Cyclone Garry

[gabba]

Tropical Cyclone Gary currently North of Samoa Category 1. Expected to increase in strength to category 3 over the next 48 hours

Updates are available here:
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

Storm Warning courtesy of Fiji Met Service:

STORM WARNING 065  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/0702 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2
SOUTH 172.5 WEST AT 210600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.2S 172.5W AT 210600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 220600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 11.3S 171.3W AT 211800 UTC
              AND NEAR 11.4S 170.5W AT 220600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 064.

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[gabba]

New and Image from stuff.co.nz

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/8203472/Storm-sparks-evacuations-in-Samoas

[gabba]

Cyclone Garry, currently sitting North of Pago Pago, American Samoa

From Fiji Met Service

STORM WARNING 067  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/1907 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2
SOUTH 170.9 WEST AT 211800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.2S 170.9W AT 211800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 221800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.3S 169.6W AT 220600 UTC
              AND NEAR 12.4S 168.7W AT 221800 UTC.

[gabba]

Tropical Cyclone Garry now moving south east Now at Category 2

Expected to remain at category 2 as it travels towards Samoa over the next 3 days. JTWC Track follows

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1013.gif

Update from Fiji Met service:

STORM WARNING 073  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 23/0739 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1
SOUTH 168.3 WEST AT 230600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.1S 168.3W AT 230600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 240600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.3S 167.5W AT 231800 UTC
              AND NEAR 14.8S 166.4W AT 240600 UTC.
 

[gabba]

Cyclone Garry has intensified to a TC cat 3 over the last 24 hours. Currently travelling East SE, but expected to travel SE over the next 12 hours

Here is a very good description of what is going on (http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1013web.txt):
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 164.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS,
WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW. A 240653Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALMOST
ENTIRELY AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 240305Z 37GHZ
COLOR ENHANCED MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT AUTOMATED ESTIMATIONS AND
PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATING SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 05 DEGREES WEST OF A
MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES TO THE WEST. EARLIER, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TROUGH WAS
IMPINGING ON THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OF TC 10P, HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH HAVE ABATED. AS A RESULT,
RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED AND A LINKAGE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS SET UP, LIKELY FUELING THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AROUND TAU 48, A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL ASSUME
STEERING RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC GARRY IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE
STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. AFTER TAU 12, CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND VWS BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE,
REACHING VALUES NEAR 40 KNOTS. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 25 DEGREES LATITUDE, AROUND
TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 120 AS
IT IS FULLY IMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE TO BELOW 35
KNOTS BEFORE TAU 72 DUE TO VERY STRONG VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING SINGLE-MODEL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS, HAVE COME INTO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z.

[gabba]

Garry continues to move SE at 15 knots, Centre est 970hPa. Look for a decay in intensity over the next 24 to 48 hours

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1013web.txt

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
FUEL THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS. THE TRACK SPEED
HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERACT, INCREASING THE GRADIENT PRESSURE ON THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES THAT ARE REORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ORIENTATION IS NOW IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND HAS
MITIGATED THE HIGH LEVELS (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); THE NET EFFECT CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING TC 10P TO
ACCELERATE ON A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE CYCLONE; IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. AS TC GARRY TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR ITS RAPID DECAY. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 21
FEET.

[gabba]

Tropical Cyclone Garry now category 1 sitting just north of Aitutaki Island. Expected path is to continue to head SE. Further details below:

260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 159.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)HAS NOW BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
260504Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LLCC
WITH A BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 10P IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER DIVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT STILL REMAINS
STRONG AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 10P
SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL COMMENCE BY TAU 36 AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.
TC 10P SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING
OF DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC MODEL
FIELDS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AFTER ETT, TC 10P WILL PERSIST
AS A NEAR GALE FORCE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//

[gabba]

TC Garry Continues to weaken as it moves SE. Currently located SE of Rarotonga and , it has followed a more southerly direction in the last 12 hours, but expected to move SE over the next few days. By UTC 00:00 on 28/1 TC Garry is expected to have weakened into a tropical depression, and continue to move SE.

Tropical Cyclone Garry [995hpa] Category 1 was analysed near 23.1S 158.6W at 270300 UTC. It was moving south-southeast at 15 knots.

Thread will be updated if anything more significant occurs with this event