Weekend Forecast 3rd - 4th March 2012

[JennyLeez]

Wellington can expect winds of up to 110kmh on Saturday as MetService warns of a 'serious situation' of weather for the North Island.

MetService is forecasting a wet and violent Saturday for Wellington with southerly gale gusts of up to 110 km per hour and rain until nightfall.

Temperatures would reach a maximum of about 15 degrees but would feel colder because of the strong winds, forecaster Geoff Sanders said.

MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett said a deep and vigorous low would pass over the North Island on the weekend.

"This is a serious situation and poses a weather hazard for many North Island places. Gales are expected over all of the North Island. These may be severe and damaging in some areas, particularly on Saturday morning."
Read Further.....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/6506716/Wet-and-violent-weather-for-weekend

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[JennyLeez]

Wairoa, Hawkes Bay.....   not looking good at all 

Saturday
Overcast with rain. High of 18C. Winds from the South at 55-75 km/h. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 60.2 mm possible.


Saturday Night
 Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 11C. Winds from the SSW at 35-40 km/h. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 10.4 mm possible.

Sunday
 Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 19C. Winds from the SSW at 30-40 km/h. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 1.0 mm possible.

Sunday Night
 Partly cloudy. Low of 10C. Winds from the SSW at 15-25 km/h.


More......
http://wairoa.net/weather/forecast.php

[Suezy]

DEVELOPING STORY --- WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters have high confidence that a significant and rapidly deepening low this weekend will reach "weather bomb" criteria - where the air pressure plummets 24hPa in 24 hours.  This is much faster than the usual rate for a storm to develop.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the storm will be timed to rapidly develop on Saturday while it actually crosses the North Island.  "It will go from a non-existent mark on our weather maps today to a nasty storm by Saturday morning - with the bulk of the deepening happening in a 24 hour time frame".

The weather bomb is expected to bring gales force winds to many parts of the North Island and in extreme cases those winds will be destructive.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-bomb-aiming-north-island-developing-story

[TokWW]

The weather is expected to get cold and very windy for the next two days. It is very windy here today in the Waikato with strong to gale force Westerlies gusting to 45km/hr here in Tokoroa. Canterbury is suffering high winds and very cold temperatures for this time of year too.

Contect:
The MetService is warning the North Island faces a "serious situation" on Saturday, with severe gale-force winds expected to cause damage.

 MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett said a deep and vigorous low would pass over the North Island.

 "This is a serious situation and poses a weather hazard for many North Island places. Gales are expected over all of the North Island. These may be severe and damaging in some areas, particularly on Saturday morning."

 Corbett said the forecasters still had to see the whites of the storm's eyes, but the wind could reach 120kmh and sea swells 6-8 metres.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6505984/Atrocious-weather-ahead-for-North-Island

The image attached is from MetVUW...

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast1.php?type=rain&region=nzni&tim=42

Three Day Forecast:
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=nzni&noofdays=3

[ato2]

Light winds here in New Plymouth- mostly overcast. Met Service site seems to be unsure about Taranaki, as sometimes seems to be the case.

[JennyLeez]

Valid to: 9:31am Saturday 3 Mar 2012
DEEP LOW EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTH ISLAND SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING GALES IN MANY AREAS
A low is expected to deepen rapidly over the Tasman Sea today and cross the North Island on Saturday. Warnings for severe gale force winds and heavy rain have been issued for much of the North Island and the top of the South Island.
This watch is for the possibility that rain in Hawkes Bay may reach warning levels during Saturday and for the risk that southwest gales over Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula may reach severe gale force at times Saturday morning.
People are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in case this watch has to be updated to a full warning.
This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday 2 March 2012
Forecast prepared by: Erick Brenstrum
Metservice.

[hbweather]

It looks like we're in for an "interesting" weekend. MetVUW forecast charts have the eye of the system tracking right over the Hawkes Bay. 

Watch my website, especially the LIVE page, and I'll also report in the Today's Weather thread...

George

[JennyLeez]

Severe weather warnings cancel Interislander sailings.
Due to the severe weather warning issued by the Met Service we have made the decision to cancel scheduled Interislander sailings after the 6.25pm sailing from Wellington to Picton this evening.

“The safety of our passengers is our first priority and with both the Met Service and Civil Defence issuing warnings about the weather it is simply too risky to continue sailing” says Acting General Manager Interislander Ross Allen.

“We are extremely apologetic to our customers and hope they will understand our rationale for cancelling the sailings. We are now working to contact affected customers and to move them to alternative sailings outside the weather warning period.”

“If the weather allows, we hope to resume sailings on Sunday morning.”

