Weather in Australia 2023 and up

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Unusual time for tropical cyclone activity

The tropical cyclone season for the Australian region – which includes part of the Solomon Islands – runs from November to April. This is when the oceans are warmest and the atmosphere is most supportive of cyclone development in the Southern Hemisphere tropics. The vast majority of past tropical cyclones in the Australian region have developed during this six-month period.

However, tropical cyclones can develop outside the traditional cyclone season. On rare occasions, they can even form during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter.

Since 1970, there have only been four tropical cyclones in or near the Australian region during July, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s tropical cyclone database.

The most recent was an unnamed system that briefly became a tropical cyclone near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in late July 2022. While this system was not named in real-time, a post-event analysis determined that it had intensified enough to be classified as a category 1 tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Raquel was the next most recent July cyclone, forming near the Solomon Islands on July 1, 2015, and dissipating the next day. Raquel was the first tropical cyclone in records dating back to 1970 to form in Australia's Eastern Region during July.

Other July tropical cyclones included one more unnamed system in 2007 and Tropical Cyclone Lindsay in 1996, both located over the Indian Ocean to the west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

If a tropical cyclone does develop or move into the Australian region near the Solomon Islands later this week, it would become only the second time a tropical cyclone has formed in the Eastern Region during July.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/rare-july-tropical-cyclone-risk-in-southwest-pacific-this-week/1891437

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A classic winter cold front will surge across southeastern Australia this weekend, with widespread showers and strong winds throughout the weekend, while snowfalls will commence in the alpine region later on Saturday.

The engine of this system is a strong low pressure system centred over the Southern Ocean, closer to Antarctica than Australia. Winds circulating clockwise around this vast system will push moisture and cold air all the way to Tasmania and the southeastern mainland.

Precipitable water and mean sea level pressure over southern Australia and the Southern Ocean at 10 pm (AEST) on Saturday, July 11, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone

Image: Precipitable water and mean sea level pressure over southern Australia and the Southern Ocean at 10 pm (AEST) on Saturday, July 11, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone.

The image above shows the expected position of the low’s centre a long way south of Australia on Saturday night. The main band of precipitation associated with the cold front can be seen crossing the southeast.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cold-wet-windy-weekend-for-southeastern-australia/1891451

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The 2026 Australian snow season has hit its highest snow depth yet after last weekend’s snowfalls, with hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro measuring a snowpack 70.8 cm deep at Spencers Creek, roughly halfway between the NSW ski resorts of Perisher and Thredbo.

But at slightly lower elevations in the mountains where you’d ordinarily expect at least a thin midwinter snow cover, there is currently no natural snow at all.

Huge snow depth difference across just a few hundred metres of elevation

Snowy Hydro has three sites where it has measured the snow depth at frequent intervals in the cooler months since 1954.

Spencers Creek is the highest, at 1830 metres above sea level. Three Mile Dam, near Selwyn Snow Resort in NSW, is the lowest at 1460 metres.

The contrast between the two could hardly be more stark at present. While Spencers Creek has 70.8 cm, Three Mile Dam has no measurable snow at all.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/snow-depth-hits-70-cm-up-high-lower-elevations-still-grassy/1891460

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A shivering cold start to August swept across southeastern Australia this morning, with several inland locations recording their coldest August minimum temperatures in years, and in some cases, over a decade. 


Some of the standout temperatures this morning included:


Leigh Creek, SA: -0.3°C (coldest August morning in 18 years)

Fowlers Gap, NSW: -1.4°C (14 years)

Ballera, QLD: 3.1°C (12 years)

Whyalla, SA: -0.4°C (12 years)

Broken Hill Airport, NSW: -0.6°C (8 years)

Roxby Downs, SA: -0.2°C (7 years)

The cold was also felt across the southeast's capital cities, with temperatures falling well below the early August average:


Canberra, ACT: -3.9°C (4.4°C below average)

Melbourne, VIC: 2.6°C (3.9°C below average)

Adelaide, SA: 4.9°C (3.0°C below average)
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/brrr-a-shivering-start-to-august-for-parts-of-southeastern-australia-/1891484

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A sharp polar outbreak has swept southern Australia, delivering near-decade cold in the west and fresh heavy snow across the Alps.

Perth dropped to 2.5C (36.5F) Tuesday morning—its coldest August reading in nine years.

