Weekend Forecast 31st March - 1st April 2012

[JennyLeez]

Post your location or national forecasts for this weekend below.

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[Te Puke Weather]

Easter weather hinges on the big low.

Over the last few weeks we’ve had a lot of people asking about a forecast for Easter.

Now that we are getting a bit closer, it should be a bit easier to produce a forecast that we can have some confidence in.

Note the phrase “should be” in the preceding sentence.

Here’s the problem; the big low that could produce some very stormy weather for the North Island during the week next week will have a big effect on Easter’s weather as well if it shows up.

But, since the formation, track and timing of this low are very much in question right now, it makes an Easter forecast pretty tough.

But, I will give it a shot.

And keep in mind, this is all based on the current scenario which has about a 40% chance of panning out.

At this point, it looks like the low will pass just to our east, moving very slowly southward.  That would mean we would start to feel the effects on Tuesday with increasing winds on the North Island.  On Wednesday, rain would arrive on the North Island.  Late Thursday into Friday, the rain and wind would start to affect the South Island.

Now, by Friday the low will really start die out.  On Saturday, it will weaken even more but will still be just off our eastern coasts.

By Easter Sunday, the low will continue to weaken, however the remnants of it will still be the major player in our weather.

What this boils down to is; Easter Sunday is looking wet for about a third of the country.

Northland, Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula and Waikato are looking like they could be dry.  Much of the South Island also looks like it could be dry with the exception of Marlborough and Canterbury.

Temperatures are likely to be rather cool.  Daytime highs could struggle to reach the upper teens in most areas.  Lower teens are likely for the deep south of the South Island, especially the coastal sections.

So there you go.  There is your Easter forecast as it stands right now.

However, given that it all hinges on what this low does, my confidence in it is not real high.

Stay tuned…

By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph

www.weatherwatch.co.nz

[Te Puke Weather]

Tropical cyclone could trigger a series of lows for NZ

Confidence is mounting that a tropical cyclone will develop this weekend between Vanuatu and Fiji then track south towards New Zealand at the start of next week, possibly bringing severe weather to the North Island.

WeatherWatch.co.nz broke the news on Monday but for much of the week has waited for the international computer models - which help guide forecasters with long range predictions - to all make similar predictions as to intensity and path.  Two other forecasters have now joined our prediction of a significant tropical low, the Fiji Met Service and the New Zealand MetService.

This morning is the first time the models have started to line up - and it puts the upper North Island especially at risk, but also the rest of the North Island and to a lesser degree the upper South Island.

But head weather analyst Philip Duncan says it may not be quite so simple as one storm coming south from the tropics.  "We think this low will be slow moving and significant, but we think other areas of low pressure will bubble up around it - helping spread the energy further".  Mr Duncan says that doesn't mean it will create a stronger storm - instead it simply creates a larger area of wind and rain, while the overall intensity may actually drop.

"The most likely scenario will see not one but at least three low pressure systems working together, one with tropical origins the other two or three with sub-tropical origins.  This could bring a period of gales - possibly severe in some areas like eastern Waikato, also heavy rain for the upper North Island, being fed in from the north east".

Mr Duncan says some models are still picking a low will track into the Tasman, while others say they will slide down the east coast.  But either scenario puts the North Island at risk of severe weather.

And today the Fiji Met Service has lifted their risk for a tropical cyclone forming between Vanuatu and Fiji this weekend to "high", while MetService in NZ has included it in their severe outlook for the first time - saying it could impact the upper North Island as well but admits, as WeatherWatch.co.nz also does, that there is still uncertainty as to the exact tracking.

On Monday WeatherWatch.co.nz said the risk was 20%, then raised their risk to 40% on Wednesday.  Today the weather news authority says confidence is about 90% that a cyclone will form this weekend but says confidence is around 60% that stormy weather will impact the upper North Island next week.

