isothermalsection

Author Topic: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER  (Read 8965 times)

Offline Mark

  • Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4399
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 687
  • Gender: Male
    • Bishopdale Weather
(UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« on: July 08, 2012, 08:40:29 AM »

By Sarah Westcott

BRITAIN is facing its “worst ever” summer with cold wet weather ruining family holidays and blighting the Olympics, forecasters warned last night.

August is set to be a washout following a miserable July and the wettest June since records began – meaning summer is effectively over.

Gloomy forecasts suggest dire weather will continue as officials last night put Britain on flood alert after torrential downpours yesterday wreaked havoc.

As the Environment Agency warned of a “potential danger to life” with rivers swelling to breaking point in the Midlands, Yorkshire and Wales, Government forecasters were on standby to brief the Cabinet if severe floods strike.

The agency last night issued 51 flood warnings – meaning flooding is expected – and 135 alerts. Monsoon-like downpours hit 85,000 music fans at the T In The Park festival in Kinross, Scotland, and 28,000 Formula 1 spectators camping for the British Grand Prix weekend at Silverstone. Race meetings today in Nottingham and Carlisle were cancelled while play was delayed on all courts at Wimbledon – other than Centre Court.
 
This could cause significant disruption

Tony Waters, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office

In Leeds, organisers cancelled music festival MFEST over safety concerns.

Emergency services reported a surge of flood callouts, dispatched special operations teams and told motorists not to drive through floodwater.

The misery is set to continue with parts of the Midlands and northern Britain braced for six inches of rain – more than two months’ worth – in the 72 hours to tomorrow night.

Tony Waters, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: “We are expecting very heavy and thundery rain, with worst affected spots likely to be in central and northern parts.

 “Some places could see around 100mm (3.9in).

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/331299/It-will-rain-til-September



Offline Derek

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 533
  • Karma: 119
  • Gender: Male
    • Waitakeres Weather
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2012, 09:30:54 AM »
Seems a rather unfortunate, but apt name to have in the current situation...

That's a fairly bleak outlook they are predicting over there...
Derek
Davis Vantage Pro2 / Cumulus 1.9.4 / WXSIM
web: Waitakeres weather
twitter: @Waitakeres

Offline Weather Display

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 517
  • Karma: 77
  • Gender: Male
    • Weather Display
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2012, 11:21:00 AM »
is not a bit premature to be talking about July as if it has already happened when its only 1 week
and then to make a long range prediction about all of august?

as there has been other premature predictions put foward (e.g about being the coldest on record) that did not come to pass, either

Brian
Awhitu, SW of Auckland

Offline Rwood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1331
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 244
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2012, 11:55:30 AM »

I agree. Premature.

Offline Mark

  • Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4399
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 687
  • Gender: Male
    • Bishopdale Weather
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2012, 02:52:31 PM »
The Met Office said the washout will continue into August. A spokesman said: “A protracted spell of hot, sunny weather looks very unlikely.”

Forecasters MeteoGroup last night described this summer as “the worst since records began”. Forecaster Paul Knightley said: “This is as bad a summer as we can get in this country.

“It’s wet, cool and dull. It’s not wrong to suggest the first half of summer has been the worst since records began.”

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: “There is no settled fine weather on the horizon and August looks as doomed as July. It is a bitterly disappointing summer and already set to be in the top five wettest on record.

It is abit Premature buts that what they say.

Same link as above
« Last Edit: July 08, 2012, 02:57:03 PM by mark »

Offline Rwood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1331
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 244
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2012, 02:57:41 PM »
My comment stands. It's a prediction of sorts, and there should be some sort of probability attached to it, as for all sound seasonal forecasting. As it stands, it sounds too unequivocal and risks being ridiculed later if it is seriously wrong.

Meteogroup's comment is downright daft, as the summer is not even half over yet.

Offline RobertHH

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 79
  • Karma: 61
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2012, 10:05:59 PM »
Our summer is May, June, July, August and is a lot more than half over. Long term predictions of more than four weeks are always subject to the possibility of change, and in terms of local weather it is unlikely to be correct for more than a couple of days, but the general trend is non the less predictable for the country as a whole. Locally, we have not had a 24 hour period without rain for three months and many areas have suffered a similar level of the wet stuff. We have been lucky compared to a lot of areas in terms of the rainfall per hour, and our systems have coped without substantial flooding, but within a few miles of my location, that has not been the case and they have been flooded several times in an area which is NOT subject to regular flooding, and NOT located near a river. The ground in many areas, including my area, is not getting the chance to dry and crops are going rotten as a result.

