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Several tropical systems will affect the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean over the coming week, possibly impacting Fiji, Tonga, and–later–Australia's East Coast.


Image: Satellite loop over the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone and numerous tropical lows over the region.Image: Satellite loop over the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone and numerous tropical lows over the region.


The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a region of increased cloudiness and precipitation with enhanced wind convergence extending over the western Pacific Ocean. The SPCZ is most often located over very warm waters from the Western Pacific Warm Pool, helping fuel the intensification of tropical systems over the region. A number of these tropical lows are expected over the Coral Sea and South Pacific Ocean this week.


Image: Annotated satellite image on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and three tropical systems of interest over the Coral Sea and Pacific Ocean.Image: Annotated satellite image on Saturday, February 22, showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and three tropical systems of interest over the Coral Sea and Pacific Ocean.


Tropical Depression TD08F is located in the far east of Fiji's area of responsibility, near Niue. This system is unlikely to directly affect any South Pacific nations in the vicinity. High levels of moisture trapped in the SPCZ are bringing heavy and intense rain to Samoa over the weekend, and to Niue over 24 to 36 hours on Saturday and possibly early Sunday (Niue is east of the date line).


Tropical Depression TD09F is located northeast of Fiji, near the island of Futuna, one of the Wallis and Futuna Island collectivity. This depression is expected to intensify in the coming days, with a high chance of being a tropical cyclone next week. The next tropical cyclone to be named by the Fiji Meteorological Service will be called Tropical Cyclone Rae.


TD09F could come close to western parts of the Fijian island group later on Sunday and on Monday, with a small chance of it impacting Fiji's main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, bringing the risk of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Tonga is more at risk of seeing strong and damaging winds and period of intense rainfall between late Monday and early Wednesday, with the system gaining strength and potentially coming close to the Pacific nation.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/numerous-tropical-cyclones-threaten-the-south-pacific/1890388

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The Mozambican government said on March 14 that Tropical Cyclone Jude, which made landfall in northern Mozambique on the evening of the 9th, brought strong winds, heavy rains and floods to several provinces of Mozambique, killing 14 people and displacing more than 100,000 people.

Mozambique government spokesman Impisa said on the 14th that the casualties mainly occurred in Nampula and Niassa provinces. "Jude" also caused damage to about 20,000 houses. Currently, more than 100,000 disaster victims in Nampula province have taken refuge in nine temporary resettlement centers set up by the government.

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Tropical Cyclone Dianne has made landfall during the early hours of Saturday morning along Western Australia's Kimberley coast, bringing with it strong winds and heavy rain. 


The cyclone crossed near Cockatoo Island, just north of Derby, as a Category 1 system. The strongest wind gust of 115km/h was recorded at Koolan Island around 2:30am local time. Winds continued to gust close to 100km/h for a couple of hours before gradually easing as the system spread further inland.


Tropical Cyclone Dianne's formation can be attributed to several meteorological factors that are conducive to cyclone development.​


Warm Ocean Temperatures: A critical factor for the genesis of tropical cyclones is sea surface temperatures of at least 26.5°C. This warmth provides the necessary heat and moisture to fuel the cyclone's development. ​Currently, ocean temperatures to the north of the Kimberley are sitting around 29 or 30°C.

Active Monsoon Trough: The presence of an active monsoon trough can enhance the formation of tropical lows, which may intensify into cyclones under favourable conditions. 

In addition, this heightened activity is partly due to a monsoon surge moving from Indonesia into Australia's northern waters with a favourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cyclone-dianne-delivers-damaging-gusts-to-wa-kimberley-/1890483