WeatherWatch.co.nz, FuseworksDecember 16, 2012, 2:01 pm

Updated 1:53pm Severe category four tropical cyclone Evan is starting to push into Fiji, roaring in from Samoa in the north east reports WeatherWatch.co.nz.

The cyclone is a category 4 storm and the Fiji Met Service says it may strengthen to the maximum Cat5 rating in the next 24 hours or so.

Evan can now be clearly seen as the bright orange blob on the WeatherWatch.co.nz satellite map (right hand side of our website).

In the past 24 hours meteorologists at the Fiji Met Service have updated the predicted track Evan will take and this now takes the centre of the cyclone (where the worst of the winds are) significantly further north of both Suva and much of Fiji. However WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says Fiji is still expected to get walloped by the storm over the next couple of days.

"Evan is a slow moving high-end tropical cyclone. The scale only goes up to five and Evan is four putting sustained winds at 185km/h with damaging gales stretching 185kms from the south of the centre in to Fiji's mainland" says Mr Duncan. "Gusts may end up climbing to 280km/h or greater around the centre of Evan. To put this all in to perspective that's stronger than the recent Hobsonville tornado but unlike the tornado this cyclone is covering a few hundred kilometres not a few hundred metres".

But with Evan further north of the main island this could reduce the amount of wind damage to more populated centres - however damage may still be catastrophic for others in the north and north west especially. "Some small low lying communities and resorts may suffer catastrophic damage and some small islands may be entirely submerged as the storm and storm surge roll by".

As of 1:45pm Evan still had no noticeable eye in the centre based on satellite maps. A clear eye may develop in the middle of Evan today as the system gets better organised and potentially strengthens further.

Mr Duncan says the centre of Evan looks likely to track closer to Nadi than Suva but torrential rain, which could lead to significant flooding and landslides, could affect all parts of the nation.

"Northern and north western parts of Fiji will be most impacted by the gales while the entire main island will be exposed to torrential rain which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says with Cyclone Evan tracking so closely to Fiji's main international airport in Nadi to expect a number of flight cancellations and delays in the coming days.

Massive seas are also expected as the storm churns by. Coastal flooding could be a significant issue for some areas. The NZ Herald is reporting eight fisherman are currently missing near Samoa since the cyclone passed there at the end of last week.

Evan and New Zealand - Updated 1:45pm Sunday

Computer guidance this past week has been flip flopping about Evan's future path after Fiji - however more models are agreeing that there is now a higher probability that Evan - or the remnants of Evan - will reach northern New Zealand next weekend.

"This is one for people in the North Island of New Zealand to watch closely as it may impact some travel and holiday plans in the lead up to Christmas" says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

"We're not expecting Evan to be a cyclone if it does reach New Zealand next weekend, but it may still bring damaging gales and torrential tropical rains. At the very least it's one to monitor".

WeatherWatch.co.nz says at this stage it's unlikely Evan will have any significant impacts on international air travel to and from Auckland International Airport.

Mr Duncan says the risk of Evan hitting New Zealand has steadily increased over the past week. "A week ago WeatherWatch.co.nz first talked about Evan and we said there was a 20% chance of it hitting us directly. Now we place that threat at 40% and if the models continue as they are on Monday the our confidence levels will jump to 60%".

However the cyclone will be weakening, as they do when they leave the tropics and move over cooler waters and less favourable conditions to stay powered up as it heads towards the upper North Island.

The last significant ex-cyclone to hit New Zealand was Cyclone Wilma in January 2011 bringing slips, flooding and wind damage to parts of Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula. The storm was fast moving and lasted only about 12 to 18 hours. Current models - which may change in the coming days - predict at this early stage that Evan may linger for two or three days around the North Island.

Mr Duncan says a more concrete prediction on Evan's future path should evolve over the next two days as the storm starts to clear Fiji and back out into the open waters.

"People shouldn't panic as we're not going to see a Category 4 cyclone hitting New Zealand, but as with any tropical low we should monitor it closely, especially with so many people about to hit the roads, parks, beaches and outdoors".

WeatherWatch.co.nz will have daily updates on Evan over the coming week.
- WeatherWatch.co.nz

December 16, 2012 – FIJI - Fijian authorities scrambled to evacuate tourists and residents in low-lying areas Sunday as a monster cyclone threatened the Pacific nation with “catastrophic damage” after causing devastation in Samoa. At least four people were killed when Cyclone Evan slammed into Samoa and the toll was expected to rise with a search launched for eight men missing on three fishing boats. Only one survivor has been found, said the New Zealand Rescue Co-ordination Centre, which is overseeing the search. After crossing Samoa, Evan intensified as it ploughed through the Pacific and forecasters said destructive winds could reach nearly 300 kilometers per hour (186 miles per hour) by the time it hits Fiji early Monday. Government officials fear it could be as devastating as Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993. Squally thunderstorms were expected to flood low-lying areas while coastal villages were at risk of sea flooding, authorities said. The international airport at Nadi was packed as 850 tourists were removed from luxury resorts on outlying islands, “The safety of the tourists was paramount,” said Fiji Tourism and Hotel Association managing director Dixon Seeto, but with most flights booked the holidaymakers had little chance of getting out before the storm. Fiji’s main airline Air Pacific either cancelled or rescheduled its Monday flights while other airlines said they were closely monitoring the situation. Philip Duncan, head analyst with the WeatherWatch.co.nz meteorological service, said Fiji faced the prospect of flash flooding and mudslides. “Gusts may end up climbing to 280 kilometers per hour or greater around the centre of Evan,” Duncan said. “Some small, low-lying communities and resorts may suffer catastrophic damage and some small islands may be entirely submerged as the storm and storm surge roll by.” More than 200 evacuation centers have been opened and Information Ministry permanent secretary Sharon Smith-Johns said people at risk should move. “People living in low-lying areas should consider moving to higher ground or evacuation centres,” she said. Fiji’s military leader Voreqe Bainimarama has warned the storm is an “impending disaster” and offers of international aid have already been received. Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said Canberra was offering financial assistance as well as expert personnel and supplies. The cyclone is expected to hit the northern part of Fiji early Monday with strong winds and heavy rain striking several hours earlier, said Nadi Weather Office duty forecaster Amit Singh. “The cyclone is not going to slow down. It is intensifying,” he said. Meanwhile, it could be some days before the full extent of the damage in Samoa is known because of the difficulty reaching outlying islands. About 4,500 people remain in emergency shelters after Evan destroyed houses and damaged electricity and fresh water supplies, Samoan officials said. Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele also warned of possible food shortages next year because crops were destroyed. –BI

http://www.businessinsider.com/tourists-flee-residents-prepare-as-monster-cyclone-bears-down-on-fiji-2012-12