Forecast models are currently assigning roughly equal probability to a very strong, strong, moderate, or weak-to-neutral El Niño

El Niño is one of the most observed systems on the planet. Ocean heat content, surface temperatures, trade winds, atmospheric response, all measured continuously.

Even so, the models are struggling to separate outcomes.

If they cannot resolve the strength of the next cycle, that limitation carries forward.

As Javier Vinós points out, “Models can’t be trusted. Anything we don’t know is not included, and many things we do know are incorrectly included. Only a fool would trust a model that hasn’t been properly validated.”
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/el-nino-coin-toss-africans-dont-care

‘super’ El Niño, however, this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology.

This year’s Australian snow season could be influenced by a very strong El Niño, increasing the likelihood of below-average snow in the Australian Alps.

The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are in place. However, an El Niño pattern is emerging, and forecast models predict that El Niño will become established this winter and may last through the second half of the year.

Some forecast models, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S2 model, predict that the impending El Niño will become very strong, meaning sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean will reach more than 2°C above the long-term average. Some forecasters and researchers refer to a very strong El Niño as a ‘super’ El Niño, however this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/how-do-super-el-nino-events-affect-the-australian-snow-season/1891355?fbclid=IwY2xjawR1sF9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeN-spt2FJ10G1paFARXm7Zzw1uOsLnhfqRcINfqqVX29XGH1c4cwvzDslGWw_aem_ot6lrMOI0PasgANX8cFh5w

Ocean Temperatures and the Developing El Niño Event

As ocean temperatures continue to warm through early 2026 across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, climate forecasters are calling this the start of what may be one of the strongest El Niño events in recent decades. The following will examine two previous "very strong" El Niño events and some of the similarities with the currently developing El Niño event over the Pacific Ocean.

What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and an El Niño Event?

ENSO is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that describes the variation in surface winds and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean. There is a well-established connection between heat energy stored in the ocean and wind stresses in the lower atmosphere.

The ENSO cycle has three phases:

    Neutral
    La Niña
    El Niño


In a Neutral ENSO phase, near normal SSTs see cool waters over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (and along the northwest coast of South America) and warmer waters over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (north and northeast of Australia) drive trade winds from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Rising, moist air north of Australia leads to seasonal high rainfall, whereas descending air over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean results in drier conditions.


Image: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral Phase.  Source: Bureau of Meteorology

During a La Niña, decreased SSTs across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, combined with increased SSTs over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, result in stronger trade winds blowing from the east across the tropical region. This leads to increased rainfall over the western Pacific and, in many cases, the northern and eastern regions of Australia during the spring and summer seasons.

 


Image: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Nina Phase.  Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The El Nino phase. During this phase, warmer ocean waters — both at the surface and at depth — accumulate over the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, while SSTs over the western tropical Pacific are relatively cooler than normal. Easterly trade winds weaken and, in strong El Niño events, can reverse direction, blowing from the west across the western tropical region. Heavier monsoon rainfall, which normally occurs over the western tropics, is suppressed by cooler SSTs and a broad region of background descending air. In contrast, warm, moist air rising over the central and eastern tropical Pacific brings enhanced rainfall and potentially heavy precipitation extending as far east as the west coast of South America.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/a-comparison-of-past-strong-el-nino-events-with-the-strengthening-el-nino-event-of-2026/1891471