tropical cyclones NEWS 2025 AND UP

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Several tropical systems will affect the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean over the coming week, possibly impacting Fiji, Tonga, and–later–Australia's East Coast.


Image: Satellite loop over the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone and numerous tropical lows over the region.Image: Satellite loop over the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone and numerous tropical lows over the region.


The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a region of increased cloudiness and precipitation with enhanced wind convergence extending over the western Pacific Ocean. The SPCZ is most often located over very warm waters from the Western Pacific Warm Pool, helping fuel the intensification of tropical systems over the region. A number of these tropical lows are expected over the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean this week.


Image: Annotated satellite image on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and three tropical systems of interest over the Coral Sea and Pacific Ocean.Image: Annotated satellite image on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and three tropical systems of interest over the Coral Sea and Pacific Ocean.


Tropical Depression TD08F is located in the far east of Fiji's area of responsibility, near Niue. This system is unlikely to directly affect any South Pacific nations in the vicinity. High levels of moisture trapped in the SPCZ are bringing heavy and intense rain to Samoa over the weekend, and to Niue over 24 to 36 hours on Saturday and possibly early Sunday (Niue is east of the date line).


Tropical Depression TD09F is located northeast of Fiji, near the island of Futuna, one of the Wallis and Futuna Island collectivity. This depression is expected to intensify in the coming days, with a high chance of being a tropical cyclone next week. The next tropical cyclone to be named by the Fiji Meteorological Service will be called Tropical Cyclone Rae.


TD09F could come close to western parts of the Fijian island group later on Sunday and on Monday, with a small chance of it impacting Fiji's main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, bringing the risk of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Tonga is more at risk of seeing strong and damaging winds and period of intense rainfall between late Monday and early Wednesday, with the system gaining strength and potentially coming close to the Pacific nation.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/numerous-tropical-cyclones-threaten-the-south-pacific/1890388

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The Mozambican government said on March 14 that Tropical Cyclone Jude, which made landfall in northern Mozambique on the evening of the 9th, brought strong winds, heavy rains and floods to several provinces of Mozambique, killing 14 people and displacing more than 100,000 people.

Mozambique government spokesman Impisa said on the 14th that the casualties mainly occurred in Nampula and Niassa provinces. "Jude" also caused damage to about 20,000 houses. Currently, more than 100,000 disaster victims in Nampula province have taken refuge in nine temporary resettlement centers set up by the government.

[Mark]

Tropical Cyclone Dianne has made landfall during the early hours of Saturday morning along Western Australia's Kimberley coast, bringing with it strong winds and heavy rain. 


The cyclone crossed near Cockatoo Island, just north of Derby, as a Category 1 system. The strongest wind gust of 115km/h was recorded at Koolan Island around 2:30am local time. Winds continued to gust close to 100km/h for a couple of hours before gradually easing as the system spread further inland.


Tropical Cyclone Dianne's formation can be attributed to several meteorological factors that are conducive to cyclone development.​


Warm Ocean Temperatures: A critical factor for the genesis of tropical cyclones is sea surface temperatures of at least 26.5°C. This warmth provides the necessary heat and moisture to fuel the cyclone's development. ​Currently, ocean temperatures to the north of the Kimberley are sitting around 29 or 30°C.

Active Monsoon Trough: The presence of an active monsoon trough can enhance the formation of tropical lows, which may intensify into cyclones under favourable conditions. 

In addition, this heightened activity is partly due to a monsoon surge moving from Indonesia into Australia's northern waters with a favourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cyclone-dianne-delivers-damaging-gusts-to-wa-kimberley-/1890483

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Hurricane Melissa has made landfall in Jamaica as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history.
The US National Hurricane Centre in Miami warned of devastating flash flooding and numerous landslides from the hurricane with 295km/h winds.
The streets in the capital, Kingston, remained largely empty before Melissa made landfall about midday on Tuesday (4am AEDT), save for the lone stray dog crossing puddles and a handful of people walking briskly under tree branches waving in a stiff wind.
https://www.9news.com.au/world/hurricane-melissa-update-storm-intensifies-to-category-5-on-path-to-slam-into-jamaica-as-islands-strongest-recorded-storm/afebb313-b2b8-41c0-b7c4-6c4c24368dd7

[Mark]

Australia's cyclone season has officially begun, with experts warning that signs are showing there is an increased risk of cyclones over the summer months.
The upcoming cyclone season, between November 1 and April 30, could be unusually severe due to warmer sea surface temperatures in the northern parts of the country.
"All tropical cyclones need sea surface temperatures at or above 26.5 degrees to form," Weatherzone's Ben Domensino said.
https://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/australia-weather-cyclone-season/e30662b0-649c-4786-8d45-b05b11bc80ad

[Mark]

The death toll from Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines has reached 46, including six people on a military helicopter that crashed during the powerful storm that unleashed heavy rains and floods across the central region of the country.

Floodwaters trapped many people on their roofs and submerged cars on Tuesday, and entire towns on the island of Cebu have been inundated.

At least 39 people were killed in the central province of Cebu, local authorities said. One person was reported dead on the nearby island of Bohol.

The Huey helicopter went down in Agusan del Sur on the island of Mindanao, where it was conducting a humanitarian disaster response mission, the military said. Six bodies of the crew were recovered and an investigation was under way.









In the 24 hours before Typhoon Kalmaegi, locally named Tino, made landfall shortly before midnight on Monday, the area around provincial capital Cebu City was deluged with 183 millimetres (seven inches) of rain, well in excess its 131-millimetre monthly average, state weather specialist Charmagne Varilla told AFP.

"The water rose so fast," Don del Rosario, 28, told the news wire AFP from Cebu City. "By 4:00am, it was already uncontrollable — people couldn't get out [of their houses]."

"I've been here for 28 years, and this is by far the worst we've experienced."

In a Facebook post on Tuesday, provincial governor Pamela Baricuatro called the situation in Cebu "unprecedented".

"We were expecting the winds to be the dangerous part, but ... the water is what's truly putting our people at risk," Baricuatro said on Facebook. "The floodwaters are just devastating."

Although the storm gradually lost strength on Tuesday, it continued to lash the country with winds of 120km/h (74.5mph) and gusts of 165km/h (102.5mph) as it swept across the Visayas islands headed for northern Palawan and towards the South China Sea.

Tens of thousands of residents were evacuated across the Visayas region, including parts of southern Luzon and northern Mindanao, authorities said. The typhoon was expected to leave the Philippines late on Wednesday or early Thursday.



"Due to interaction with the terrain, Tino may slightly weaken while crossing Visayas. However, it is expected to remain at typhoon intensity throughout its passage over the country," state weather agency PAGASA said in a morning bulletin.

The Philippines is hit by an average of 20 storms and typhoons each year, routinely striking disaster-prone areas where millions live in poverty. The Philippines was hit by two major storms in September, including Super Typhoon Ragasa, which killed at least three people and forced thousands to evacuate from villages and schools in Northern Philippines.

Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall on Thursday night in Vietnam's central regions, which have already suffered heavy floods that killed at least 40 people and left six others missing over the past week.
https://www.sott.net/article/502768-At-least-204-killed-109-missing-as-Typhoon-Kalmaegi-batters-the-Philippines-7-inches-of-rain-in-24-hours-exceeds-monthly-average-UPDATED
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