Weekend Forecast 14th July - 15th July 2012

[JennyLeez]

Issued by MetService :

Friday
North Island, mostly fine in the east, cloudy periods in the west with some drizzle about Taranaki and south of Levin. South Island, rain in the west, with heavy falls, high cloud in the east, with scattered rain in the far south.

Saturday
North Island, fine in Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, cloudy periods elsewhere, with drizzle from Taranaki down to Wellington. South Island, heavy rain in the west, and scattered falls spreading further east.

Chatham Islands
Fine spells on Thursday with northwesterlies developing. Fine spells on Friday with freshening northwesterlies. On Saturday, strong northwesterlies, with showers developing.


Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay.
Who invented the word O V E R C A S T!!!!!

Saturday
Clear in the morning, then overcast. High of 17C. Windy. Winds from the NNW at 20 to 30 km/h.

Saturday Night
Overcast. Low of 9C. Breezy. Winds from the NNW at 20 to 25 km/h.


Sunday
Overcast. High of 16C. Windy. Winds from the NNW at 25 to 30 km/h


Sunday Night
Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 11C. Windy. Winds from the North at 25 to 30 km/h. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 4.8 mm possible.

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[OhauitiWeather]

A fairly large low pressure system moves into the Tasman Sea this coming Saturday and sandwiched between it will be an increasing moist northwesterly airstream over New Zealand with an anticyclone slowly departing the North Island.

At this stage the low is looking to slip to the south of the country on Sunday and a more general southwesterly air change moves over early next week. This means that the West Coast of the South Island should be in for cloudy weather and rain heavy at times from Friday, the North Islands West Coast shouldn’t see any rain till later on Sunday or early Monday.

Totals on the West Coast of the South Island at this stage are looking to be quite high beginning early Friday morning with 200 to 250mm possible then easing later on Saturday or early Sunday, so if you are planning any outdoor activities there please keep an eye on weather warnings for this coming weekend. East coasts of both Islands will be in for some great weather and mild temperatures, although high cloud and strong northwesterly winds inland will affect the South Island in particular and there is the chance of a few brief showers spreading off the ranges at times from the west on Saturday and Sunday.

Late Monday and then Tuesday next week people from Otago right up along the east coast to Gisborne will get some wet weather as the flow changes to the south but that is a while out and some details could change.

In summary, main features to watch is heavy rain about the South Island’s West Coast and the Southern Alps from Friday, 200 to 250mm of rain possible. Also strong northwesterly winds in inland areas of the South Island’s east coast. Weatherwatch.co.nz will keep you posted.


Homepage image / rain map for 6pm Saturday 14th July 2012 - Weathermap.co.nz


By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/tasman-low-weekend-west-coast-heavy-rain

[OhauitiWeather]

The high that is bringing stunning weather to most regions across the nation is still expected to leave our shores by the end of this weekend - to allow a change in our weather pattern to move in.

The change will start off wet, but it may well herald more high pressure systems for the country over the next couple of weeks.

This Friday the high - that has brought heavy frosts to Auckland and severe frosts to the deep south - will start to slip out to the east of the nation.  The ridge of high pressure will start to leave the South Island first then the rest of the North Island by Sunday.

Behind it is a low pressure system that will drive up the winds and push in rain then showers.

However behind this low is another high.  Long range computer guidance shows the highs changing shape - which could mean longer dry spells and fewer southerlies...for July anyway.

For much of this year many of the large highs have been pulling up air from well south of New Zealand - some have even brushed Antarctica.  But the new shapes coming in are far more west to east - sideways if you like.  This tends to increase our chances of westerlies, which are generally drier then northerlies and much warmer than southerlies.

Recently NIWA predicted drier weather moving in for the country too.


- WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/more-highs-way

[OhauitiWeather]

The incoming heavy rain is still on track to hit the West Coast of the South Island from Friday then ease during Sunday, showers will continue at times through to Monday but shouldn’t be as heavy. The totals over this whole period could be quite high with 300 to 400mm falling on the Coast and in the ranges / Southern Alps. The main period of heavy rain is likely on Friday and Saturday however, peak time for the heaviest rain at this stage looks to be the later half of Friday.



It will not be the best weekend for outdoor activities on the West Coast that’s for sure, also rivers east of the divide will rise rapidly with the heavy rain in the alps forecast. Strong west to northwesterly winds are still likely in exposed inland areas on the eastern side of the divide for a time on Friday morning then again on Sunday.

