Weekend Forecast 18th - 19th August 2012

[Te Puke Weather]

Issued by The MetService

Saturday
North Island, showers in western areas and fine in the east. South Island, rain or showers in the west, and fine elsewhere, apart from areas of morning low cloud or fog.

Sunday
North Island, showers in the west turning to rain later,high cloud thickening in the east and some rain possible. South Island, rain in the west, heavy at times, scattered rain spreading further east.

Chatham Islands
Rain on Friday, with strong northeasterlies easing. Winds turning light southerly on Saturday. Rain clearing early Sunday, southerlies dying out and northerlies developing.

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[JennyLeez]

Severe Weather Outlook from the Metservice
Valid from Friday 17 August 2012 to Monday 20 August 2012
A weak ridge of high pressure should lie over the country on Friday. From late Saturday, a low over the Tasman Sea is expected to spread a moist northerly flow over the South Island, reaching the North Island Sunday and Monday. The low is forecast to lie east of New Zealand by Monday night, allowing cold southerlies to spread northwards.

There is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in Westland, Buller and northwest Nelson on Sunday, and a larger area of low risk from northern Fiordland to Northland, as indicated on the chart. Sunday night and Monday morning, this low risk extends to Bay of Plenty.

[OhauitiWeather]

It’s getting to sound like a broken record.  A low will be crossing the Tasman Sea this weekend, bringing more rain to the country.

Fortunately, the likelihood of flooding and slips isn’t as high.  Bursts of heavy rain are certainly possible, but it looks like the heaviest stuff is not expected to fall on the already sodden ground of South Canterbury and Bay of Plenty.

The best chance for heavy rain looks to be on the western side of the country.  On Sunday, Taranaki, Nelson and the West Coast could all see the heavier falls.  On Monday, the eastern Bay of Plenty and East Cape/Northern Gisborne could see some heavy rain as well, but the chances aren’t very good.

Even though the heavier falls from this system aren’t expected to start until Sunday, that doesn’t mean the country will see a totally dry Saturday.

A weak piece of energy could spark a few showers tomorrow morning about parts of the North Island.  Auckland, Hamilton and New Plymouth could all see some showers overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.


By WeatherWatch.co.nz Analyst Howard Joseph
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/another-weekend-another-tasmanian-low

[OhauitiWeather]

nzherald.co.nz and Philip Duncan bring you the latest weather forecast for New Zealand as yet another low moves in - but this time the forecast is a little more positive for most regions.

Full details in the video - or read the stories on our homepage.

Link to Video:



-Weatherwatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-video-your-weekend-forecast-next-week

[OhauitiWeather]

The low currently about to move into the Tasman Sea is on track and the weather associated with it is still looking like unfolding as predicted by WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters yesterday. The main difference with this low as opposed to the last few systems is that it will be quicker moving.



Weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson from WeatherWatch.co.nz says, “We are still expecting this new low to deepen a little west of New Zealand over the weekend then move over Monday before pushing out to the northeast on Tuesday as an anticyclone nudges in behind it. Expect rain in the west of both Islands on Sunday, rain will be heaviest about the northwest of the South Island and Taranaki. Then showery conditions on Monday and Tuesday for the east of both islands and the North Island's west coast as the flow changes to the southwest.”

The anticyclone at this stage looks to finally give a longer spell of settled weather to the country from mid next week possibly through to the following weekend which will be good news to many. A northwesterly airflow is looking to build over the South Island next weekend which may bring milder spring like conditions to the east.

As for snow Mr Wilkinson says “Snow levels are looking to be above 900m in the South Island on Monday and Tuesday and 1000m in the North Island for Tuesday and Wednesday, so the ski fields should get a top up with around 10cm possible in both areas.”

Homepage image / Sunday 19th August, midday - weathermap.co.nz

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/new-low-still-track

[OhauitiWeather]

Our next weather maker, another Tasman low, will be blanketing much of the country with precipitation by tomorrow evening.



A few thunderstorms are also possible with this system.

The northern tip of Northland could see some showers tonight and tomorrow morning, but the bulk of the precipitation isn’t likely to start showing up until midday tomorrow .

The first rounds of precipitation will likely fall on Nelson and Taranaki during the late morning or early afternoon.  By tomorrow evening, most of the country will have at least a chance for precipitation.  The best chance will be along the far western sections of both islands.

Late tomorrow night, heavy rainfall is possible from Auckland south to Taranaki.  Some thundery falls are possible along the western sections of the North Island tomorrow evening into late tomorrow night.  The thunderstorms aren’t expected to be as brilliant or loud as the stuff last night and early this morning.  However, they could produce some brief heavy rain.

Pockets of heavy rain will also be possible on Monday and Tuesday.  Western Bay of Plenty, East Cape/Northern Gisborne, Taranaki and Nelson could all see heavy rain with the highest risk existing about Taranaki.

Heavy rain is also possible for the eastern ranges of Marlborough and Canterbury on Tuesday.  Although, at this time, the confidence at that forecast is pretty low.  We will have to wait and see how the low develops and changes as it moves across the country.

Homepage image/  Sunday night weather map courtesy of Weathermap.co.nz

By WeatherWatch.co.nz Analyst Howard Joseph
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/tasman-low-could-bring-heavy-rain-more-thunder