Mow your Lawns today; Wet Week Looming 8th June onwards.

[JennyLeez]

Forecast for the coming week not looking too great for the North Island and top of the South.
Below are the latest models from weatherzone.co.nz and the NZ Metservice latest Weather Watch.






From the Metservice:

A complex low is forecast to move towards New Zealand on Sunday, with an associated frontal rainband slowly extending onto northern and central parts of the country. The complex low is then expected to become slow moving over New Zealand through much of next week, bringing widespread unsettled weather. The track of this complex low as well as the progression of the front are still uncertain and will determine the location and duration of any heavy rain.

There is moderate confidence of further significant rainfall over Westland during Sunday, on top of the heavy rain that has already fallen there (see latest Severe Weather Warning for more details).

There is high confidence of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria over northwest Nelson later on Sunday and Monday, with a broader moderate risk extending over Buller, the remainder of Nelson, northern Marlborough and Taranaki during this time.

There is low confidence in rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria about the eastern hills of Northland and northern Auckland from late Sunday through to Tuesday as the slow moving front crosses these areas, with moderate confidence that a warning will be required for Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne from Monday through to Wednesday in a strong moist northeast flow.

Given the uncertainty regarding the progression of the associated low there is a broad low risk of significant rainfall over eastern parts of the South Island from Marlborough down to Dunedin from later on Sunday through to Wednesday, although this risk is considered nearer moderate about the Kaikoura Coast and Ranges and North Canterbury from Monday to Wednesday.

Finally, there is also low confidence in rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria over eastern parts of the North Island from Gisborne to Wairarapa on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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[JennyLeez]

From the Metservice.
Maps above from weatherzone still apply.



Valid from Tuesday 10 June 2014 to Friday 13 June 2014

A trough of low pressure is expected to lie slow-moving just west of New Zealand through to Friday directing a northeast to easterly airstream over northern and central areas. One low is expected to move down the trough to the west of New Zealand on Monday before swinging away west over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday. A second low is likely to move down the trough over or close to Northland on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for parts of Northland, the Coromandel Peninsula, Nelson, Marlborough, Kaikoura Coast and Canterbury for Monday and continuing into Tuesday.

In addition further heavy rain is expected in parts of the north and east of both islands from Wednesday through to Thursday.

Also, easterly gales may rise to severe gale in western parts of the North Island as shown on the chart on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[JennyLeez]

Wild weather warnings still in place for North Island.

AREA/S AFFECTED
Western Bay of Plenty, Coromandel Peninsula and eastern Waikato near the Kaimai Range
FORECAST

Further periods of heavy rain are expected at times today, with possible thundery downpours, easing tonight or early Friday morning. In the 18 hours from 9am Thursday to 3am Friday, expect a further 50 to 80mm, but possibly 120mm in localised areas, especially about the Kaimai Range. Peak intensities mostly 10 to 15mm/hr, but may rise to 15 to 25mm/hr in possible thunderstorms.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Gisborne
FORECAST

Heavy rain about the hills and ranges should ease early Friday morning. In the 22 hours from 9am Thursday to 7am Friday, expect a further 50 to 80mm about the hills and ranges and possibly up to 120mm north of Tolaga Bay (this is on top of substantial amounts that have already fallen). Peak intensities of 10 to 15mm/hr are likely at times about the ranges, especially in the north.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Hawkes Bay
FORECAST

Steady rain about the hills and ranges is expected to ease early Friday morning. In the 20 hours from 9am Thursday to 5am Friday, expect a further 30 to 60mm to accumulate about the hills and ranges on top of the more substantial amounts that have already fallen. Peak intensities of around 5mm/hr are likely at times about the ranges.



The weekend will be clear for most of New Zealand but prepare for the rain to return come Monday.