TC Pam

[gabba]

Metservice have updated their blog:
http://blog.metservice.com/

At 1pm this afternoon (NZ local time) Tropical Cyclone Pam was located about 500km to the north of New Zealand. TC Pam has weakened somewhat in the last 6 hours, therefore being downgraded to a category 4 cyclone and forecast to weaken to a category 3 cyclone overnight. Pam is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne) by midday Monday.

Visible satellite image of tropical cyclone Pam (left).
Visible satellite image of tropical cyclone Pam (left).
Rain radar (right) at 3pm Sunday 15 March 2015.
Rain radar (right) at 3pm Sunday 15 March 2015.
The satellite image (left) shown above clearly shows thick cloud bands with embedded thunderstorms around the centre of the low producing heavy rain over the ocean north of New Zealand. Outer rain bands have spread over Northland and Auckland as seen in the above radar image (right).

[gabba]

So, doing a hunt around it looks like the general consensus is that pam will remain a TC until it is east of East Cape , which is most unusual at these latitudes. Currently Pam is heading sse at about 60kmh

Strong winds and heavy rain predicted for North and East of North Island. Tologa Bay, Tokomaru Bay expectong storm swell of up to 9m. Metservice currently have warnings in place. It's still a damaging TC so people in those areas need to prepare for a tough 24 hours. It's not a normal storm, so don't take it lightly.

In wellington we are not likely to see much rain until tomorrow night, and Tuesday. Again we will need to see what the next 24 hours bring. We had the fire engine up past our place today, presumably they were checking for obvious issues around the place in preparation, or going for a Sunday drive!

Auckland and northland are already seeing some rain from this system, and it is still 400km out from those places.

[gabba]

Stuff.co.nz have an article with images of the devastation caused in Vanuatu. Scary stuff.

Cyclone Pam: Vanuatu aftermath 'heartbreaking' | Stuff.co.nz

[Martin4Jay]

When we were battered last year with winds around 70mph was frightening enough thinking of you all

[gabba]

Pam visited Auckland last night. There were some power cuts, but nothing major it seems.

The ex-cyclone seems to have tracked east a little further again, so this will reduce the impact on some areas. However there are still forecast impacts on the east coast of the North Island from Hastings north.

Stuff have a live blog that will be worthwhile tracking today. Also keep an eye on the metservice site for any Warnings issued

Cyclone Pam live blog | Stuff.co.nz

There is a great photo of the impact on Te Araroa. All schools in Gisborne are closed. Latest Sat Image from met service has just been posted

[David]

Howick, Auckland: We've had 40mm rain from Pam. Only real soaking of rain all year.
Wind never eventuated, max gust only 52 km/h.

[gabba]

Just posted on MetService twitter feed:

Hicks Bay (closest weather station to Cyclone Pam) now has a pressure of 975hPa. Here's the trace for last 48hr. ^CN

[JennyLeez]

Pam now closest to NZ, 144km/h winds recorded on Great Barrier Island -
Latest article from Weather Watch.

'Pam was this morning downgraded to an ex-tropical cyclone but the winds and rain around it remain severe and powerful still ... but are substantially weaker than when the storm was Cat5 just 24 hours ago.

Warnings are given as worst case possible scenarios based on the facts at the time. If a tornado missed hitting a house the warnings would still be justified - same when a severe cyclone narrowly misses our largest city with damaging winds.  The 144km/h gust on Great Barrier Island was on the edge of the severe winds - not even in the middle of it.

With that in mind the centre of the low is now at its closest to New Zealand and will continue to move close to land into Monday afternoon.  The bulk of the severe weather is out at sea.

Across Monday Pam will move rain and gales down East Cape and into Gisborne and Wairoa.  Huge seas, gales and driving rain will make conditions dangerous outdoors. 

Regions south of Hawkes Bay are not expected to have severe weather but may get wet and windy for a time.'

Full Report here:

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/cyclone-pams-centre-moves-closer-northern-new-zealand-5-maps

[JennyLeez]

Homes are being evacuated, roads are flooded, and power has been cut to several communities as ex-tropical cyclone Pam moves towards the East Coast.

Coastal towns are bracing for gales, severe rain and heavy seas as the storm centre moves closer throughout the afternoon.

In Gisborne District, more than 40 people have been moved out of homes in danger of flooding.

The army has helped evacuate 24 people from Anaura Bay, where the road has been closed due to flooding, while another six have been evacuated from Mangatuna, north of Tolaga Bay, where the river has risen 5.5m in four hours.

Gisborne Civil Defence Emergency Management said 10 residents from Te Araroa's East Cape Rd are being sheltered in the town's Hinerupe Marae.

Power is out to several communities in the region, and residents are being warned power could be intermittent throughout the day as faults are repaired and new outages occur.

Hicks Bay and the East Cape had average wind speeds of 85km/h, and gusts of wind of up to 120km/h.

Report from nzherald.co.nz

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11418050

Attached, Tologa Bay

Update: At least 600 customers are without power on the East Coast.

The highest rainfall of 161mm and 144mm have been recorded for the northwest of Tolaga Bay in the past 12 hours.

[gabba]

A state of local emergency has been declared on the Chatham Islands. Here's the statement from the NZ Civil Defence website:


The Mayor of the Chatham Islands, Alfred Preece, has declared a state of local emergency on the Islands at 1:35pm Chatham Islands Time, 16 March 2015. The reason for the declaration is the imminent arrival of Cyclone Pam combined with rural fires on the Islands. The declaration will be used to protect public safety and coordinate the emergency response.

[gabba]

Met ServiceMaster have a very good summary of this event on their blog here
TC Pam Summary | MetService Blog

[Martin4Jay]

Very informative Gabba thanks