10,600 people leave ChristchurchMICHAEL WRIGHT
Last updated 12:09 08/10/2012
LATEST: Christchurch's population dropped by almost 10,000 people after the February 2011 earthquake but is expected to start growing again this year, figures show.
Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) figures reveal that Christchurch lost 10,600 people in the year to June 2011, but natural growth, such as births exceeding deaths, reduced the overall drop to 8900.
The 2.4 per cent drop was a marked switch for the city, which had an annual pre-quake population growth of 1 per cent (about 3800 people).
SNZ's regional population projections show Christchurch should start growing at an average of 1500 people a year from 2012 to 2016 and 2500 a year from 2017 to 2031.
The numbers assume a zero migration rate until 2016, reflecting ''some further relocation of Christchurch residents to neighbouring districts and beyond, notably from red-zone areas''.
SNZ predicts an average migration of 1300 people a year after that, allowing ''for some inflows of workers to assist rebuilding''.
Christchurch's neighbouring districts are set to benefit from the exodus.
Selwyn shares the highest projected population growth rate over 25 years with Queenstown-Lakes; both are predicted to grow at 2.2 per cent annually between 2006 and 2031.
Waimakariri is the next fastest-growing district at 1.6 per cent.
Waimakariri mayor David Ayers said the numbers were ''not a surprise at all'', and the district had been planning for even faster growth.
The council's 10-year plan predicted the district would hit 60,000 by 2022; SNZ's projections are about five years behind that.
''We've got plenty of provision for that sort of growth,'' Ayers said.
''In terms of our urban areas we've certainly planned water and sewer [expansion].''
Most of the growth would come in the ''triangle'', Ayers said, between Rangiora, Kaiapoi and Woodend/Pegasus.
''It's good for local business. It does provide some obvious challenges in terms of traffic and planning.
''You have expanding demand for community facilities and in our two major towns [Rangiora and Kaiapoi] there are challenges around central town traffic [and] parking.
''It's not something we're not used to.''
Of New Zealand's 67 territorial authority areas, 44 are projected to have more people in 2031 than in 2011.
Auckland is set to claim even more of the population, with 38 of every 100 New Zealanders expected to be living there in 2031, compared with 34 in 2011.
By 2031 it will have 2 million of New Zealand's estimated 5.2 million people.
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February 26, 2013, 07:58:46 PM