Atlantic hurricane season

[Mark]

Colorado State University has cut its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

Its earlier April outlook called for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 90. The June 10 update now calls for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 70.

That puts the forecast below the multidecadal average.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/alaska-cold-refuses-to-quit-atlantic

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[Mark]

The Atlantic has reached late September without producing a single hurricane — the first season since 1914 to do so.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s latest full-season tally, 2026 has produced six named storms, zero hurricanes and zero major hurricanes. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which combines storm strength and duration, stands at just 6.3 — 92% below the 1991–2020 norm for this point in the season.

The average Atlantic season would have produced roughly four hurricanes by now.

Closest came Fay, which peaked just below hurricane strength at 70 mph (113 km/h). But she has now fizzled, with the NHC issuing its final advisory Tuesday, Sept 22.

Not since 1914 has a season made it this far without a hurricane. That year ultimately finished with none at all, as did 1907. In 1905, the first hurricane did not arrive until Oct 8. Records before the satellite era are less certain, as storms over the open ocean could have gone undetected.

The chief culprit in 2026 is straightforward: El Niño. Strong upper-level winds have generated exceptional shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean, repeatedly tearing developing storms apart. Dry air has also worked against development.

We’re seeing an interesting media pivot.
https://electroverse.substack.com/p/no-atlantic-hurricanes-by-sept-23