SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINS THE GUTTER

[Mark]

We’re still waiting on the ‘sunspot lull’ of the past few months to pass, even as we edge ever-closer to Solar Maximum.

While lulls are normal statistical fluctuations observed even during very strong solar cycles, this most recent one –which began back late-Sept– is taking longer than expected to bounce back:



[solen.info]

This is extra curious given NOAA’s updated SWPC forecast, which suggests that solar maximum could be reached as early as January 2024, and so leads to the honest questioning: has Solar Cycle 25 already peaked?

Well, it is certainly possible — the sun’s struggle to ‘reignite’ itself these past few months warrants the asking, at least.

Furthermore, we do have many examples of solar cycles achieving their maxes early, such as cycles 15 and 18:



Solar Cycle 15

Solar Cycle 18

What we do know is that solar output has taken a tumble.

Time, of course, will tell if SC25 has peaked; but regardless, the max will arrive far earlier than originally thought, according to NOAA, and so my thoughts are already being drawn to the next cycle, 26.

As I’ve long contended, Solar Cycle 26 could be where the next ‘Grand Solar Minimum’ commences proper, where the chill of solar minimum drives struggle, strife and hardship across swaths of the planet as the cold sets in and the harvests fail — phenomena shown, by historical documentation and proxy data, to occur during every prolonged solar decline of the past.

For us to already find ourselves on the downward-slope of SC25, well, that, at least to me, is a potentially concerning prospect.
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