Tropical Cyclone Winston is on course to hit Fiji today, after battering Tonga yesterday.
Gusts of 315km/h are estimated at its centre, with winds of more than 220km/h expected to ravage the island nation today, as the category 5 cyclone moves west from Tonga towards Fiji's Lau Islands this morning.
"The Fiji Met Service says the cyclone is expected to maintain Category 5 intensity as it tracks west, directly over the centre of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu, population 650,000," the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) said.
"The current path would take the cyclone just north of Suva, population 100,000, overnight on Saturday/Sunday, reaching Nadi, population 52,000, during the day on Sunday."
Tropical Cyclone Winston is forecast to impact all Fijian island groups over the weekend, the agency said, potentially bringing destructive winds, heavy rains, dangerous storm surge and a high risk of both flash and river flooding.
The Fiji Meteorological Service classed the tropical cyclone as "severe", and said Winston was expected to intensify as it moved west.
The system could be about 140 kilometres off Suva by the end of the day, the met service said. A damaging heavy swell warning is in force for low lying coastal areas, and a heavy rain warning is also in place.
Tropical Cyclone Winston was located around 120km north of Lakeba, or 320km east-northeast of Suva at 5am today, it said.
It's moving west at around 25km/h, and at its centre the cyclone is estimated to have winds of 220km/h and gusts of 315km/h.
"On this track, the cyclone is expected to be located about 200km northwest of Lakeba, or about 170km northeast of Suva, at 5pm today," the Fiji Met Service said.
"Destructive winds may begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby."
Vanuabalavu, Yacata, Mago, Cicia, Tuvuca, Naya, Koro, Gau, Vanuavatu, Taveuni, Qamea, Laucala, Ovalau, Wakaya, and the southern half of Vanua Levu have been told to expect "very destructive hurricane force winds, with average speeds of 220km/h and momentary gusts of 315km/h", as well as periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms, damaging sea swells and flooding.
Lakeba, Oneata, Moce, Komo, Namuka, Ogea, Moala, the rest of Vanua Levu and nearby smaller islands, Vitu Levu, Yasawa and Mamanuca group have been told to expect destructive storm force winds, with average speeds of 110km/h and gusts of up to 155km/h, periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. There is also a risk of damaging heavy sea swells and flooding in low lying areas.
Cyclone Winston has already caused damage in Tonga, where it passed the Vava'u group of islands.
The owner of Treasure Island Eco Resort says a handful of bungalows have been lost, and trees are down.
In the town area power lines are down and some buildings are badly damaged.
Fiji's National and Divisional Emergency Operations Centres have been activated and the UNOCHA regional office for the Pacific has offered Pacific Humanitarian Team support to the Fiji National Disaster Management Office if required.
- NZ Herald
and from weatherwatch.co.nz:
There is little change to our forecast for New Zealand - we still expect Winston to return south west towards New Zealand next week. Winston may get quite close to the North Island, but so far most models do not pick a direct hit. Models that don't favour a near a miss to New Zealand show Winston falling apart north east of the North Island well in advance. Dangerous beach conditions, however, may still move in next week to the north east.
So, it remains something to monitor daily - but poses no direct threat to New Zealand.
However Winston - still Category 4 - is now tracking towards south eastern Fiji. Suva is within the cone of uncertainty - the area where the centre of the cyclone may travel.
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April 18, 2017, 04:31:22 AM
