

its forming in the tropics, Coral Sea area
along way from NZ, and nothing to do with NZ at this stage

would have been better to say forming in the tropics

[Te Puke Weather]

Gee its a real issue for you ant it!!

[gabba]

I tend to take a bit of perspective on this one, and it does highlight why I'm not such a fan of Weather Watch. Don't get me wrong, I respect what they do, and I know they have their fans, but I'm always reminded by the fact that they were set up and remain supported by a media company, and as such are driven by the media. Occasionally you will see media spin come from them, and I think this is possibly a good example. Also, it does appear that there is some competition going on between them and the Metservice, which often leads to early inaccurate reporting from Weather Watch to get the news out first- so it doesn't surprise me that this sort of thing comes from them. Over reporting when it comes to the weather can be just as dangerous as under reporting.


So what you end up with is big headlines, and then if you check out the detail, there isn't a lot of substance to it. The average NZer just laps up the sensationalism of it all.

As I said, what they do has a place in the market, but whenever I see stuff from them, I always try to moderate it with a bit of common sense.

[gabba]

Here's what the BOM says about it:

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 6th of March 2013 and valid until end of
Saturday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 12pm AEST, the monsoon trough extended across the northern Coral Sea to a low
near 17.6S 153.8E, about 770km east-northeast of Townsville. The low is forecast
to move northeast while intensifying and is likely to reach tropical cyclone
strength during Thursday. The system is expected to continue intensifying while
moving generally east to southeast on Friday and Saturday, remaining well
offshore from the Queensland coast. This system is not expected to affect the
Queensland coast during the outlook period. 

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: High
Friday:   High
Saturday: High

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5%     Low:  5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50%        High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

And the next 3 days MSLP map is here:
 http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=Qld&model=A

[Weather Display]

yeah, GFS and BOM models has it hitting Queensland at this stage
they dont need any more rain/wind damage

Gee its a real issue for you ant it!!

well, I have been tracking cyclones for 30 years now...

[gabba]

Latest BOM update. Will move this one into the watch board when it organises itself over the next 24 hours

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 7th of March 2013 and valid until end of
Sunday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm AEST Thursday, the monsoon trough extended across the northern Coral Sea
to a low near 16.4S 155.6E, about 1050km east of Cairns. The low is forecast to
move in a general eastwards direction while intensifying and is likely to reach
tropical cyclone strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. The system is expected
to continue intensifying while moving southeast over the weekend. This system is
not expected to affect the Queensland coast during the outlook period. 

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:   High
Saturday: High
Sunday:   High

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5%     Low:  5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50%        High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Weather Display]

will be our best chance for drought breaking rain..but its a long shot ...
its either going to hit Oz and run out of puff
or slide down the western tasman and the affect us
models are all over the place with it..still to early to tell
one to watch

[Weather Display]

ECMWF are playing with the idea that it will come down this way in a weeks time
time will tell!

[Te Puke Weather]

*** From Weather Watch ***

Cyclone Sandra forms

It's been talked about for a few days in meteorological circles and finally the cyclone off Australia has been named and also reached officially cyclone status.

Cyclone Sandra has formed in the Coral Sea off the Queensland coast.

The category one system formed overnight and is situated a significant distance from the State at about 1,000 kilometres north-east of Mackay.

It is moving at a reasonable speed in a north-east direction at about 13 kilometres per hour.

Sandra is expected to intensify over the next 24 hours before turning southwards.

It should eventually start turning around to the east and the south-east and eventually south and at this point in time it's heading to the southern ocean off the Queensland coastline or well off the coastline

It is predicted the system will remain well offshore until at least the middle of next week.

There's a chance of it tracking unsually westwards after that period and forecastsers are keeping an eye on Sandra as she churns out at sea.
 

WeatherWatch