Weekend Forecast 8th - 9th September 2012

[JennyLeez]

From the Metservice:
Short forecast for all New Zealand to Midnight Saturday 8 Sep 2012

Severe northwest gales and bursts of heavy rain are expected to affect a number of regions over the next few days.
Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty
Cloud increasing. A period of rain tomorrow afternoon, then showers.
Gisborne, Hawkes Bay
High cloud, but brief rain tomorrow afternoon or evening. Northwest gales in exposed places tomorrow.
Waikato and Taupo to Wellington, also Wairarapa
Periods of rain with heavy falls, especially about the ranges. Thunderstorms possible in the west tomorrow evening. Northwest gales in exposed places.
Northwest Nelson to Fiordland, including the Main Divide
Rain, becoming heavy and thundery overnight. Snow lowering to 500 metres in Fiordland tomorrow night.
The remainder of the South Island
Fine with high cloud, but scattered rain spreading from the west at times tomorrow. Northwest gales in exposed places.

Sunday
North Island, showers, some possibly heavy from Auckland to Manawatu and about the Central Plateau, but only a few showers in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. South Island, rain with heavy falls in the west, a few showers in the far south, fine or becoming fine elsewhere.



From Weather Watch:
Friday - 7.30am
Heavy rain has lessened a bit about the West Coast this morning.  The majority of rain, and the potential for heavy rain will be about places like Nelson, Taranaki and Wellington for the early part of today.  The focus for stronger winds will be about central New Zealand as well, although severe gales are still a threat about the deep south, Marlborough and Canterbury where government forecaster MetService has Strong Wind Warnings in effect for the first half of today.
As another front makes its way across the Tasman, strong winds and heavy rain are likely to become more widespread tomorrow.
Heavy rain and strong winds are possible about most of the country tomorrow and Sunday.  The greatest threat for heavy rain will be about the western South Island.  Strong winds, possibly reaching severe gale strength are likely about Wairarapa, Wellington, Marlborough and Canterbury.
Additional pockets of heavy rain may be found about the North Island.  On the western side, the main threat lies from Raglan to Taranaki and then over to Wellington.  There is a threat for severe gales in this area as well.  Heavy rain could also be found about the eastern Bay of Plenty and East Cape/Gisborne.

Friday - 11.50am
Gale force winds and blustery conditions from the westerly quarter will dominate New Zealand's weather this weekend predicts WeatherWatch.co.nz.
A strong, warm, spring weather pattern will bring blustery and sometimes dangerous winds to several regions.
Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says regions most exposed to the strong winds will be eastern and central areas.  "Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay will receive some big gusts, but so too will Auckland".
Mr Duncan says for the most part the winds will be below damaging thresholds but they are still dangerous. "The two biggest dangers with these gales will be falling branches and difficult driving conditions".
WeatherWatch.co.nz advises truck drivers especially to be aware of the blustery westerly winds, which could make towing large trailers difficult.  Those on bikes, motorcycles and high sided vehicles should also take extreme care.
"People, especially in cities, should be looking up to ensure they aren't standing under dangerous trees if the winds are blowing hard".
WeatherWatch.co.nz says the windy weather means it will be warm for some areas with main centres in the east expected to climb into the low to even mid 20s today and possibly again over the weekend.
As of 11am it was already over 22 degrees across parts of Canterbury and Otago.

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[OhauitiWeather]

This weekend will produce heavy rain, strong winds and a risk of thunderstorms. The strong winds are likely as one of our readers Michelle Morrison put it to be everywhere essentially through most of this weekend, right from Southland all the way up through to Northland. The likely places to get the strongest winds gusting to gale force will be the likes of Inland Canterbury and Marlborough, about the Southern Alps and the lower North Island in particular about Cook Strait. All winds coming from the west or northwest.



The heavy rain threat lies on the West Coast of the South Island and about the alps on Saturday and in the evening on Saturday as well for a time about western parts of the North Island. Up to 200mm could fall on the West Coast of the South Island during Saturday.

Thunderstorms will likely develop about the West Coast of the South Island later this evening in Fiordland and developing in other areas further north overnight, and will continue through much of Saturday easing on Sunday morning. On Sunday evening another band of thunderstorms moves in. The west coast of the North Island could well see some thundery activity move in on Saturday evening and accompanies the heavy rain threat mentioned above.

There are hints of some thundery weather developing on Sunday afternoon or evening about Canterbury however if it did happen it would most likely be quite coastal and isolated meaning many may not see anything even if it does happen.

Homepage image / 8th September midday rain map - weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-extremes-weekend

[Suezy]

An update from Weather Watch
Update on heavy rain threat

Posted by wwadmin on Sat, 08/09/2012 - 13:59
Filed in:NZ
Rain continues to make its way across the Tasman early this afternoon.  Central New Zealand is already experiencing some of that rain.  Pockets of heavy rain are also being reported, especially around Wellington.

