Posted 25th November 2013

A low pressure system in the Tasman Sea is heading towards New Zealand and has already delivered torrential rain to parts of Queensland in recent days.

While Queensland is far more tropical than New Zealand this Tasman Sea low is tapping into a humid airflow over the Sunshine State and Coral Sea - meaning explosive tropical-like showers could form over the upper North Island across Tuesday PM, Wednesday and possibly Thursday says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says hopefully the pockets of severe weather will do more good than harm. "The north is now drier than average and with record breaking November heat at the weekend in Auckland any rain will be welcome".

But Mr Duncan warns that the incoming weather could be dangerous in pockets. "Whenever we have slow moving tropical fuelled showers we run the risk of localised flash and surface flooding, hail, severe thunderstorms and even a few funnel clouds which could lead to a small scale tornado or blast of damaging wind".

"Often it's a mix of calm drizzly low cloud, hot sunny spells and then torrential downpours for some areas. It will be a bit hit and miss but inland and northern parts of the North Island will be most exposed to this weather".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the rain clouds will bubble up in certain areas and it will be difficult to pinpoint exactly where in advance - as a slight breeze can blow development areas from one side of a region to the other before the main showers form.

Government forecaster MetService says a large chunk of the North Island has a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday - along with potentially damaging winds.

WeatherWatch.co.nz will have updates across the next few days on this low. It's likely to reach the Pacific coastline around Thursday, ushering in a cooler change for the start of December in a number of regions - for some, cooler may simply mean "back to average"

why does this thread have a thumbs down?
the rain will be very welcome

Probably cause the reporter did not like this idea at all:

 "Whenever we have slow moving tropical fuelled showers we run the risk of localised flash and surface flooding, hail, severe thunderstorms and even a few funnel clouds which could lead to a small scale tornado or blast of damaging wind".

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Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Heavy showers south of the Waikato and Bay Of Plenty ease to clear around midnight, generally dry overnight with light winds and the chance of some fog for inland areas. About Wairarapa and Wellington showers or rain continues with south to southeast winds. For the South Island expect patchy rain or drizzle north of Dunedin in the east, mainly dry in the west.

Auckland & Northland
Areas of cloud with clear spells, westerlies ease. Light winds overnight.
Tonight's Low: 17-18

Central North Island, Waikato & Bay Of Plenty
Showers, some heavy with thunderstorms easing this evening then clearing by midnight. Light winds and clear spells overnight, some fog possible by dawn about inland sheltered areas.
Tonight's Low: 14-16

Eastern North Island
Showers, some heavy with thunderstorms this evening then easing by midnight. Areas of rain persist about the Wairarapa overnight while further north expect long dry spells. East to southeast winds.
Tonight's Low: 15-16

Western North Island
Areas of rain ease this evening mostly clearing around midnight, the odd shower may continue to spread from the east overnight south of Wanganui. Southeasterly breezes. Areas of rain about Taranaki ease to the odd shower later, light winds tend easterly.
Tonight's Lows: 14-15

Wellington
Occasional rain becoming patchy overnight, brisk to strong south to southeast breezes.
Tonight's Low: 14

Nelson
Fairly cloudy with southeasterly breezes, chance of a shower now and then otherwise mainly dry overnight.
Tonight's Lows: 12-13

Marlborough
Cloudy with a drizzle patch or two, dry spells at times. East to southeast winds.
Tonight's Low: 11

Canterbury
Cloudy with patchy rain or drizzle, areas of precipitation more persistent about inland areas (i.e. the foothills). Rain about North Canterbury eases this evening . East to southeast breezes.
Tonight's Lows: 10-11

West Coast
Any showers clearing this evening, high cloud overnight with east to southeast breezes.
Tonight's Lows: 12-13

Coastal Otago
Fairly cloudy with easterly breezes, chance of some drizzle overnight.
Tonight's Lows: 8-9

Southland & Central Otago
Clear spells and areas of cloud, southeasterly breezes. Cloud more frequent about northeastern parts of Central Otago.
Tonight's Lows: 6-7