Snow won't go: Winter weather system stalls over southeastern Manitoba
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winter-snowfall-warning-manitoba-1.4858303

ATLANTIC CANADA | The Next One
'Weather bomb' threatens Atl. Canada, winter storm for some

NEWFOUNDLAND: Damaging winds over 120 km/h followed by SNOW?
Monday, October 15, 2018, 6:16 PM -    After a bout of wet weather in Atlantic Canada, courtesy of the remnants of Michael, all eyes are now on a potent low set to deepen over the Gulf of the St. Lawrence Monday night through Tuesday, which will likely spiral into the first 'weather bomb' of the fall season for the Atlantic provinces. The storm will boast wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h along with heavy rainfall while simultaneously developing into a full-fledged winter storm for some. More on the specific impacts of this system, and a definition for what exactly a 'weather bomb' is, below.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS:
    Intense low deepens over Atlantic Canada Monday night into Tuesday
    Low pressure system has the potential to 'bomb out'
    Heavy rain and 100 km/h wind gusts possible, especially in southern and eastern Newfoundland
    Wind warnings in effect for ALL of Newfoundland, parts of Maritimes; winter storm warnings for Eagle River, Labrador

'Weather bomb' is an unofficial term, describing a low pressure system who's central pressure falls 24 millibars (or more) in 24 hours. This process is known meteorologically as explosive cyclogenesis or bombogenesis.

These storms are famous for their winds. Tropical storm to hurricane-force wind gusts can be associated with weather bombs -- essentially, the lower the central pressure, the stronger the storm. The 'deeper' the low becomes (the lower the central pressure), the more intense its wind field will be.

For example, in a hurricane the central pressure drops to extremely low levels. Back in October of 1979, Typhoon Tip's pressure dropped to a staggering 870 mb in the western Pacific Ocean, and still holds the lowest pressure recorded by a tropical cyclone. While we won't come close to this type of pressure, it's the rapid intensification (in combination with a couple of other factors) that can generate destructive hurricane-force wind gusts.

STORM FORECAST
A deepening upper level trough over northern Ontario is set to slide in behind a weak low exiting southern Ontario late Monday.

"This will draw in dry air aloft from the central U.S., while the low simultaneously starts to tap into the warm, moist surface air over the Atlantic Ocean," says Weather Network meteorologist Kevin MacKay. "All of these factors will work together to rapidly deepen the low over the course of Monday night and Tuesday, resulting in the low to potentially 'bomb out' over Atlantic Canada."

Winds will begin to increase Monday night through Tuesday, but may be in excess of 100 km/h especially along southern and eastern portions of Newfoundland, as well as Nova Scotia's Inverness and Victory counties and across Prince Edward Island. Anticipate a rather windy and wet day throughout Newfoundland, with the potential for some power outages across the island, especially in the hardest hit areas of the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas, including the city of St. John's.

"We are currently highlighting the threat for wind gusts of up to 100 km/h, but there is some potential for the winds to overachieve with the threat for damaging gusts of 120+ km/h," says Weather Network meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham. "The strongest winds may not mix all the way to the surface, but we will closely monitor the threat for damaging wind."

RAINFALL AMOUNTS
Along with the powerful winds, heavy rain will be working its way east, beginning Monday night through the Maritimes into Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday across Newfoundland. Opting for a poncho may be best way to tackle the wet weather on Tuesday as the winds will essentially make for a useless umbrella.

As the low deepens and tracks near Red Bay, cold air will wrap around the storm, producing a swath of heavy snowfall through Eagle River and parts of southeastern Labrador. Some residents, including areas along the Trans-Labrador Highway from Happy Valley-Goose Bay and Port Hope Simpson, will pick up 20 to 30 cm by Wednesday morning. Driving will become hazardous as the winds and snowfall pick up in tandem and visibility drops to near zero at times Tuesday.

POST-WEATHER BOMB: UNSETTLED PATTERN, FIRST FLAKES FOR SOME
Behind the system Tuesday night and through the rest of the week, a deep trough in the jet stream will sweep cold air over the region, setting the stage for some sea-effect snow off the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

As the cold air lingers late week, another low travels over the Atlantic, but the circumstances will be much different this time around across the south. Rain will mix and change to snow, potentially accumulating across parts of the Maritimes, particularly for the Cape Breton Highlands and over central/western Newfoundland.