[JennyLeez]

ISSUED BY MetService AT
3:35 pm 02-Mar-2012
Heavy rain and severe gales expected over many parts of the North Island and the top of the South Island on Saturday.
A low is expected to deepen rapdily as it crosses the Tasman Sea today and should be intense as it crosses the North Island on Saturday. The most likely track of the low centre is from Taranaki to Hawkes Bay during Saturday morning with pressure at the low centre falling to near 970hPa.
A period of heavy rain is likely in many areas and warning amounts are expected in the ranges from Mt Taranaki to Mt Ruapehu, the Ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, also Wellington, Wairarapa and the Kaikoura Ranges. Streams and rivers will rise quickly.
Gales should affect much of the North Island and the top of the South Island for a time. Severe gales are forecast for North Island areas from Taranaki and Waikato across to Bay of Plenty and down to Wellington as well as Buller, Nelson and Marlborough. These winds have the potential to be damaging with hazardous travelling conditions.
Rough seas and heavy swells may cause erosion and storm surge inundation in some coastal areas.
Conditions should ease later on Saturday as the low moves away to the east.
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Mt Taranaki and the ranges across to Mt Ruapehu
FORECAST
Rain is expected to become heavy overnight. In the 18 hours from 10pm Friday to 4pm Saturday expect 80 to 100mm of rain, but 150 to 180mm is possible on higher slopes of Mt Taranaki.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne.
FORECAST
Rain is expected to become heavy overnight. In the 6 to 9 hours from midnight Friday, expect 60 to 80mm of rain.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wairarapa and the eastern hills of Wellington.
FORECAST
Rain should become heavy overnight. In the 17 hours from 10pm Friday, expect 100 to 120mm of rain.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Kaikoura Ranges
FORECAST
Rain should become heavy overnight. In the 15 hours from 9pm Friday expect 80 to 100 mm of rain. During this period, 50 to 70mm is likely over the Sounds and other areas near the coast.
STRONG WIND WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Taranaki, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taihape
FORECAST
Northwest gales should become severe with gusts around 140km/h between about 5am and 9am Saturday morning then tend southerly and may gust 120km/h before easing below severe gale by about midday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wanganui, Manawatu, Horowhenua and the Kapiti Coast
FORECAST
Severe gale southeast winds are expected to develop early Saturday morning. Gusts of 150km/h are possible between about 4am and midday. The winds should then ease and tend southerly.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wellington
FORECAST
Severe gale south to southeast winds are expected to develop early Saturday morning. Gusts of 150km/h are possible between about 4am and 4pm Saturday. The southerlies should then slowly ease.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Nelson, Marlborough, Buller
FORECAST
Severe gale southeast winds are expected to develop overnight. Gusts of 150km/h are possible between 3am and 10am Saturday. The winds should then ease.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wairarapa
FORECAST
Severe gale south to southeast winds are expected to develop early Saturday. Gusts of around 120km/h are expected between 5am and 4pm Saturday, but 150km/h possible near the coast. The winds should then slowly ease.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Hawkes Bay
FORECAST
Northwest gales may reach severe gale at times between 6am and 10am at with gusts around 120km/h. The winds should then tend southerly with gusts 120km/h from 10am to 6pm and possibly 150km/h near the coast. The winds should then slowly ease.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Gisborne
FORECAST
Severe gale northwest winds may develop early Saturday with gusts 120km/h possible between 6am and 2pm. The winds should then tend south or southwest with gusts 140km/h possible from 2pm to 8pm, especially in coastal areas. The winds should then slowly ease.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Waikato, Taupo, Bay of Plenty
FORECAST
Northwest to west gales should develop early Saturday and may reach severe gale with gusts 120km/h between 7am and 11am Saturday. The winds should then tend southerly and ease.

[JennyLeez]

'Nasty storm': Power outages possible:
Power company Vector is warning customers across the North Island to be prepared for possible power outages, as a forecast storm gets set to hit the country.

Tens of thousands of people are likely to have their planned weekend events dampened by forecast heavy rain and gale-force winds.

Organisers of major weekend events were last night hoping for the best but preparing for the worst as a "nasty storm" bore down on New Zealand.

It is due to make landfall tonight and get more intense as it makes its way over the North Island tomorrow, forecasters say.
NZHerald
Read more:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/weather/news/article.cfm?c_id=10&objectid=10789240

Victoria University's MetVuw service predicts the weather situation over the North Island at 7am tomorrow will look like this. Graphic / MetVuw

[iomkiwi]

See also http://www.localweather.net.nz/smf/marine/marine-forecast-for-taranaki-coast/msg1555/#msg1555

[ato2]

OK, now let me be devil's advocate. Will it be as bad as all this or not?We have had a number of hyped up weather events in recent years. This is one of the greatest yet.

[iomkiwi]

Well, it was predicted to be destructive and it seems it was. I wouldn't call that overhyped - seems it was pretty accurate.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6516598/Weather-bomb-causes-havoc-in-North-Island

[ato2]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6516598/Weather-bomb-causes-havoc-in-North-Island[/url]
This is a discussion that I would like to have, when all reports are in, so we can compare the predictions with the results. The end result, where I live, did not match the predictions- it was a just a moderately windy night. We have had dreadful weather events in the past, and I cannot see this event being on a par with those. But the media are using the language of hyperbole to describe what is just a short, nasty storm- we will have plenty of others in the future.
Shall we create a new topic, a little later, to chew this over?
Cheers
Tom