Big Storm Xaver

[Mark]

The predicted surface winds of Xaver will be similar to the ones the Netherlands experienced during the great February 1, 1953 North Sea storm that breached dikes in the Netherlands and England and killed over 2100 people. That storm bottomed out with a central pressure of 964 mb. Wednesday's 0Z European model run bottoms Xaver out at 964 mb, and the 12Z GFS is more intense, at 956 mb. However, the 1953 storm was much slower, and brought sustained winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph) to the North Sea for more than 24 hours, allowing a huge storm surge in excess of 3 meters (10 feet) to pile up. In contrast, "Xaver" is expected to bring 50-knot winds to the North Sea for only about 9 hours, and the storm surge will not be as high as occurred in 1953. The maximum storm surge of Xaver will be in Germany and Denmark, farther to the east than occurred in the 1953 storm. The storm tide will be unusually high, since we are only two days past the new moon. Fortunately, the German coast is well protected by dikes, which are about 8 meters high, some even higher, and these dikes should be able to withstand Xaver's storm surge. The German weather service storm surge forecast made Wednesday morning called for a storm tide of 3 meters above average high tide in Cuxhaven, and 2.75 meters in Bremerhaven, during the high tide cycle early Friday morning.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2592&page=1#commenttop

• Tweet