Autumn coming in with a roar

Posted by wwadmin on Tue, 28/02/2012 - 17:00
Filed in:National News
WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say March will see a big increase in rainmakers, wind and unsettled weather compared to February - with a band of heavy rain, strong winds and a colder southerly flow all moving up the country on March 1st.

By the weekend a low is expected to rapidly deepen across the North Island and then off the Gisborne coast, pushing in more strong winds and rain.

And despite a brief high arriving later this weekend and early next week, another front will again race up the country by the start of the second week - attached to a large low just south of Southland.  According to the models this low looks likely to linger for a number of days bringing strong westerlies to many parts of New Zealand, especially the south and east of both island and wetter weather to the west.

Another high is expected to calm things down again before yet another cold front blasts in from the west with a strong westerly flow behind it around the middle of March.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the month ahead is looking very Autumn-like.  "Definitely no signs of a late summer surge, instead we're seeing a dramatic shift to classic Autumn weather with one main rain band moving through each week followed by a short lived high".

Mr Duncan says with more wind and rain we can expect more turbulent temperatures.  "Some westerlies will push highs up in the east into the late 20s or even low 30s, followed by colder southerlies that could wipe 15 degrees off those temperatures in a small space of time".

WeatherWatch.co.nz - General March predictions:

Wettest - Western regions
Coldest - Southern regions of both islands
Driest - Eastern NZ
Hottest - Eastern and northern NZ

It can't really be assessed properly, as it is not talking about differences form normal, just absolutes. The western regions are normally wettest anyway, southern ones coolest and eastern ones driest, so it wasn't saying much at all. Predictions have to be in terms of anomalies to have meaning.

Also, the NIWA report is pretty generalised for March, if one doesn't live in Auckland, Wellington etc.
I want to know the figures for my nearby stations, then I can judge for myself, in terms of what Rupert is saying.

The NIWA report (full version from the bottom link) is fairly detailed - places not mentioned are generally near their averages. Full details, however, are from the climat stats. report which comes out about 3 weeks later (an extra link appears in the summary report when it is ready).