"At least three lows are going to cover a huge chunk of airspace north of New Zealand and around the North Island next week while a very large high - the one that's over us now - will remain to the south.  While this high will help protect the lower part of the country from rough weather it will also contribute to stronger winds in the north and the very slow movement of the systems".

The models also suggest a spin off low may form in the Tasman Sea later next week, potentially bringing a secondary burst of rain for Easter weekend - but confidence of this today remains fairly low.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says dangerous rips and surf can be expected along much of the North Island's east coast next week.  We'll have more details later today on expected beach conditions.

In light of recent flooding in Northland and other upper North Island regions, WeatherWatch.co.nz advises northerners especially to stay up to date with the latest weather news and potential warnings over the coming days.

www.weatherwatch.co.nz

[JennyLeez]

After so many days of dry and settled weather for so much of New Zealand, you would think the other shoe would have to drop at some point…and most likely land squarely on the weekend.

Believe it or not, it looks like that is not the case.  This weekend is shaping up to be almost as quiet as most of this week as been.

There will be a few more chances for showers around.  Auckland, Northland and the Coromandel Peninsula could all see a few showers move through.  Even a clap or two of thunder is possible about Northland.

At this point, the shower (and thunderstorm) chances don’t look very good and even if they do happen they won’t wash out the weekend.

Shower chances will remain in place for Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wellington, Marlborough and Canterbury as well.

The rest of the country is looking to be settled.

High temperatures on both days should be in the mid teens to lower 20’s.


Weatherwatch

[JennyLeez]

Wairoa and out lying areas on the East Coast.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. Fog early. High of 20C. Winds from the East at 10 to 20 km/h. Breezy.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 11C. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 km/h.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. Fog early. High of 20C. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 20 km/h.

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 12C. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 km/h.

[TokWW]

Well the bland weather (long may it live) will continue for a few days yet - at least through the weekend.

Tonight, in Northland, there could be some 20-30km/hr easterlies in exposed coastal areas, more easterlies to SE in Gisborne Wairoa to Napier with some cloud tonight and tomorrow, possible rain tonight as it cools, winds to 30km/hr. The cloud should linger into tomorrow morning with fog in sheltered areas.

Central NI will have light easterly winds tonight to calm in sheltered areas, lows from 5 to 10degC with a nice day tomorrow.  Western NI areas may have cooler overnight temps in sheltered areas, off shore winds near the coast.
Wellington will have light variable winds tonight and tomorrow, mainly fine.

The East Coast of SI should have nor easters tonight and tomorrow with morning cloud, possible rain at Banks Peninsular in the afternoon.  The West coast will have light variable winds, calm overnights and clear daytime skies. Inland light norwesters may pickup on Sunday, frosts in sheltered areas for the three nights.  Ligh SE winds tonight will turn northerly tomorrow and pick up to 20km/hr for Southland both Saturday and Sunday.

Overall a pleasant weekend for most, but some damp around Hawkes Bay to Gisborne on Saturday but fine on Sunday. 

The easterlies will get steadily stronger in Northland over the weekend as the Sub-Tropical Low descends into the Tasman Sea and gets closer. 

Next week -
It will fade however and not interfere with the weather pattern we are in although another descending Sub Tropical Low from Fiji will intensify and affect the North Island weather from the north east in the following week as the easterlies increase and by Tuesday night there is likely to be rain and strong winds on the east coast from Northland to Hawk Bay.  It stalls off the east coast at Gisborne, still there on Friday with heavy rain and strong sou-easters.  Marlborough will feel this by then as well.

[JennyLeez]

This was my forecast for today Sunday:

This is what I got:


 

[Deano]

JL, Has your clock not changed? Daylight Time is no more!
Agree with the weather, the year that wasn't!

[JennyLeez]

Yep Deano, I am all good. How come you asked

[Deano]

Wx tag on camera is showing 'Daylight Time'

Sent from my GT-I9000

[JennyLeez]

Ok I see. Strange cam software reading correct and showing standard time but when uploads reverts back to day light time.
I give up and I have removed it.
Deano remind me to put in back in 6 months