It is NOT premature to declare this summer as the worst on record or a disaster.
Lichfield, Staffordshire. UK

Offline OhauitiWeather

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1977
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 284
  • Gender: Male
    • Ohauiti Weather
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2012, 12:11:02 AM »
This thread brings to mind a popular 1960's song by Helen Shapiro - It Might As Well Rain Until September (1966).


Helen Shapiro - It Might As Well Rain Until September (1966)_HQ
David Harris
Ohauiti Weather
WH1091 Wireless Weather Station
Ohauiti Weather :: Home  powered by Cumulus MX 3.0.0 b3041
"If it wasn't for the last minute nothing would ever get done"

Offline Rwood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1331
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 244
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2012, 10:03:10 AM »

It is premature. And the claim made that any local station could have had about 90 consecutive days with at least some precipitation is not credible, merely just the kind of thing that fuels urban legends.

Neither you nor the seasonal forecasters know whether the current jetstream setup will last to the end of August - all that can be stated are probabilities, and very roughly at that.

The climatology for a period is determined my measuring all the datas, not a mixture of data and forecasts!

Offline TokWW

  • Grim
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1579
  • Country: 00
  • Karma: 196
  • Gender: Male
  • Another Engineer
    • Tokoroa North Weather
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2012, 06:50:07 PM »
Robert, are you close to Macclesfield or further east by the hills?  There is a weather station by Oxford Rd, a bit to the west which has weather data we can look at - All Hallows Catholic College.  Is this location less likely to see the rain you are discussing?  Because they have recorded several days in June free of rain - 11 in fact for June.  We need to be talking facts and not feelings here, thanks.

Offline Rwood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1331
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 244
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2012, 06:56:26 PM »

Indeed. Only extremely rainy/wet climates would ever get a run remotely approaching 90 days. Seattle in the US has not exceeded about 36. Even if you considered the notorious Ballynahinch in Ireland, which once had 309 precip days (0.01" or more) in a year, you'd probably struggle to get such a run.

Offline RobertHH

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 79
  • Karma: 61
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2012, 11:55:13 PM »
Not only have we already had such a run, we continue to have a situation where there has not been a 24 hour period without some precipitation. We are located between Lichfield, Burton -On-Trent and Rugeley at the end of the Cheshire valley. Our location is not normally problematic in terms of rainfall, but can be in terms of snow fall in winter: this year however, it has proven to be the not hot spot, and the site of extensive rainfall although not the heaviest rainfall, and I take exception to anyone interpreting statistics, which are totally irrelevant, and pronouncing an on site report to be other than completely valid.

Just as a matter of interest, our weather forecast until July 20th is for some rain every day.

I will obviously check to ensure that it is not a neighbour being over zealous with a hosepipe.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2012, 12:29:15 AM by RobertHH »

Offline Rwood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1331
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 244
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2012, 09:40:18 AM »
You are free to take exception, but the fact of the matter is that you have no objective proof, and in a moderate rainfall regime like yours such numbers (90 consecutive precip. days) do not occur, and have never occurred. I have been hearing dramatic weather claims since I was about 9 - and about 99.99% of them prove to be false or grossly exaggerated. Giving extra credence to any of them only leaves the general populace even more confused than it already is.

Get yourself a decent weather station, set up properly, and start getting some actual data. Then there could a basis for factual assessments. Until then, what amounts to a kind of claim to a totally anomalous record can't be considered reasonable.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2012, 09:42:26 AM by Rwood »

Offline David

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1403
  • Karma: 299
  • Gender: Male
    • Howick Weather Station
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2012, 08:19:06 PM »
Do you keep daily records Robert? It would be quite amazing if you did get that many consecutive days with precip recorded. Without records though it would be easy to forget one dry day in a myriad of wet ones. It just seems a little hard to believe 90 days with rainfall in the absence of real weather records...

Offline Rwood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1331
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 244
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2012, 08:55:32 PM »

If you examined UK records, it's not very likely  that even the really wet zones would have logged such an occurrence, though it's not inconceivable. But in a lower rainfall regime, there would be no chance at all.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2012, 09:02:15 PM by Rwood »

Offline Mark

  • Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4399
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 687
  • Gender: Male
    • Bishopdale Weather
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2012, 08:57:22 PM »
Remember to all to keep you post Civil to all.