Bunbury fell to 0.8C (33.4F), its coldest August morning in a decade; Pearce reached 1.5C (34.7F), its lowest for the month in 11 years; while York dipped to -1C (30.2F).

The cold then pushed east, bringing another round of alpine snow.

Mt Hotham picked up 13 cm (5.1 inches) in 24 hours and 31 cm (12.2 inches) over the past week.

Perisher has also received 31 cm in seven days, while Thredbo added further snow Tuesday night as freezing conditions persisted across the higher peaks.

At Spencers Creek, there was no measurable snow on July 1—only the second such occurrence in the entire record. But now, by Aug 12, depth has rebounded to 96 cm (37.8 inches), already exceeding some full-season peaks, including 1982 and 2006.

Australia’s alpine winter has staged an impressive turnaround.

https://electroverse.substack.com/p/antarctic-chill-sweeps-australia

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A thick northwest cloudband could cause rain over a large area of Australia next week as a stream of tropical moisture extends thousands of kilometres from the Indian Ocean towards southeastern Australia.


A slow-moving upper-level trough will cause rain to spread across parts of central Australia this weekend into early next week. This system will then be followed by another upper-level trough next week, which forecast models suggest could produce a northwest cloudband and widespread rain.


These rain-bearing systems will be fuelled by abnormally warm seas surrounding Australia, which will provide extra moisture in the atmosphere to generate rain.
Sea surface temperature anomalies near Australia on August 12, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies near Australia on August 12, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

The map below shows how much rain is expected to fall during the next seven days. According to this model (the ECMWF model), widespread totals of 20–40 mm are likely over central and southeastern Australia, with isolated falls of around 40–60 mm possible through parts of SA, Vic, NSW, the ACT and Tas.

ECMWF 7-day rainfall leading up to Thursday, August 20. Source: Weatherzone.

At this stage, further rain could extend into the latter half of next week, possibly allowing parts of southeastern Australia to see accumulated totals of 60–80 mm between now and Sunday, August 23.

There is some uncertainty regarding where and how much rain will fall next week. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings for the most accurate information.

Weatherzone.

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The huge northwest cloudband that was the topic of interest in Thursday's story, could be seen splitting the country in satellite imagery on Friday 21st.

Image: Thirty-minute satellite loop from 10:50am AEST on Wednesday 19th to 10:20am AEST on Saturday 22nd.

The northwest cloudband spanned 7000km yesterday, stretching from Western Australia's Gascoyne to NSW's northeast. Not only did it visually split the country, the cloudband marked the boundary between hot air and cold air quite distinctly as we can see with 4:15pm temperatures being overlayed on top of the satellite image.
As mentioned in "What is a northwest cloudband", the cloudband draws tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean across the country, pushed by a passing system like a cold front from the south. We can also distinctly see the moisture in the cloud band compared to the other parts of the country.

The cloudband is dissipating over the weekend as the trough and front system that provided its moisture and motion have moved over the Tasman Sea. The system is looking to bring substantial winds to our neighbours across the pond, with forecast winds up to 120km/h forecast for the New Zealand Alps and areas about the Cook Strait. Other than winds, MetService has issued weather warnings for heavy rainfall of 140-160mm, 1-5cm of snow above 500m and swell up to 4 to 4.5m over the weekend.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/watch-this-7000km-cloudband-splits-australia-into-two/1891520

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As of 9am on Friday, August 28, Sydney's running mean seasonal temperature for this winter stood at 15.27°C – around 2.25°C above the long-term winter average and on track to beat the previous record of 14.95°C set in 2013.


This season’s record-breaking warmth was caused by a lack of strong cold fronts over southeastern Australia, which limited cooling in the city. This lack of frontal activity also caused the Australian Alps to have one of their worst snow seasons on record.


Another factor that contributed to the warmth in Sydney this winter was an absence of East Coast Lows. These systems, which are most likely to occur in winter, typically cause several days of cloud and rain over eastern NSW, which suppress maximum temperatures. Without any East Coast Lows, Sydney has had more relatively warm days.


It was also a dry winter for Sydney, with the city only registering 186.2 mm of rain, which is well below the seasonal average of 311 mm.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/warm-start-to-spring-to-follow-sydneys-warmest-winter-on-record/1891528