El Niño & la Nina.

[Mark]

A Super El Niño acts as a massive planetary heat engine, releasing vast amounts of stored oceanic energy into the atmosphere and significantly altering the global jet stream. Studies have confirmed that a Super El Niño can affect global climate for several years, transforming typical seasonal patterns and altering everything from international agriculture to winter storm tracks.

In this article, we will analyze the latest oceanic data and compare the current 2026 signatures to the strongest historical events of recent decades. We will also look at the latest seasonal forecasts and why this El Niño could be a record breaker. Also, we will find the first major weather impacts across the United States, Canada, and Europe, from Summer to the Atlantic Hurricane season, and into the Winter 2026/2027.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/super-el-nino-2026-forecast-global-weather-shift-expected-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[Mark]

Forecast models are currently assigning roughly equal probability to a very strong, strong, moderate, or weak-to-neutral El Niño

El Niño is one of the most observed systems on the planet. Ocean heat content, surface temperatures, trade winds, atmospheric response, all measured continuously.

Even so, the models are struggling to separate outcomes.

If they cannot resolve the strength of the next cycle, that limitation carries forward.

As Javier Vinós points out, “Models can’t be trusted. Anything we don’t know is not included, and many things we do know are incorrectly included. Only a fool would trust a model that hasn’t been properly validated.”
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/el-nino-coin-toss-africans-dont-care

[Mark]

Meteorologists on X are once again warning about a powerful El Niño, pointing to a new plume of warm subsurface water moving across the Pacific "like a freight train." The latest water temperature data suggest that El Niño later this year could rank among the strongest on record, with potentially significant implications for the Lower 48.

"Updated El Niño forecast for this summer/autumn is 'off the charts' EXTREME with 'boiling red' map colors along Equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean," meteorologist Ryan Maue wrote on X. He said this is "code red the Earth's climate system going into Summer 2026," which only means "suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity."

Meteorologist Ben Noll said, "A brand new El Niño plume from ECMWF reaches +3˚C in most scenarios by November, which would put this event among the strongest on record."
https://www.sott.net/article/506149-Meteorologists-sound-the-alarm-El-Nino-plume-racing-across-Pacific-like-a-freight-train

[Mark]

‘super’ El Niño, however, this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology.

This year’s Australian snow season could be influenced by a very strong El Niño, increasing the likelihood of below-average snow in the Australian Alps.

The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are in place. However, an El Niño pattern is emerging, and forecast models predict that El Niño will become established this winter and may last through the second half of the year.

Some forecast models, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S2 model, predict that the impending El Niño will become very strong, meaning sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean will reach more than 2°C above the long-term average. Some forecasters and researchers refer to a very strong El Niño as a ‘super’ El Niño, however this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/how-do-super-el-nino-events-affect-the-australian-snow-season/1891355?fbclid=IwY2xjawR1sF9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeN-spt2FJ10G1paFARXm7Zzw1uOsLnhfqRcINfqqVX29XGH1c4cwvzDslGWw_aem_ot6lrMOI0PasgANX8cFh5w

[Mark]

Australia could be in for an unusually dry and warm winter and spring this year as a developing El Niño causes high pressure systems to dominate Australia’s weather patterns in the coming months.

Will El Niño develop in 2026?

There are clear signs that an El Niño pattern is becoming established in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with several key oceanic and atmospheric indices tipping over El Niño thresholds in recent weeks.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/el-nino-shaping-australias-winterspring-2026-weather-outlook--in-maps/1891401