Offline Rwood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1331
  • Country: nz
  • Karma: 244
  • Gender: Male
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2012, 09:25:33 PM »
This story could could give a more reasonable handle on things - a very rainy location managed 40 days, the worst run in the UK since 1861. 90 in a drier place is well out of the ballpark.

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2603137/Island-hamlet-suffers-40-consecutive-days-of-rain.html

Offline beteljuice

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 172
  • Country: 00
  • Karma: 41
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2012, 09:29:29 PM »
My location is Wet Midlands (Sorry - West Midlands) UK.

It certainly feels like we have had the proverbial 40 days and 40 nights, but the beteljuice is certain in his own mind that it is currently about 30 wet days for his locale. Although 'sharing' in the 'national' deluges, this area has been prone to erratic bands of rain as the sysyem passes from one end of the country to another. (Yesterday 4 distinct rain events).

I have mentioned elsewhere concerns by farmers, environmentalists, etc. etc.
In the 'drier' south - did you see a day at Wimbledon when the covers didn't close ?

Even the gardening programs, which are usually shot over three days, are showing all the rain and muddy / washed out conditions - and the only healthy flowering plants they've got are the ones just delivered from poly tunnels (If those are still standing in certain areas).

... and finally to state the obvious : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18793045
« Last Edit: July 13, 2012, 03:18:52 AM by beteljuice »
Imagine what you will KNOW tomorrow

Offline gabba

  • Financial Supporter
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2153
  • Country: 00
  • Karma: 213
  • Gender: Male
    • Hutt Weather
  • Station: Vantage Vue, Weather Display, Webcam.
Re: Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2012, 09:50:28 PM »

Plus 1 to that. Please keep discussion focussed on the topic. If you are unsure about your responsibilities as members of the forum please refer to the membership section and the site terms and conditions.

Sent from my Ideos using Tapatalk 2
Cheers, Andrew

Vantage Vue, Weather Display, Webcam.
www.huttweather.co.nz

Maungaraki, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

Offline TokWW

  • Grim
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1579
  • Country: 00
  • Karma: 196
  • Gender: Male
  • Another Engineer
    • Tokoroa North Weather
Re: (UK)IT WILL RAIN 'TIL SEPTEMBER
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2012, 11:10:31 PM »
Robert, I have found five personal weather stations within or just outside your region which you describe as a triangle with 20-25km sides.

Of those, the all agree July so far has been wet.  One station has 8 days of rain out of 10, while the other 4 all agree on 10 days of rain so far.  The one with the highest total July rain to date is Baswich, 10kms to the NW of the NW corner of the triangle (Rugeley).  It has had 73.4mm with the highest daily rain on 6th July of 34.8mm.  The other 4 stations all agree with 6th July as being the heaviest rainfall in last 3 months.  Other stations are:  Lichfield, Highlands, Burton Upon Trent and Newhall.

Of all these stations, they nearly all report 25th, 26th and 27th of June as being "dry", although Newhall saw 1.0mm on the 26th and Highfields recorded 0.3mm on the 27th.  All stations had 0.3mm (1/100th") as the minimum rainfall recordable (very common).  They all had at least 7 days of no rain for June.

I agree, for the middle of summer, you are having a wretched time especially in July so far.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2012, 07:31:03 AM by TokWW »


Share via twitter

xx
Heavy Rain Forecast 31st August - 1st September 2015

Started by NZLW

0 Replies
2390 Views
Last post August 31, 2015, 02:10:40 PM
by NZLW
xx
West Coast rain gauge can't deal with heavy rain

Started by Wolfie33

0 Replies
2951 Views
Last post May 13, 2015, 07:13:25 PM
by Wolfie33
xx
Isolated bursts of heavy rain could prompt rain warnings

Started by Te Puke Weather

0 Replies
2977 Views
Last post May 07, 2012, 04:49:14 PM
by Te Puke Weather
xx
Torrential rain kills at least 28 in Japan, more heavy rain coming

Started by OhauitiWeather

0 Replies
3070 Views
Last post July 18, 2012, 08:45:56 PM
by OhauitiWeather
xx
Rain causes problems in BOP

Started by Wolfie33

1 Replies
2115 Views
Last post April 03, 2016, 11:12:25 AM
by Wolfie33