Author Topic: This Week's Weather Forecasting 2nd - 5th April 2012 (Read 4740 times)

JennyLeez · « **on:** March 28, 2012, 05:49:41 PM »

Tropical storm likely over NZ waters next week (+ Maps)
Computer models are now in agreement that a tropical low will form this weekend about 2000kms north of New Zealand - then it will track towards the North Island, possibly strengthening into a severe tropical cyclone. However the models still remain unsure about the exact path it will take.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the European models, which accurately predicted every one of the tropical cyclones last year, has been predicting since Sunday that this low will make a direct hit over northern New Zealand next week. "The problem with highly reliable models is that occasionally they do get it wrong - so rather than putting all our eggs into one basket, we monitor all the various computer models and so far they are still at odds over the exact path".

More from Weatherwatch.co.nz plus maps.

JennyLeez · « **Reply #1 on:** April 01, 2012, 10:11:24 PM »

An update on this week:

Winds will start to pick up on Monday for everyone in Auckland and areas to the north. A few showers may move into the far northern tip of Northland during the night.

On Tuesday, rain and wind will move south, overspreading the North Island. Heavy falls are possible, especially about Northland in the morning, Auckland in the afternoon and Gisborne and Hawkes Bay in the evening. Also on Tuesday, east winds will strengthen as they spread across the North Island. Gale force winds are possible.

Tuesday is also when the dangerous swells are expected to arrive. Earlier today, we reported that Brett Beamsley, Oceanographer at MetOcean Solutions (Weathermap.co.nz) believes that the forecast models are still offering moderate chances of significant swells and rips.

Four metre swells are possible from late Tuesday and lasting throughout Wednesday and Thursday over north east facing beaches across the upper north Mr Beamsley says.

On Wednesday, the rain will clear Northland and Auckland in the morning. Waikato and Taranaki could see some clearing by evening. But despite the rain ending, the gusty winds will continues. Gusty winds are also expected for the eastern parts of the North Island where the rain is expected to continue. The upper regions of the South Island should also get in on the rain and wind on Wednesday.

The gusty winds will hang on right into the weekend. Rain chances will back off a bit on Thursday and Friday when just the far eastern regions of the North Island could get wet, as well as the upper South Island.

Precipitation could become more wide spread for Saturday and Easter Sunday. The southern half of the South Island is about the only place in New Zealand that looks to be dry next weekend.

Weatherwatch

JennyLeez · « **Reply #2 on:** April 02, 2012, 01:51:59 PM »

Issued by MetService 10:28am Monday 2 Apr 2012
Wednesday
North Island, periods of rain over northern and eastern areas, scattered rain elsewhere. Some heavy falls likely in the east.Southeast gales in exposed places. South Island, some rain in the northeast, mostly cloudy along the east coast. Mainly fine in the south and west.
Thursday
North Island, rain or showers in the north and east. Some heavy falls likely in the east. Southeast gales in exposed places. South Island, some rain in the northeast, cloudy along the east coast, mainly fine elsewhere.
Friday
North Island, rain or showers over the North Island and over the northern half of the South Island. Mainly fine over southern New Zealand.

JennyLeez · « **Reply #3 on:** April 02, 2012, 08:29:11 PM »

I just dont believe this. We have had our fair share of rain this year already.
56 rain days out of 90. You do the maths.

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 7:44pm 02-Apr-2012
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN: Gisborne

HEAVY RAIN FOR GISBORNE
A low of tropical origin is moving southeastwards, bringing strong,
moist southeasterlies to northern and central New Zealand, and a
Watch for heavy rain and severe gale southeasterlies is in force for
several North Island areas. In Gisborne, rain is expected to become
heavy during Tuesday, and the rain is expected to only ease slowly
towards the weekend. However, there is still significant uncertainty
regarding the exact track and depth is this low, and it is strongly
advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings.

JennyLeez · « **Reply #4 on:** April 03, 2012, 09:15:50 PM »

Latest:
ISSUED BY MetService AT 7:57pm 03-Apr-2012
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN: Gisborne, Hawkes Bay

HEAVY RAIN FOR GISBORNE AND HAWKES BAY
A low of tropical origin is slow moving just northeast of the North
Island. Its associated rainband lies over the North Island, with
strong, moist southeasterlies. In Gisborne and Hawkes Bay heavy rain
is expected to continue into Thursday. Around 160mm is possible in
Gisborne and 140mm in Hawkes Bay. People in these areas are advised
to watch out for flooded streams and rivers, slips and hazardous
driving conditions.

JennyLeez · « **Reply #5 on:** April 04, 2012, 10:10:57 PM »

Update 4th April 8.00pm:

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

Gisborne

The heavy rain is expected to continue until Thursday morning. In the 16 hours from 8pm Wednesday until midday Thursday, a further 60 to 100mm of rain is likely, with intensities reaching around 10mm per hour. Although the rain eases Thursday afternoon, it is possible that another 50 to 70mm could fall late Thursday and early Friday.

Hawkes Bay

Heavy rain in the ranges is expected to continue until tomorrow morning. In the 16 hours from 8pm Wednesday until midday Thursday, a further 60 to 100mm of rain is likely in the hills and ranges north of Napier City, with up to 50mm elsewhere. Intensities reaching around 10mm per hour about the ranges. Although the rain should ease Thursday afternoon, it is possible that a further 50 to 70mm could fall in the hills and ranges north of Napier City late Thursday and early Friday.