Weather Forecast for weekend 15th to 19th October 2012

[Te Puke Weather]

Issued by The MetService

Monday
North Island, a few showers, but becoming fine in Bay of Plenty. South Island, showers in the west and far south, mostly fine elsewhere but a period of showers near the east coast.

Tuesday
North Island, a few showers in the north and west, mainly fine in the east and south. South Island, showers in the west, and a brief period of showers spreading north elsewhere.

Wednesday
North Island, cloud increasing in most places, with scattered showers, but mostly fine from the Gisborne to Wairarapa. South Island, rain in the west, with some heavy falls, high cloud increasing elsewhere, and scattered late rain in Nelson, Otago and Southland.

Thursday
North Island, rain in the west followed by showers,scattered rain in the east. South Island, showers for most, and becoming colder.

Friday
North Island, showers in the west, and a few coastal showers in the east, fine elsewhere. South Island, showers for most, but fine in Nelson Marlborough,inland Canterbury and Otago.

Chatham Islands
Showers on Monday and Tuesday, with strong or gale westerlies. Mostly cloudy on Wednesday, and winds tending northwest.

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[OhauitiWeather]

Our first national holiday in almost half a year is nearly upon us - and the forecast is fairly typical for the October long weekend says WeatherWatch.co.nz.
 
The weather news authority says there will be a large high in the picture - but it will be centred north of New Zealand, allowing for lows to challenge it from the south.
 
Head Weather Analyst Philip Duncan says holidaymakers should prepare for some rain, but the data at this early stage is leaning towards dry and windy for many regions. "It looks as though we'll have a large high trying to spread towards us from Australia but it may be a little too far north to fully protect the country. That means we'll see a battle between low and high pressure directly over us and that can mean windy weather".
 
The latest forecast shows a high in the north Tasman Sea bringing mostly dry weather to northern and eastern New Zealand. However a a weak low and south west change on the Friday and Saturday could see a few showers mostly in the west and south. Chance of rain is 60% for the South Island and drops to 30% as you head north.

"Generally speaking there is a moderate risk of showers on Friday and Saturday then mostly dry for Sunday and Monday but perhaps a bit windy for central and southern areas" says Mr Duncan.
 
WeatherWatch.co.nz will bring you a detailed forecast next week, with updates, as we head towards the first national holiday since the start of winter.
 

- WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...air-pressure-over-nz

[OhauitiWeather]

High pressure will be the main weather-maker this week. That will help the North Island to see some fairly settled weather for the middle of this week, the western Mainland could still be a bit showery.
 
Tomorrow, the high will still be far enough off that showery conditions will still be found dotting the country. The best chance for rain will be about central New Zealand and the deep south. Shower chances are small and whatever falls should be pretty light.
 
On Tuesday, that high moves east a bit and gets a little closer to the North Island. That will settled the weather for the North Island. However, it will also tilt the winds coming on shore on the western South Island to set the stage for some pretty showery weather.
 
In fact on Wednesday, whilst the North Island sees another settled day, the western South Island will see even more rain. Current model data indicates that some of that the West Coast could see some heavy rain.
 
On Thursday, the high dies off and both islands will see unsettled weather. The best chance for rain will still be on the South Island, but a few showers may start showing up on the North Island too. That will remain the case into Friday as well.
 
The holiday weekend is also looking a bit iffy for those with outdoor plans. WeatherWatch.co.nz Head Weather Analyst Philip Duncan says holidaymakers should prepare for some rain, but the data at this early stage is leaning towards dry and windy for many regions. "It looks as though we'll have a large high trying to spread towards us from Australia but it may be a little too far north to fully protect the country. That means we'll see a battle between low and high pressure directly over us and that can mean windy weather".
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...inates-upcoming-week

[OhauitiWeather]

After a day of very rough weather on Saturday, today seemed pretty quiet. That’s despite the bursts of wind and rain that showed up about parts of the North Island.
 
Monday will be another day of seeing a variety of conditions across about the North Island. The morning will be settled for much of the island. The only exception is eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne where there could be some lingering showers. Auckland, of course, could also see a rogue shower or two.
 
By late morning, showers are expected about the lower North Island. That means Wellington, Wanganui and New Plymouth could also see some precipitation at midday.
 
By evening, there threat for showers about the NI diminishes with just a few showers expected.
 
On the South Island, the West Coast and deep south could see some showers, especially in the morning. The eastern regions should be dry.
 

WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...-unsettled-outlook-0

[OhauitiWeather]

The ridge of high pressure that will bring some settled weather to the North Island early this week is moving off the coast of Australia this morning.

The high will strengthen as it moves very slowly east. As it gets stronger and closer to the North Island, it will reduce the chances for precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the high is expected remain northwest of the country. That means it probably will have the opposite effect on the western South Island. The onshore flow will bring more rain to the West Coast starting late on Tuesday.

Current model data indicates that heavy rain will be possible on Wednesday for both the West Coast and Nelson.

The high will start to break down on Thursday. This will mean the North Island’s umbrella will close, and precipitation chances will go back up for both Thursday and for Friday.

 
WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...ng-its-way-toward-nz

[OhauitiWeather]

We take a look at the week ahead and the latest forecast for the start of the first long weekend in nearly half a year - in a nutshell? "Messy".

Link toVideo:



WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weather-video-countdown-labour-weekend

[OhauitiWeather]

It looks as though the weather forecast this Labour Weekend will be its usual changeable self says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the prediction for the long weekend is fairly "typical" of Labour Weekend.

"We have high pressure to the north of New Zealand and some aggressive lows in the Southern Ocean.  This weekend there'll be a battle of air pressure over the country and it looks as though the high won't win" says Mr Duncan.

