The Weekend Forecast 19th - 20th July 2014

[JennyLeez]

Issued: 3:20pm Thursday 17 Jul 2014
Valid from Saturday 19 July 2014 to Tuesday 22 July 2014

A low pressure system is expected to move across the upper North Island during Saturday and Sunday, bringing a period of heavy rain with strong or gale northeast winds which should change through east to southeast with the passage of the low. For Northland there is high confidence that rain will be heavy enough during Saturday to warrant the issuance of a rain warning. Additionally, there is a moderate probability for warning amounts of heavy rain in Coromandel Peninsula from Saturday into Sunday, while for Auckland the probability is low for the same period. There is also low confidence for significant amounts of heavy rain in areas of the Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay during Sunday.

For the South Island on Saturday, a moist southeast flow is likely to affect eastern areas, with rain falling as snow above 400 metres, and bringing a low to moderate probability of heavy snow to areas of Canterbury and Otago, especially about the eastern ranges and foothills.

Late Sunday a very cold southerly flow moves onto the lower South Island, which then spreads over the South Island during Monday, reaching the North Island on Tuesday. The southerlies are likely to be gale about southern and eastern areas and will feel bitterly cold. Snow to low levels are also expected in the South Island, and snow accumualtions could be large enough to require a warning in areas of southern Fiordland, Southland, Otago, Banks Peninsula, North Canterbury and the ranges of eastern Marlborough, as indicated on the chart.


Metservice.com




Weatherzone.co.nz

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[JennyLeez]

{WATCH Event 2014/1.317}
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, GISBORNE,
HAWKES BAY, OTAGO
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 2052hrs 19-Jul-2014

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GALES FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF AUCKLAND AND
COROMANDEL, INCLUDING GREAT BARRIER ISLAND UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW FOR EASTERN OTAGO EASING SUNDAY MORNING.  SIGNIFICANT RAIN
POSSIBLE ABOUT THE HILLS AND RANGES OF HAWKES BAY AND GISBORNE ON
SUNDAY.

A low and associated fronts over Northland, currently bringing rain
and gales to northern New Zealand, should move away to the east
Sunday morning. A HEAVY RAIN WARNING remains in place for Northland.
This Watch is for the possibility of southeast gales becoming severe
about northern parts of Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula, including
Great Barrier Island from this evening through to mid-morning Sunday.
This Watch also covers the possibility of rainfalls in these areas
approaching short duration warning amounts (for example 50mm in 6
hours) during the same time.

A moist southerly flow over eastern Otago and South Canterbury
currently bringing outbreaks of rain, falling as snow above 400
metres, should ease Sunday morning.  This Watch is for Dunedin and
North Otago until mid-morning Sunday, where rainfall could approach
the lower warning thresholds for these districts (40mm in 12 hours).
Note, there is also a possibility of significant snowfalls over
higher inland parts of these areas during that time, mostly above 500
metres.

Finally, a moist southeast flow is forecast to develop over Hawkes
Bay and Gisborne Sunday morning bringing rain to these regions, with
some heavy falls possible about the hills and ranges through to early
Monday morning when the flow turns more southerly.  This Watch now
covers the possibility of significant rainfalls about the hills and
ranges of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne during this time, especially about
the Wairoa District.

People in these areas are advised to keep up to date with the latest
forecasts, in case further warnings become necessary.


(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2014

[Derek]

Last nights rainfall in Northland has caused yet more issues for the region - flooding, slips etc.  There are road closures while services try and clear things

Article from Herald here http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11296287

[Derek]

Another article from the Herald this afternoon - more problems with slips, particularly an underslip on the southern side of the Brynderwyn Hills on SH1.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11296398