As we head through this afternoon, heavy rain is likely to continue about the upper South Island and lower North Island.  Some thundery falls are also possible.

Heavy rain is possible late this afternoon and this evening about the western North Island from just north of Auckland, south through to Taranaki.  Thunderstorms are also possible.

More heavy rain will be likely about the western South Island tonight and the deep south tomorrow morning.

Government forecaster MetService has currently has the following warnings in effect:

North Island

Tararua Range- Bursts of heavy rain are expected during the weekend, with possible thunderstorms from late Saturday. In the 36 hours from 9am Saturday to 9pm Sunday, expect 200 to 300mm about the higher ranges and 100mm about lower western slopes.
Mt. Taranaki- Bursts of heavy rain are expected during the weekend, with possible thunderstorms from late Saturday. In the 36 hours from 9am Saturday to 9pm Sunday, expect 200 to 300mm about higher slopes and 100mm about lower north-western slopes.
The central North Island high country from inland Taranaki across to Mt. Ruapehu and up to southern Waikato including the headwaters of the Whanganui river- Bursts of heavy rain are expected during the weekend, with possible thunderstorms from late Saturday. In the 36 hours from 10am Saturday to 10pm Sunday, expect around 100mm about the hills and ranges and up to 200mm about the higher slopes of Mt Ruapehu.
South Island

Westland south of Otira- Bursts of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected through to Sunday morning. In the 21 hours from 9am Saturday to 6am Sunday, expect a further 80 to 100mm of rain about the ranges. Rates could reach of 10 to 20mm per hour today, especially in any thunderstorms.
The headwaters of the Otago lakes and rivers- Significant rain is likely untl tonight possibly accompanied by thunderstorms. In the 15 hours from 9am to midnight Saturday, expect another 50 to 80mm of rain about the Main Divide, with over 30mm within 20km east of the Divide.
The headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers- Bursts of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms are expected through to early Sunday morning. In the 21 hours from 9am Saturday to 6am Sunday, expect a further 80 to 100mm of rain about the Main Divide, with over 40mm within 20km east of the Divide.
Ranges of Northwest Nelson, Buller and Westland north of Otira- Bursts of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected through to Sunday, initially in a strong north to northwest flow, but turning west to northwest this evening. In the hours 24 hours from 9am Saturday to 9am Sunday, expect a further 100 to 120mm of rain about the ranges on top of what has already fall. Peak rates of 15 to 25mm per hour can be expected this morning, especially in any thunderstorms.
The Richmond Range and Marlborough Sounds, including the Rai Valley- In the 12 hours from 9am to 9pm Saturday, expect a further 50 to 80mm of rain on top of what has already fallen. Peak rates should be this morning and early afternoon, when they are likely to reach 10 to 20mm per hour for a time.
Homepage image/ Howard Joseph

By WeatherWatch.co.nz Analyst Howard Joseph

[Suezy]

The latest from Weather Watch on thunderstorm.
Thunder could rumble across the west tonight, tomorrow

Posted by wwadmin on Sun, 09/09/2012 - 17:00
Filed in:NZ
The atmosphere continues to destabilize as our spring storm moves in.  Heavy rain and strong winds are still likely in many areas tonight.  Thunderstorms will also be an issue.

The greatest threat for thunderstorms tonight will along the west side of the Mainland.  There is also a chance for thunderstorms on the North Island, from about Raglan to Taranaki to the Kapiti Coast and then south to Wellington.

Tomorrow, as a new piece of energy approaches from the south and that means Southland could see some thunderstorms pop up in the morning.  Thunderstorms will still be a threat for the western regions of the Mainland tomorrow morning as well.  The best chance for thunderstorms will be about the far northwestern South Island…as well as about Taranaki.  There will also be a threat for thunderstorms extending further inland across the Waikato.

By tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening, the entire southern half of the North Island will run the risk of seeing thunderstorms with the best chance being about Taranaki, the Kapiti Coast and Wellington.  The smallest risk will be about Gisborne and Hawkes bay.

On the South Island, most of the top and west will see a risk for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.  There is a small risk for thunderstorm for Canterbury tomorrow afternoon and evening, including Christchurch.  However, at this time it does not look like all the ingredients needed for thunderstorms will arrive at the same time.  So chances are indeed small.

It’s important to remember that with any thunderstorms that do develop, heavy rain and small hail are likely.  Waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are also possible.

Also, you can track thunderstorms with Lightning Tracker here on the WeatherWatch.co.nz website.

Homepage image/ Rachel Roberts

By WeatherWatch.co.nz Analyst Howard Joseph

[TokWW]

Thunderstorms heard around Tokoroa tonight, noticed on this lightning detector:

http://www.billahstweather.com/lightning/nexstorm.png

Perform a refresh every so often.  Shows lightning approaching from the west for the NI and SI.