El Niño looking more likely this coming summer

[OhauitiWeather]

Conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently on the brink of El Niño, and it is likely El Niño will develop during the early spring period. In the New Zealand region, however, lower pressures to the north of the country, and higher pressures to the south, are likely to dominate for the August-October period. Thus, the stronger than normal spring westerlies often associated with El Nino periods are not expected to be very prominent in the coming August-October period.

Early spring air temperatures are likely to be near average or above average for all regions of the country. Nevertheless, cold snaps, frosts and snowfalls typical of early spring may still occur from time to time. Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near normal for the season as a whole.

August-October rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal or above normal in the north of the North Island, below normal for the eastern South Island, and near normal in all other regions.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecaster Aaron Wilkinson mentions, “There is a slightly increased risk of thunderstorms in Canterbury during the summer in El Nino conditions which interests me most of all, could be a better season for storm chasing on the Canterbury Plains”.

NIWA / WeatherWatch.co.nz
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/el-ni%C3%B1o-looking-more-likely-coming-summer

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[Weather Display]

its interesting though that the SOI has come back from being negative
and the weather pattern lately has been more like la nina
but yes eastern pacific is warmer than normal
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

also some places in the artic area have sea temperatures way up on normal over their summer
been like that for a while now

[Mark]

Climate models continue to suggest that a weak El Niño event or warm neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the remainder of 2012.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

[Suezy]

Don't like this bit David

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecaster Aaron Wilkinson mentions, “There is a slightly increased risk of thunderstorms in Canterbury during the summer in El Nino conditions which interests me most of all, could be a better season for storm chasing on the Canterbury Plains”

My dog Suez will be really upset as even with a big gust of wind she is still freaked out - after the quakes.
Also lost a weather station a few years back from a lightening strike and the one I have at the moment is up a meta; pole in the paddock.  Not joyous news for West Melton.

[Mark]

El Niño-Southern Oscillation update
 
Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific have remained near El Niño thresholds over the past week. The tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to warm over the central Pacific; however, trade winds and cloudiness near the Date Line have yet to reach El Niño thresholds. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology show the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values close to or above El Niño thresholds before returning to neutral values towards the end of 2012 or early 2013
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

[Rwood]

It's purely speculative. The operative word is "slightly".

[Weather Display]

maybe it will be a 'claytons" el nino
we had one of those once