"Yet another system will strengthen as it tracks north of the region this weekend, but a secondary low could develop over the Maritimes, bringing strong winds and rain with heavy snow for parts of Labrador," says Gillham.

Check back for updates as we continue to monitor this system.

With files from meteorologist Erin Wenckstern.

CANADA | Winter is Coming
Canada is out-snowing the King of Winter
Canada's the new 'King', in terms of having the most area covered in snow

Wednesday, October 17, 2018, 6:00 AM -    Well Canada, you have accomplished quite the feat so far this fall: out-snowing the reigning King of Winter, Siberia. Known for its bone-chilling, eyelash-freezing -50°C temperatures, there's often no contest when it comes to Siberia versus North America in the snowfall department, but this season has been on the extreme ends for both regions, allowing Canada to briefly steal the title.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/canada-out-snows-siberia-fall-snowfall-record-pattern-change/115127

'The blob' returns, storms next week to put it to the test
THE BLOB: It's back, what it means for the weather in British Columbia

Thursday, October 18, 2018, 3:44 PM -    It's back. The last known sighting of "The Blob" was in the fall of 2016; subsequently, it quickly dissolved into a pool of cooler-than-normal sea surface temperature anomalies off the coast of British Columbia. An even more impressive blob was in place in 2014, and played a key role in dictating the weather patterns for the Pacific Northwest, especially in the winter months.

Are we off the hook for a snowy winter?
FAST FACTS: THE BLOB
    Large anomalous area of elevated water temperature in the northern Pacific Ocean, first developed in 2014 and lingered well into 2015
    The 'ridiculous resilient ridge' was a major culprit to the warming, as this semi-permanent feature become a dominant weather feature
    After a brief resurgence in September 2016, the blob faded away, until October 2018, where signs are emerging of its triumphant return
    Active storm track will burst into the scene next week, and will be a big test for the blob

Those who reside in British Columbia know how tame the winter of 2014 and 2015 was for lower elevation snow, with many locations remaining snow-free for several years immediately adjacent to the water. The latter year, 2015, scraped by with near normal snowfall for a large chuck of the alpine, but 2014 was atrocious in most alpine locations across the province.

After the brief resurgence of the blob in September 2016, a cool sea surface temperature anomaly developed as we entered the heart of the 2017 winter season.

Those in Vancouver and across the South Coast were pummeled by numerous rounds of snowfall, especially in February of 2017, with snow depth in excess of 40 cm in pockets – even at sea level locations.

LONG TERM BLOB FORECAST
When dissecting the next several weeks of weather predictions and computer models, an active storm track will burst into the scene next week, and will be a big test for the blob. The resilient ridging and 'mega ridge' in Alaska has also played a significant role in fueling the extreme water temperature anomalies, but the fall storms are great at mixing and stirring up the stagnant water, which may wash out the warm anomaly. But, this is highly dependent on how deep this temperature anomaly exists below the sea surface. If it's a relatively shallow feature, Pacific storms should have some success in dismantling the blob.

But, it won't be a permanent pattern change. We have high confidence for a return to ridging towards the end of October and into early November. If the blob survives the brief bout of stormy weather next week, it's possible it may become more reinforced in November.

Ocean too warm to cool Canadian science ship's engines
CBC News

Monday, October 22, 2018, 2:10 PM -    Offshore Nova Scotia surface ocean temperatures were so warm earlier this month they forced a Canadian research ship that uses seawater to cool its engines to slow down.

The Canadian Coast Guard Ship Hudson was carrying out its annual fall ocean conditions survey in September and October and sailing through water measuring 20 to 24 C.

That is five or six degrees above normal, said research scientist Dave Hebert who was on board.

Warm enough the chief engineer took notice.
"The temperatures were pretty warm so it was harder for them to cool the engines down. They didn't run it with all the engines running because the engine was getting too hot. And they just couldn't do it," said Hebert.