Runanga just north of Greymouth has coped it recently with two flooding's last month. Greymouth resident Dale Small has reported that the council has done some work to Raleigh Creek so this will be the first test of work carried out to help prevent flooding.

The low pressure system generating all this is still looking likely to slip south of the country early next week with a southwest change then moving over before another anticyclone moves in. The high should bring fine weather again to many areas particularly in the east for the latter half of next week.

Homepage image / rain map for 6pm Friday 13th July 2012 - Weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/heavy-rain-still-track-west

[JennyLeez]

Thu, 12/07/2012 - Update from Weather watch for the weekend:
Heavy rain is still forecast to makes it’s way right up north along the West Coast starting in Fiordland in the early hours tomorrow then easing in the evening, progressing to areas north of the Glaciers by midday Friday then the heaviest falls will reach north of Westport by midday Saturday. Heavy rain will ease north of the Glaciers on Sunday morning as the slow moving front associated with this system makes it’s way north.
Overall amounts from early Friday through to Sunday north of the Glaciers are expected to be 300 to 400mm in the ranges, around 100 to 200mm on the coast itself. South of the Glaciers rain will be heaviest tomorrow but the duration will be a little shorter as conditions ease in the evening, 200 to 300mm of rain is expected in the ranges down there with up to 100 to 150mm on the coast.
Temperatures will average about 10 degrees on the West Coast for Friday.
Northwesterly winds will be strong about inland areas east of the divide tomorrow but gale conditions should keep at bay, winds will ease about Otago in the morning then later in the day about Canterbury and Marlborough.
Monday might be a day to watch for northwesterly gales in inland areas mainly north of Canterbury, this is looking to be a period of pre frontal winds ahead of an evening southwest change.
It's also a worthy point to mention that as this front moves north off the South Island on Sunday Taranaki will be in for heavy rain easing on Monday morning. Up to 150mm of rain looks possible there over the period from later on Saturday through to Monday morning. The Waikato and Auckland areas may catch some brief heavy rain later on Sunday night and on Monday morning but the amounts don't look large.

[JennyLeez]

Update from the Metservice:
Saturday.
Northland to Taumarunui and Taupo, including Bay of Plenty
Fine and cloudy periods. A few showers about Taumarunui, Taupo and Bay of Plenty, especially tomorrow.

Gisborne and Hawkes Bay
Fine, with high cloud.

Taranaki, also Horowhenua, Kapiti and Wellington
A few showers today. Rain developing tomorrow, with heavy falls about Mt Taranaki later.

Wanganui, Taihape, Manawatu, also Wairarapa
Cloudy periods today. Some brief rain tomorrow.

Marlborough and Nelson
Scattered rain developing today, more persistent and heavier tomorrow.

Buller, Westland and Fiordland
Periods of rain, with some heavy falls.

Canterbury
Mainly fine today, but rain about the Alps, heavy near the divide. Scattered rain tomorrow morning and again from evening.

Otago and Southland
Occasional rain, clearing tomorrow afternoon.

Sunday
North Island, rain spreading to most places, but only scattered falls in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, some heavy falls in the west. South Island, rain, persistent and heavy in the northwest at first, easing in the north and west and clearing in the east.

Monday
North Island, unsettled with rain or showers. South Island, some rain or showers in the north and west, cloudy periods in the east, with a few showers near Foveaux Strait.

[JennyLeez]

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 2113hrs 13-Jul-2012

NORTHWEST GALES FOR MARLBOROUGH, WELLINGTON AND SOUTH WAIRARAPA.
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE TARARUA RANGE AND MT TARANAKI.

A broad trough over the South Island is moving northwards, bringing
heavy rain to the South Island west coast, and as it nears central
New Zealand Friday night and Saturday, strong to gale northwesterlies.
Heavy rainfall warnings are in force for many areas. These now
include the South Arnaud and Richmond Ranges of Marlborough and parts
of the outer Marlborough Sounds.
This watch is now extended to cover the possibility of rainfall
accumulations meeting warning criteria for the Tararua Range and
about Mt Taranaki from Saturday night through Sunday.
This watch also covers the possibility of severe northwest gales
about inland parts of Marlborough, especially the Marlborough Sounds,
Wellington and southern Wairarapa Saturday morning and again from
Saturday evening. The watch for severe gales over central and
northern Canterbury is lifted.

[OhauitiWeather]

The weekend weather video and a look ahead at next week.

This video was recorded on Friday for the weekend

Link to Video:


WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-torrential-rain-moving-slowly-west-coast