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Author Topic: Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 6th March  (Read 7600 times)

Offline NZLW

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Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 6th March
« on: March 04, 2015, 12:25:06 AM »
The pattern looks set to change during the next few days, with weather systems expected to become more mobile and strong winds likely in many places.

A front is expected to move onto Fiordland late Thursday or early Friday, and should rapidly cross the country. A deep low should approach Fiordland later Friday, with an associated trough moving across New Zealand on Saturday. A new low is expected to develop east of the South Island later Saturday, then should move away to the east on Sunday.

Periods of heavy rain are expected in the west of the South Island, starting late Thursday or early Friday in Fiordland, with a moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain there. As the rain spreads north, the confidence of warning criteria being exceeded increases to high in Westland, and significant spillover is also possible for the Canterbury and Otago lakes and rivers. There is also a moderate confidence of heavy rain on Friday and Saturday in Buller and Nelson (especially the ranges) and also about the Tararua Range.

For the North Island, heavy rain is also possible from Taranaki across to the central high country and also the eastern Bay of Plenty ranges, starting on Friday about Mt Taranaki and then spreading eastwards, with a moderate confidence of accumulations reaching warning criteria.

In addition, there is a low confidence of severe northwest gales about Wellington, southern Wairarapa, Marlborough and inland Canterbury during Friday and early Saturday. Later Saturday, a strong southerly may develop about the Kaikoura Coast, and there is also a low confidence this also becoming severe.

Further north, there is a low confidence of severe northwest gales for at time on Saturday for the central North Island, from Waikato to Taranaki and across to northern Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.






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Offline JennyLeez

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UPDATE: Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 6th March
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2015, 10:18:39 AM »
ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:31am 05-Mar-2015
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN: Nelson, Buller, Canterbury, Taranaki

BURST OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ABOUT WESTLAND AND THE ALPS, NORTHWEST
NELSON RANGES, AND MOUNT TARANAKI ON FRIDAY
An active front, preceded by a strong moist northerly flow, is
expected to pass east over the South Island during Friday morning,
then the North Island in the afternoon and early evening. A period of
heavy rain is expected with this front, especially about Westland and
the Alps, where hourly rainfalls could reach 25 to 40mm/hr for a time
in thunderstorms. Rainfall accumulations could approach 180mm about
the Westland Ranges and Alps in a 9 to 12 hour period, with 100mm
expected about remaining parts of Westland, including the Paparoa
Range, Canterbury Headwaters, northwest Nelson Ranges and Mt
Taranaki.
This is a significant amount of rain over a short period of time;
streams and rivers could rise very rapidly, with surface flooding and
hazardous driving conditions.

Living in Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay
Website: wairoa.net/weather

Offline Martin4Jay

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Re: Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 6th March
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2015, 11:04:18 AM »
My wish for you to be safe 8)
Taunton Narols Farm


They call me the secret squirrel

Offline JennyLeez

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Re: Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 6th March
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2015, 11:34:46 AM »
Dont think we will need those sun glasses martin...lol

Offline Martin4Jay

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Re: Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 6th March
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2015, 11:36:02 AM »
Thats very true 8)
But you were hoping for some rain though

Offline Valerie

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Re: Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 6th March
« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2015, 01:00:30 PM »
Looks impressive but I bet you a dollar it misses Hawkes Bay.
Whangarei. Northland.

Offline JennyLeez

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UPDATE: Severe Weather Outlook - Friday into the Weekend 7th March
« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2015, 01:54:57 PM »
Models updated.

Valerie could be correct unfortunately. Look for the white patches  :(



Offline JennyLeez

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Severe Weather Warnings - Saturday 7th March
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2015, 11:38:45 PM »
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:55 pm 06-Mar-2015
BURST OF HEAVY RAIN FOR WESTLAND, BULLER and the NORTHWEST NELSON RANGES Saturday, also SIGNIFICANT RAIN ABOUT EASTERN OTAGO AND Northerly gales for Wellington.

An active front, associated with a deep low, is expected to pass east over the country on Saturday bringing a burst of heavy rain and thunderstorms to many western places, especially about central areas. Warning amounts of rain are expected about Westland south of Otira during Saturday morning, then about Buller and the northwest Nelson Ranges, where 80 to 120mm is expected to accumulate.

In addition, steady rain is expected about Dunedin and Clutha during Saturday afternoon and evening, is likely to bring significant accumulations to the area, with 40 to 60mm expected in 12 hours.

Northerly gales with the low and front are likely to be severe at times about Wellington during Saturday, with gusts of 120km/h in exposed places. Winds of this strength have the potential to bring down trees, powerlines and make driving hazardous for motorcycles and high-sided vehicles.


Offline JennyLeez

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Weather Outlook - Heading into Sunday 8th March 2015
« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2015, 11:09:47 AM »
The Map models looking much the same.
Personally I am not impressed. Look at the Upper East Coast  >:(



Possibility of severe gales about...

TARANAKI, WANGANUI, MANAWATU and the KAPITI COAST West to northwest gales are likely in exposed places from this afternoon until early Sunday morning, and may reach severe gale at times.

CENTRAL HAWKES BAY West to northwest gales are likely in exposed places from this evening until mid-morning Sunday, and may reach severe gale at times.

WAIRARAPA West to northwest gales are likely in exposed places from this afternoon until early Sunday morning, and may reach severe gale at times.

MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS Northwest gales may reach severe gale at times until this evening.

Possibility for heavy rain about...

CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND HIGH COUNTRY and the TARARUA RANGE Rain is expected to become heavy this afternoon, then ease tonight. Accumulations may approach warning criteria during this time (e.g. 70mm in 12 hours).

MOUNT TARANAKI A burst of heavy rain is expected this afternoon, and accumulations may approach warning criteria (e.g. 50mm in 6 hours).

WESTLAND north of Otira Heavy rain is expected to ease this afternoon. Accumulations may approach warning criteria during this time (e.g. 60mm in 9 hours).

NORTH OTAGO and SOUTHLAND Easterly rain is expected to develop this afternoon, then ease early Sunday morning. Accumulations may approach warning criteria (e.g. 40 to 50mm in 12 hours).


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