The four engine Hudson slowed from 14 to 10 knots, he said and ran on two of its four engines until it encountered cooler water closer to shore.

It had no impact on the mission, but it got Dave Hebert's attention, who has served on many Hudson cruises as part of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program.

"We've really never had this issue before but the ship has operated in warmer water. So they [the crew] are used to that sort of thing, but it was new to me to hear that," he said.

Hebert said the warm surface temperatures are no mystery. They were a hangover from the heat wave that struck Atlantic Canada in the summer of 2018 and an absence of storms.

On board the Hudson the fall trip itself was conducted in tee shirt and shorts weather on flat seas. In deeper water scientists recorded cooler temperatures justly slightly above the thirty year average.

Hebert said the most recent readings show the surface temperatures are returning to normal at around 14 C.

This story was written for the CBC by Paul Withers.

Yesterday's hot and cold spots ...

Hot spot in Ontario: 11.2 °C  52.2 °F Fort Frances

Cold spot in Ontario: -7.2 °C  19.0 °F Atikokan

Hot spot in Canada: 25.2 °C  77.4 °F Cross Lake Jenpeg, MB

Cold spot in Canada: -31.6 °C  -24.9 °F Shepherd Bay Airport, NU

Canada's dry lakes and dust storms 'warning for planet'
CBC News

Sunday, October 28, 2018, 4:17 PM -    Gwenn Flowers, a glaciologist, trudges back and forth across a vast glacier in southwest Yukon, pulling a radar device mounted on skis behind her.

"We as Canadians are stewards of about a third of the world's mountain glaciers and ice caps, so this is our responsibility," Flowers says.

The dramatic changes to the glaciers in the Yukon are an early warning of what climate change could mean for the rest of the planet, researchers say. And Flowers sees lots of reason for concern reflected in the state of the ice.

Glaciologist Gwenn Flowers tows equipment over Yukon's Kaskawulsh glacier to check its depth. (Susan Ormiston/CBC)

The professor at B.C.'s Simon Fraser University loves ice. She has been coming to do field studies in the St. Elias mountains every summer for the past 13 years.

Her tiny team of three is mapping the Kaskawulsh glacier — 70 kilometres long and five kilometres wide — as it struggles under the double threat of a warming climate and diminishing snow cover.

The research boils down to an inescapable conclusion: The glacier can't compensate for the volume it's losing now each year.

The radar box Flowers tows on skis is specifically adapted for ice, and sends signals deep into the glacier's core, bouncing off the bedrock. In places, the team has found ice more than 800 metres deep.

The team's research shows the ice is rapidly thinning, however, losing about a half metre a year, says Flowers. And the enormous glacier is retreating.

The St. Elias mountain range crossing Yukon, B.C. and Alaska is less well-known than the Canadian Rockies and its icefields. But its ice cover is six times larger, making it the biggest icefield in the world outside Greenland and Antarctica.

Flowers and her team are trying to get a better picture of how the glacier is changing, and what that means to the larger environment.

"As Canadians, given our responsibility to be stewards of this ice, I think we could be doing better. I think Arctic science should be a priority. I think understanding our terrestrial and marine ice should be a national priority," Flowers says.

A 2018 report, entitled State of the Mountains, suggests the glaciers in the St. Elias Mountains are losing more ice than in any other Canadian Alpine area. In the 30 years from 1977 to 2007, the Kaskawulsh lost 17 square kilometres of ice.

Temperatures there have already risen 2 C in the past 50 years. They are predicted to rise at least another three degrees by the turn of the century, unless things change.

Gwenn Flowers says the ice of the Kaskawulsh glacier is thinning rapidly and losing about a half metre a year. (Susan Ormiston/CBC)

Yukon saw a particularly hot July last summer, the warmest in five years with several heat warnings issued.

Leading climate change scientists recently warned that the world has only a dozen years to slow the warming of the planet or risk worse drought, floods, and extreme heat. The authors of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to keep global warming under 1.5 C.

"What the glaciers and ice sheets do makes a big difference to global sea levels, and makes a big difference to local environments where they form a water source," Flowers says.

