This Week's Weather Forecasting 13th - 17th Feb 2012

[JennyLeez]

From Phil at weatherwatch:
I wish I had better news for those of you hoping to have a Valentine's Day picnic under the sun or stars.

You may want to think about making reservations at a nice restaurant instead.

A Tasmanian low pressure centre will be heading our direction on Tuesday.  As it gets closer to us, our chances for seeing showers goes up.

That doesn't mean all of New Zealand will be getting wet all day long.  The North Island looks to have the best chance for showers in the morning and afternoon.  Northland through Taranaki will have the best chance for seeing showers early in the day.  The rest of the island may have to wait until mid to late afternoon.

The South Island should be dry in the morning and early afternoon, but could then see showers for the late afternoon and evening.  The best chance for seeing showers there will be, just about everywhere.  The models are trying to keep Southland and Otago dry for Tuesday, but I wouldn't bet on it.  With the onshore flow that should develop on Tuesday, it's very difficult to completely rule out showers.  Although central Otago should stay dry, regardless.

Daytime highs across the country should range from the mid teens to lower 20's.

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[JennyLeez]

Just great. Look at my forecast for Valentines Day

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with thunderstorms and a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog early. High of 24°C. Winds from the SE at 5-20 km/h. Chance of rain 20% with rainfall amounts near 2.3 mm possible.


Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the evening, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. Low of 15°C. Winds from the NNE at 5-15 km/h shifting to the WNW after midnight. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 8.6 mm possible.

[Suezy]

We have drizzle forecast for the next 3 days then on the 20th it turns to real custard with rain for three days. That info is taken from the NZ  Met Service site.
Valentines Day is drizzle forecasted for here.

[TokWW]

http://www.metservice.com/national/warnings/severe-thunderstorm-outlook

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 15 Feb 2012
Issued at: 9:12am Wednesday 15 Feb 2012

A band of rain with embedded heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm lies across northern Auckland, southern Northland and in the vicinity of northern Coromandel Peninsula. There is a continued moderate risk of some local downpours in the 25-40mm/hr range until midday when the situation is expected to ease. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until then.

Then this afternoon, afternoon heating is expected to lead to widespread shower activity over much of the North Island, especially in western and central areas.There is a moderate risk that some of these showers may turn thundery from Northland to the central plateau to northern Wairarapa and over to Taranaki.These may support rainfall rates in the 10-25mm/hr range due to relatively slow storm motions. There is a surrounding lower risk thunderstorm area to the east of the main area and over the northwest of the South Island. All thunderstorm activity is expected to die away this evening.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.



http://www.metservice.com/national/warnings/severe-thunderstorm-outlook

[iomkiwi]

Haven't had any here yet

Sent from my Galaxy Tab

[Stefan]

I heard 2 claps of thunder to the north of me, but that was it. Some convection is going on to the south of me at the moment.

[David]

None here either, but then again it was too cloudy and cool for much convection too occur

[JennyLeez]

A large water funnel resembling a tornado was seen in the Hauraki Gulf by thousands of Aucklanders today, and there may be more tomorrow.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/weather/news/article.cfm?c_id=10&objectid=10785723

[JennyLeez]

Issued by MetService at 08:06 pm Friday 17 February 2012.
This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
RODNEY.
 
At 07:52 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near HELENSVILLE, KAUKAPAKAPA, AHUROA and MAKARAU.
 
These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the eastnortheast, and are expected to lie near OREWA, KAUKAPAKAPA, AHUROA and MAKARAU at 08:22 pm and near WARKWORTH, OREWA, PUHOI, KAUKAPAKAPA, AHUROA and MAKARAU at 08:52 pm.
 
These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by very heavy rain.
 
Very heavy rain can cause surface and/or flash flooding about streams, gullies and urban areas, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous.
 
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in force for AUCKLAND, BAY OF PLENTY, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, NORTHLAND and WAIKATO.
 
The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises that as storms approach you should:
- Take shelter, preferably indoors away from windows;
- Avoid sheltering under trees, if outside;
- Move cars under cover or away from trees;
- Secure any loose objects around your property;
- Check that drains and gutters are clear;
- Be ready to slow down or stop, if driving.
During and after the storm, you should also:
- Beware of fallen trees and power lines;
- Avoid streams and drains as you may be swept away in flash flooding.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/severe-thunderstorm-warning-rodney