So the forecast currently calls for a strong south west flow across the country with a potential southerly on Sunday zipping up the eastern coastline too, while heavy rain may move up the entire western coastline during Sunday and Monday.

Blustery west to south west winds could mean sunny weather for northern and eastern regions too - although if winds tilt more southerly it would mean rain or showers up the east coast too.

Mr Duncan says in short the weekend will be messy with a mixture of sunny, dry, weather, strong winds and a 60% chance of a period of rain or showers for most regions, especially in the south and west.

Sunniest and driest areas are in the north of both islands, such as Nelson, Marlborough, Northland, eastern Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty.

The cold change over the weekend may see some parts of Southland and Otago struggle to even make double digits and could again bring snow to the southern ski fields.  There's a 30% chance of snow in Queenstown on Sunday night/Monday.

Sea Temperatures

And what about taking a dip in the sea?  If you're brave enough to venture into the water this long weekend you may want to put on a wet suit first. 

Sea surface temperatures in the upper North Island are only in their mid-teens, dropping into the low teens for the lower North Island, around 10 to 12 degrees for the upper South Island and just 9 or 10 degrees around Dunedin.
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See exactly where the fronts, lows, wind and rain will be this long weekend using our interactive maps page - powered by Weathermap.
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps


WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/messy-labour-weekend-forecast

[OhauitiWeather]

Another surge of severe weather will spread across New Zealand over Wednesday and Thursday. We also take a look at the start of Labour Weekend - it's an unsettled forecast that sees a mix of wind, rain, showers but also sun this upcoming long weekend. And with end with a sunset photo from Auckland's Hillsborough Rd.

Link to Video:



WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...ther-returns-weekend

[OhauitiWeather]

Overnight tonight and tomorrow morning a front moves over the country from the southwest, preceding it will be strong northwesterlies and behind it strong sou'westers.


 
Northwesterlies possibly gusting to gale force are likely tomorrow morning from Canterbury through to Gisborne say WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters.

Gales are most likely about the upper South Island and lower North Island, winds will equally be as strong in the afternoon as southwesterlies move through perhaps tending more westerly about the North Island's east coast.
 
Northwesterlies will be strong in the morning about the North Island's west coast also but the real kicker will be the west to southwest change later in the morning which will likely bring gale force conditions to much of the west coast.
 
Strong to gale westerlies are also likely for much of the day along the West Coast of the South Island down through into Southland and Otago, coastal areas being the main focus for the strongest winds.
 
Areas of rain may be heavy as this frontal activity moves over the country Thursday morning so take the rain jacket - but leave the brolly at home unless you want to fly away like Mary Poppins, ideally not going outside works just as well too.
 
Homepage image / 18th October 1pm wind map - weathermap.co.nz
 

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...-winds-many-tomorrow

[OhauitiWeather]

This Labour Weekend is certainly a messy one to predict weather-wise says WeatherWatch.co.nz, as our chaotic and wild spring weather pattern continues across New Zealand and the South Pacific.
 
WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say most regions will genuinely have a mixed bag of weather this weekend. Sun, rain, wind, warm and cold all in there.

In short - we have a strong west to south west flow which will continue until Sunday night. By Monday a new and large low in the Tasman Sea will pose more severe weather threats to New Zealand - afterall, it is October!
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The Details...
On Friday a strong sou'west flow across New Zealand will mean fast moving showers for some, very cold for others, and sunny for those sheltered most from sou'westers (like Nelson for example). Winds will reach gale force in exposed areas south of Auckland but will ease as the day goes on - for some the winds may not ease entirely but should ease back from their peaks over Thursday and early Friday.
 
On Saturday the nation has a brief breather, unless you live on the West Coast and the Deep South. High pressure north of New Zealand will dip far enough south to bring a mostly settled Saturday to the upper North Island and while winds will build for central NZ and the South Island's east coast, it will be mostly dry - and slightly warmer. Heavy rain returns to the West Coast though. Watch for rain warnings. A cold blast is also going to move into Southland and Otago bringing snow flurries at night to a few hundred metres (but above the main centres) and sleet lower down to 100 or 200 metres - mostly overnight Queenstown may see an overnight flurry higher up on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Rain moves into the North Islands west coast at night/into Sunday morning.
 
Sunday and that cold change really impacts the lower South Island with single digit highs or low double digit highs for Southland and Otago. Canterbury may reach the low teens. In the North Island the data is still a bit conflicted about timing and just how much rain will fall - but either way Sunday has the highest chance for rain for the North Island, still around 60 to 70% confidence. Strong west to north west winds will ease by evening.
 
Labour Day Monday sees a dynamic shift in our weather - away from the blustery west to south west flow, to a very large low in the Tasman Sea. Early models pick this low will fill the entire Tasman Sea area - fuelled by cold southerlies coming in from the south and warm, moisture rich sub-tropical air from the north. In short it's a good recipe for deepening this low and some models are picking strong northerlies to strong easterlies - and rain will move in later on in the day. One to watch for further weather warnings - and one to watch for the start of next week regardless of the long weekend.
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Stay on top of the unsettled weather this long weekend...
Flying? Check our wind maps to see windy hot spots for your flights - domestic or anywhere around the world, we have your global wind maps covered.

Driving? Check out our rain forecast maps - see where the rain will be, how heavy it will be and just how long it will last.

Going by Ferry? All the swell maps are there for you - so you can see Cook Strait swell conditions or local harbour conditions.
All weather maps - going out 14 days - can be found here
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Check the forecasts...
WeatherWatch.co.nz now has detailed forecasts for Auckland, Hamilton and Christchurch (and next year we roll out many more).

See our detailed forecasts - and the latest raw data forecasts for most other main centres in NZ - by clicking here.
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(c) WeatherWatch.co.nz - all our forecasts are independent of the government forecaster MetService
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/...cast-travel-forecast