Around Kluane Lake, two research stations are monitoring the changes in Yukon's climate and glaciers.

Andy Williams came to the area more than 40 years ago to manage the Kluane Lake Research Station. He also founded a small airline service ferrying scientists, hikers and tourists into the icefields.

He's observed enormous changes in the ice over that time. While glaciers naturally advance and retreat, he says, it's "not at this speed."

And the changes in this region reflect what is also happening in the Andes, or the Himalayas, "where there are millions of people relying on a steady flow from glaciers to provide irrigation and drinking water." If those shrink too fast, "the results are catastrophic," he says.

The more rapid thinning of the big ice in Yukon is already causing dramatic consequences further down the mountains, like in the jewel-like Kluane Lake, Yukon's largest, which borders Kluane National Park and Reserve, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

For 300 years, glacial runoff was the major water source for Kluane Lake, flowing in by way of the Slims River. But in May 2016, Kluane Lake levels dropped precipitously. The problem was a case of "river piracy" — incredibly rare, and hugely significant. The terminus or end of the Kaskawulsh glacier had receded enough that a glacial lake that fed the Slims River suddenly drained when the glacier outflow found a new direction to a new river.

It left the Slims River with little water as it made its way down the mountain to Kluane Lake.

Bob Dickson, the chief of Kluane First Nation, stands on the dry bed of what used to be a glacier-fed river. (Susan Ormiston/CBC)

That summer Kluane Lake dropped 1.7 metres, and its levels remain low.

In the Kluane First Nation communities of Burwash and Destruction Bay, the shoreline retreated, restricting boat access to traditional fishing spots. Previous spawning areas for whitefish and trout have popped up above the water line.

"We can't change it," says Bob Dickson, the chief.

"We have to live with this lake in a different way. Hunting areas, fishing areas, all are changing. So we have to learn all over again."

The Alaska Highway, one of the great northern routes from Yukon to Alaska, bisects the Slims River valley. Now huge dust storms often obscure the road, forcing camper vans to slow to a crawl. The riverbed, normally covered in water in late August, looks parched.

A camper drives through a dust storm on the Alaska Highway where it bisects the Slims River valley. The dust is from a dried river bed that used to be fed by the Kaskawulsh glacier.

"You can have dust storms where this whole valley is full of dust, and that's all of the glacier flour, it's just blowing it," says Chief Dickson. "They're really terrible, you can't even see."

Parks Canada is monitoring the "unprecedented" changes.

"We're seeing a 20 per cent difference in area coverage of the glaciers in Kluane National Park and Reserve and the rest of the UNESCO World Heritage site [over a 60-year period]," says Diane Wilson, a field unit superintendent at Parks Canada.

"We've never seen that. It's outside the scope of normal.

"Kluane is is an icon. People are so excited to come and visit this wonderful place, but they should know that it's changing. Climate change knows no boundaries."

With files from Mia Sheldon. Thumbnail: The Kaskawulsh glacier in the Yukon's St. Elias Mountain region, often referred to as a 'highway of ice.' (Susan Ormiston/CBC)

This article was original posted on CBC.ca by Susan Ormiston.

Yesterday's hot and cold spots ...

Hot spot in Ontario: 13.7 °C  56.7 °F Point Pelee

Cold spot in Ontario: -9.1 °C  15.6 °F Timmins Victor Power Airport

Hot spot in Canada: 16.1 °C  61.0 °F St. John's West AAFC, NL

Cold spot in Canada: -23.7 °C  -10.7 °F Ivvavik National Park, YT

Ontario: Big wind prompts warning, risk of outages, closures

Tuesday, November 6, 2018, 8:30 AM -    Weather statements and warnings are widespread across southern Ontario with a strong system set to bring damaging winds to the region on Tuesday. Not only are buildings and powerlines in jeopardy, but drivers are being urged to brace for quickly changing road conditions due to high winds. More on how strong these winds will get, plus a look at the WINTER driving headaches that follow late week, below.

RAIN WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK

Quick on the heels of Monday's widespread rain showers is a second and stronger system tracking through southern Ontario on Tuesday. The low deepens as it pushes from Ontario into Quebec, as colder air feeds in on the back side of the system and a strong jet stream increases instability.

