Big aftershock odds lower
Last updated 05:00 04/04/2012


Figures updated on Monday show that in the next 12 months the probability of a magnitude five to 5.4 earthquake in the Canterbury aftershock zone has fallen from 79 per cent to 77 per cent.

There is a 34 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 quake, down from 36 per cent a month ago, and an 11 per cent probability of a magnitude six to 6.4 aftershock, down from 12 per cent.

The chances of much larger quakes remain the same, with a 3 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9 quake in the next year.
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