Scientists jailed over quake warning failure

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Scientists jailed over quake warning failure
Last updated 07:40 23/10/2012


Getty Images DISASTER ZONE: A car in the rubble of the provincial government headquarters, "Palazzio del Governo", on the Abruzzo capital L'Aquila after the April, 2009 earthquake.
An Italian court has convicted six scientists and a government official of manslaughter and sentenced them to six years in prison for failing to give adequate warning of a deadly quake which destroyed the central city of L'Aquila and killed more than 300 people in 2009.

The seven, all members of an official body called the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks, were accused of negligence and malpractice in their evaluation of the danger of a quake and their duty to keep the city informed of the risks.

The case has drawn wide condemnation from international bodies including the American Geophysical Union, which said the risk of litigation may deter scientists from advising governments or even working to assess seismic risk.

A 6.3 strength earthquake struck L'Aquila, in Italy's Abruzzo region at 3.32am on April 6, 2009, wrecking tens of thousands of buildings, injuring more than 1000 people and killing hundreds of others in their sleep.

At the heart of the case was whether the government-appointed experts gave an overly reassuring picture of the risks facing the town, which contained many ancient and fragile buildings and which had been partially destroyed three times by earthquakes over the centuries.

The case focused in particular on a series of low-level tremors which hit the region in the months preceding the quake and which prosecutors said should have warned experts not to underestimate the risk of a major shock.

The scientists are unlikely to be sent to jail pending a probable appeal trial.

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Uproar as scientists sentenced to jail for giving the all clear before L’Aquila quake

Article Video: scientists found guilty Picture gallery: L’Aquila earthquake
L'Aquila after the quake: it lies on top of a fault line
Maurizio Degl’Innocenti/EPA

James Bone Rome
Published 1 minute ago
There was international outcry from scientists last night after an Italian judge sentenced seismologists to six years’ jail for manslaughter for misleading the public about the risk of an earthquake in the city of L’Aquila.
Scientists insisted that the experts could not have predicted the 6.3 magnitude tremor that killed 309 people in 2009. An open letter from 5,000 scientists to the President of Italy denounced the trial.
The seismologists were charged not with failing to predict the earthquake but for wrongly reassuring the public about the risk. Witnesses told the court that family members had died because after the reassurances they stopped leaving their houses when they noticed tremors, which had gone on for months before the earthquake on April 6, 2009.
“I think there is a risk that more harm will be done than good in terms of how scientists, particularly in Italy, are able to convey information about natural hazards, whether earthquakes or volcanos,” said Brooks Hanson of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. “What this is going to say is that you will always have to over-react. You are going to create more panic and fear.”
Roger Musson, head of seismic hazard at the British Geological Survey, said: “This is a very sad business indeed, these are people I know, who were doing their best to give an accurate account of large earthquakes. It seems to be wrong that they should be prosecuted for offering scientific advice to the best of their ability. It will certainly make scientists less free in speaking out.”
David Rothery, senior lecturer in earth sciences at the Open University, said: “I hope they will appeal. Earthquakes are inherently unpredictable . . . there are no certainties in this game.”
Judge Marco Billi sentenced six scientists and one official who took part in a meeting of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks in L’Aquila six days before the earthquake. After the meeting, two members of the group said at a press conference that, despite recent tremors, there was nothing to fear.
Bernardo De Bernardinis, a senior official from Italy’s Civil Protection Agency, said on television that residents faced “no danger” and should sit back with a glass of wine — recommending a Montepulciano.
Mr De Bernardinis said after the verdict: “I consider myself innocent in front of God and man.”
L’Aquila is on a fault that runs almost the length of Italy and suffered major earthquakes in 1349, 1461 and 1703. The trial was held in a makeshift courtroom in an industrial zone on the outskirts because, even three years on, much of the city centre is deserted.
Linda Giugno testified that she called her brother Luigi, a forester, at about 1am on the night of the disaster because she was frightened by the shocks. Luigi, who had heard reassuring TV news reports, told her that there was no danger and said that there was no need to wake his wife, who was due to give birth that day. When the quake struck at 3.23am, Luigi’s 18th-century house collapsed, killing him, his wife and their two-year-old son.
The scientists on trial were Enzo Boschi, who was head of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Giulio Selvaggi, head of the institute’s national earthquake centre in Rome, Franco Barberi of Rome Three University, Mauro Dolce, head of the Civil Protection Agency’s seismic risk office, Gian Michele Calvi, head of the European centre of earthquake engineering and Claudio Eva of the University of Genoa.
The sentence must be confirmed at two levels of appeal.
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Uproar as scientists sentenced to jail for giving the all clear before L’Aquila quake | The Times