Rain, heavy at times, will move through the Greater Toronto Area and westward, into cottage country and across the Nickel Belt through the day Tuesday. A general 5-10 mm is expected across the lower Great Lakes with closer to 20 mm toward Huron and Georgian Bay. There's also a risk of an isolated embedded thunderstorm, which could enhance rainfall amounts in some areas.

The bulk of the rain is expected to track through eastern Ontario and southern Quebec through Tuesday afternoon and evening with wrap around showers lingering into southern and central regions for Tuesday night.

The greater impact with Tuesday's mild rain system will be the powerful winds with widespread gusts to 70 km/h expected, but between 80-90 km/h gusts along exposed sections of the lake shore. Couple that with an already saturated ground, and that could spell trouble for power outages across parts of the region.

Tuesday's wind threat prompted Environment Canada to issue special weather statements and warnings across the region.

"Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage," warns EC.

Drivers may also face a challenging commute and "changing road conditions" due to the high winds.

While winds remain gusty through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, they'll likely fall below "damaging wind" criteria by that time frame.

By Wednesday, colder weather will spread back into the region along with a strong and gusty northwest wind, which will in turn help to produce some lake-effect snow showers southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Both the wind and lake-effect flurries are set to taper by Thursday, although temperatures remain on the cool side of seasonal.

LAST GUARANTEE FOR JUST RAIN WITH A STORM?

Monday brought showers and milder temperatures to southern Ontario, with highs edging into the double-digits for some spots. That warmth will be with us for at least one more day as daytime highs bump into the low-to-mid teens once again.

Soggy pattern or not, many southern Ontarians have been thinking, at least this is just rain and not snow, right? The recent storms that have hit the region with back-to-back wet days have taken a more northerly track, allowing milder air to surge into southern and central Ontario and allowing for the precipitation to fall as rain. But as we head towards the winter season, we'll start to see more reinforcing shots of colder, arctic air with a storm track further to the south and precipitation falling as snow instead of rain. Is this the 'rain to snow' turning point? Read on for more.

On Friday, another system will track into the Great Lakes region as we closely watch how temperatures could make for some messy weather across the Golden Horseshoe.

"Temperatures will be above freezing across most of the region and rain will likely dominate for areas below the escarpment," says Weather Network meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham. "However, wet snow mixed with rain is expected for areas north of the 401/407, especially above the escarpment and across cottage country with a few centimetres of snow possible."

The rain and mixed precipitation are expected to end as wet snow across most of the region by Friday evening.

Bands of lake-effect snow are likely once again east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through the weekend as we face the coldest weather of the season so far with temperatures much more typical of December.

"And we are closely watching the track of the next system, which will approach the Great Lakes region early next week with temperatures cold enough to give us the potential for some snow," says Gillham, adding that temperatures next week will be much colder than normal and more typical of early to mid December for most of the week.

We're talking "exceptionally" cold temperatures for early to mid November and that rapid decline is thanks in part to some of the coldest air on the other side of the planet.

"A pocket of the coolest air in the world (Siberia) is swirling and a part of that breaks off and slides down to northern Canada this week," explains Tyler Hamilton, another meteorologist at The Weather Network. "It swipes the eastern Prairies and ultimately that cool upper trough will locate itself right over Ontario."

Not only does it bring in the colder air, it's also the perfect recipe to ignite the "lake-effect snow engine."

"We'll continue to see that signal through this upcoming weekend, so be prepared for some very heavy snow at times in the traditional snowbelt areas and we can't rule out snow in the Greater Toronto Area in the next couple of weeks either," Hamilton says.

Yesterday's November 7th hot and cold spots ...

Hot spot in Ontario: 11.7 °C  53.1 °F Moose Creek Wells

Cold spot in Ontario: -15.4 °C  4.3 °F Muskrat Dam Airport

Hot spot in Canada: 17.5 °C  63.5 °F Chéticamp, NS

Cold spot in Canada: -34.8 °C  -30.6 °F Mould Bay, NT