Forecast models are currently assigning roughly equal probability to a very strong, strong, moderate, or weak-to-neutral El Niño

El Niño is one of the most observed systems on the planet. Ocean heat content, surface temperatures, trade winds, atmospheric response, all measured continuously.

Even so, the models are struggling to separate outcomes.

If they cannot resolve the strength of the next cycle, that limitation carries forward.

As Javier Vinós points out, “Models can’t be trusted. Anything we don’t know is not included, and many things we do know are incorrectly included. Only a fool would trust a model that hasn’t been properly validated.”
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/el-nino-coin-toss-africans-dont-care

‘super’ El Niño, however, this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology.

This year’s Australian snow season could be influenced by a very strong El Niño, increasing the likelihood of below-average snow in the Australian Alps.

The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are in place. However, an El Niño pattern is emerging, and forecast models predict that El Niño will become established this winter and may last through the second half of the year.

Some forecast models, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S2 model, predict that the impending El Niño will become very strong, meaning sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean will reach more than 2°C above the long-term average. Some forecasters and researchers refer to a very strong El Niño as a ‘super’ El Niño, however this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/how-do-super-el-nino-events-affect-the-australian-snow-season/1891355?fbclid=IwY2xjawR1sF9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeN-spt2FJ10G1paFARXm7Zzw1uOsLnhfqRcINfqqVX29XGH1c4cwvzDslGWw_aem_ot6lrMOI0PasgANX8cFh5w